GOI RESPONSE TO ROCKET ATTACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001483 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PTER KPAL KWBG IS SUBJECT: GOI RESPONSE TO ROCKET ATTACKS REF: JERUSALEM 0899 AND PREVIOUS CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR RICHARD H. JONES; REASONS 1.4 (B, D). ¶1. (C) FOLLOWING A SECURITY CABINET MEETING MAY 16, PM EHUD OLMERT ANNOUNCED THAT THE IDF WOULD CARRY OUT STRIKES AGAINST QASSAM LAUNCHERS, HAMAS MILITARY COMMANDERS AND "TERRORIST INFRASTRUCTURE." THE PM'S SPOKESPERSON ANNOUNCED THAT "ISRAEL CANNOT CONTINUE TO SHOW RESTRAINT WHEN ITS CITIZENS ARE BEING ATTACKED" AND SAID THAT A "HARSH AND SEVERE RESPONSE" HAD BEEN AGREED. FM TZIPI LIVNI HAS TAKEN A PUBLIC ROLE IN CALLING ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEMAND AN END TO THE ATTACKS. SHE HAS ALSO PLACED BLAME SQUARELY ON THE SHOULDERS OF THE NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT, SAYING "ISRAEL VIEWS THE PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT AS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SITUATION." ISRAELI AIR STRIKES ON RAFAH AND GAZA CITY ON MAY 16 AND 17, AS WELL AS THE LIMITED MOVEMENT BY ARMORED VEHICLES ACROSS THE BORDER FENCE NEAR BEIT LAHIYAH, DEMONSTRATE THAT THE IDF IS IMPLEMENTING THE NEW SECURITY PLAN AGREED TO BY THE SECURITY CABINET. ¶2. (C) THE DECISION FOLLOWED WEEKS OF IDF BRIEFINGS FOR THE GOI ON MULTIPLE OPTIONS FOR DEALING WITH THE VIOLENCE IN GAZA, RANGING FROM FULL-SCALE GROUND INVASIONS THROUGH SMALLER COVERT OPERATIONS. ALTHOUGH MANY MILITARY PERSONNEL ARE PREDICTING A WIDER GROUND OFFENSIVE AT SOME POINT, THE IDF STEPS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN LIMITED TO REINFORCING ITS SECURITY ZONE AROUND GAZA, EXPANDING THE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT FOR THREATS NEAR THAT ZONE (ESPECIALLY QASSAM LAUNCH TEAMS), AND PREPARING RETALIATORY AIR STRIKES AGAINST KEY TERRORISTS AND LOGISTIC INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORTING QASSAM CELLS. A DAO VISIT TO THE GAZA BORDER ON MAY 16 SHOWED NO SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING LARGE-SCALE GROUND INCURSION AT THIS TIME. ¶3. (C) DESPITE THESE MOVES, PUBLIC PRESSURE IS MOUNTING FOR THE ALREADY EMBATTLED GOI TO END THE ONGOING -- AND INCREASINGLY ACCURATE -- ROCKET ATTACKS BY WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY. THE TELEVISED SPECTACLE OF SDEROT RESIDENTS FLEEING THE TOWN ON BUSES PROVIDED BY MULTI-MILLIONAIRE ARKADY GAYDEMAK, OR SHELTERING IN UNHARDENED HOMES, PROVIDED IMAGES REMINISCENT OF LAST SUMMER'S WAR WITH HIZBALLAH. PM OLMERT PUBLICLY OPPOSED EVACUATION, ARGUING THAT SUCH A MOVE WOULD GENERATE "PRECISELY THE SORT OF SCENES THAT HAMAS IS WAITING FOR... I DON'T NEED TO COMPETE WITH GAYDEMAK'S BUSES." HOWEVER, HE AGREED WITH A PLAN PROPOSED BY DEFMIN PERETZ TO PROVIDE A "BREAK" FOR THE ELDERLY AND INFIRM AT SOLDIERS' WELFARE FACILITIES IN ISRAEL. SDEROT MAYOR ELI MOYAL, FOR HIS PART, TOLD POLOFF THAT THE TOWN WOULD EVACUATE IN THE FACE OF THE RENEWED TERRORIST THREAT. HE ALSO EXPECTS THE GOI TO GET TOUGHER ON THE GAZA EXTREMISTS, TELLING THE MEDIA THAT "THE ANSWER IS NOT TO PROTECT SDEROT; THE ANSWER IS TO KILL TERRORISTS." OPPOSITION LEADER BINYAMIN NETANYAHU TODAY URGED THE GOVERNMENT TO UNDERTAKE A LIMITED GROUND INCURSION AND TO CUT-OFF ELECTRICITY AND WATER SUPPLIES FROM ISRAEL TO THE GAZA STRIP. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: ANY QASSAM STRIKE OR SUICIDE BOMBING RESULTING IN MASS CASUALTIES WILL ELICIT A FORCEFUL RESPONSE WITH RAMIFICATIONS THAT COULD AFFECT THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN RELATIONSHIP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ANY KIDNAPPING ATTEMPT LIKE LAST SUMMER'S ABDUCTION OF GILAD SHALIT WOULD LEAD TO A SIMILAR, FORCEFUL RESPONSE. AS THE GOI RESPONDS TO THE QASSAM ATTACKS, ITS ACTIONS WILL ALSO BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF THE LEBANON WAR AND ITS DESIRE TO BEGIN REBUILDING PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE IDF. END COMMENT. ********************************************* ******************** VISIT EMBASSY TEL AVIV'S CLASSIFIED WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/NEA/TELAVIV YOU CAN ALSO ACCESS THIS SITE THROUGH THE STATE DEPARTMENT'S CLASSIFIED SIPRNET WEBSITE. ********************************************* ******************** JONES