Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07TELAVIV133
2007-01-11 16:24:00
SECRET
Embassy Tel Aviv
Cable title:
ISRAELI POL-MIL BUREAU CHIEF ON RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHTV #0133/01 0111624 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 111624Z JAN 07 FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8738 INFO RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 9248 RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 2242 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 1863 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0291 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T TEL AVIV 000133
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017
TAGS: PREL KNNP ETTC MASS SY IR EG RS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI POL-MIL BUREAU CHIEF ON RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE
TO IRAN, SYRIA, EGYPT AND INDIA
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
S E C R E T TEL AVIV 000133
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017
TAGS: PREL KNNP ETTC MASS SY IR EG RS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI POL-MIL BUREAU CHIEF ON RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE
TO IRAN, SYRIA, EGYPT AND INDIA
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S) On January 8, Israeli MOD Political-Military Bureau
Chief Amos Gilad shared with the Ambassador the results of
his recent visit to Russia and meetings with Russian
intelligence officials to discuss Iran and Syria. Gilad said
that the Russians believe it will take twice as long as the
Israelis estimate for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons
capability. His sense is that because they do not feel as
pressed for time as Israel and the U.S., the Russians prefer
to delay efforts of the U.S. and like-minded countries to get
Iran to stop its nuclear weapons program. Gilad said the
Russians made it clear to him that they are more afraid of a
military strike on Iran -- which they believe would further
destabilize the region -- than Iran acquiring a nuclear
weapon. The Russians plan to continue with the building of
the Bushehr reactor in Iran, and are concerned that sanctions
will only further radicalize Iran. Gilad's Russian
interlocutors told him that President Putin warned Syrian
President Assad that Syria-Russia relations would be damaged
if the Syrians transfer any more Russian arms to Hizballah.
The Russians also told Gilad they will no longer provide
"offensive" arms to Syria, but still intend to supply Syria
and Iran with "defensive" weapons systems, including
sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles. Gilad said the
Russians pressed him to secure GOI agreement to mount Israeli
radars on Russian MiG-29's they hope to sell to India, and
reacted with consternation when he told them Israel could not
agree to providing the radars as they contain sensitive U.S.
content. According to Gilad, the Russians said they will
reluctantly support U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation and
plan to provide similar assistance to Egypt. END SUMMARY.
-------------- --
GILAD: RUSSIANS ARE USING IRAN AGAINST THE U.S.
-------------- --
2. (S) Noting that it was his first visit to Russia, Gilad
said that he met with Russians that "Israelis usually do not
meet with" during his three-days in the country. His
interlocutors included officials from the Russian Defense
Ministry, the head of Russian military intelligence (GRU),a
General Dmitriev (whom Gilad characterized as an important
figure in Russia's weapons supply chain),a Mr. Chemtsov
(whom Gilad described as a close friend of President Putin),
Deputy National Security Advisor Nazarov, and Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Kislyak. Gilad said that Defense Minister
Sergey Ivanov declined to meet with him. As a result of his
many meetings, Gilad came away with the view that Russia
hates the U.S., wants to become an empire again, and feels
empowered because of its oil: "They see cooperation with the
U.S. as endangering their own strategic interests. They see
the U.S. as very weak and tied down in Iraq. They see NATO
pinned down in Afghanistan, and Israel struggling with
terrorism." Gilad said that his very candid, 90-minute
meeting with GRU chief Korabelnikov convinced him that the
GRU remains as hostile to the U.S. and Israel as during the
Soviet period. He added that his Russian interlocutors view
Israel as part of Russia's "empire," as Israel contains, in
their view, a million former Russian citizens.
3. (S) On Iran, Gilad said his impression is that Russia is
more active in Iran than he previously thought, and that it
is using Iran against the U.S. Gilad said he was told that
Russia does not want to see Iran obtain a military nuclear
capability, but is more fearful of a military attack on Iran
that would, in Russia's view, destabilize Iran and the
region. Gilad noted that the Russians appear less concerned
than the U.S. and Israel on the timeline, as Russia believes
that Iran is far from possessing the required technology, and
has not yet produced type P-2 centrifuges. Russia, he said,
believes that it will take Iran twice as long as Israeli
estimates to achieve a nuclear weapons capability. Gilad
suggested that this means Russia feels it has some breathing
space with which to use Iran against the U.S. He said he was
also told by his interlocutors that Russia intends to proceed
with constructing the research reactor at Bushehr, despite
recent delays due to shortages of electricity and money.
4. (S) Russia, he said, clearly believes it can resolve the
Iran nuclear crisis diplomatically and has the time to do so.
He said his Russian interlocutors, while conveying a sense
of power, seemed concerned that sanctions would radicalize
Iran further, and believe that Iran is determined to obtain a
military nuclear capability. His interlocutors told him that
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Larijani favors an
international, diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.
They said that Russia has no evidence that Iran has a
clandestine nuclear program. Instead, Gilad's interlocutors
said that they believe Iran wants to be on the brink of
having a nuclear military capability -- what Gilad termed,
"the Japanese option." Gilad said the Russians told him they
are still trying to convince Iran to agree to enrich uranium
in Russia, but that to date, the Iranians have said they will
never agree to discuss the Russian offer, even if it is meant
to preserve their national honor.
5. (S) Gilad said that his interlocutors refused to answer
his question on whether they would supply missiles to Iran.
Gilad interpreted this as meaning that they will provide
anti-aircraft systems, including sophisticated ones similar
to the Patriot anti-missile system.
-------------- --
RUSSIA TO SUPPLY SYRIA WITH "DEFENSIVE" WEAPONS
-------------- --
6. (S) Gilad said that his Russian interlocutors told him
that Russia would no longer transfer offensive weapon systems
to Syria, but would continue to provide Syria with
sophisticated "defensive" weapons, and plan to upgrade
Syria's anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). He stressed that
this will bolster Syrian confidence unhelpfully. According
to Gilad, the Russians were "very angry" with Syria for
transferring Russian weapons to Hizballah during the Second
Lebanon War. He was told that Putin warned Syrian President
Assad that another such incident would "damage Russian-Syrian
relations." Gilad said the Russians told him they will not
supply the Syrians with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, "Igla"
man-portable air defense systems, or "Iskander" SCUD-like
surface-to-surface missiles.
--------------
RUSSIAN COOPERATION WITH EGYPT AND INDIA
--------------
7. (S) According to Gilad, the Russians told him they will
offer Egypt civilian nuclear capabilities in a cooperative
effort with the U.S. The Russians justified this planned
transfer of technology on the basis that it is an "economic
issue," and that the knowledge, technology, and know-how
offered will comply with international conventions. Gilad
said that in off-line discussions, his Russian interlocutors
told him they suspect Egyptian intentions, but did not
elaborate.
8. (S) Gilad said that he discussed with his Russian
interlocutors Israel's growing relationship with India. He
said the Russians did not express concern with this, but
criticized the new strategic relationship between the U.S and
India. At the same time, his interlocutors told him that
Russia will reluctantly support U.S. civil nuclear
cooperation with India because Russia views it as a "special
case." India is acting responsibly in the nuclear arena and
it genuinely needs civil nuclear power for electricity. The
Russians told Gilad that they are pleased with the standards
of inspection established for India, and that Russia will be
cooperative within the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) as India
is not a proliferator.
9. (S) According to Gilad, the Russians pressed him on
Israel's unwillingness to mount radars on MiG-29's it hopes
to sell to India, and expressed consternation when he
explained to them that Israel cannot supply the radars as
they contain sensitive U.S. content.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2017
TAGS: PREL KNNP ETTC MASS SY IR EG RS
SUBJECT: ISRAELI POL-MIL BUREAU CHIEF ON RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE
TO IRAN, SYRIA, EGYPT AND INDIA
Classified By: Ambassador Richard H. Jones. Reasons: 1.4 (b)(d)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (S) On January 8, Israeli MOD Political-Military Bureau
Chief Amos Gilad shared with the Ambassador the results of
his recent visit to Russia and meetings with Russian
intelligence officials to discuss Iran and Syria. Gilad said
that the Russians believe it will take twice as long as the
Israelis estimate for Iran to achieve a nuclear weapons
capability. His sense is that because they do not feel as
pressed for time as Israel and the U.S., the Russians prefer
to delay efforts of the U.S. and like-minded countries to get
Iran to stop its nuclear weapons program. Gilad said the
Russians made it clear to him that they are more afraid of a
military strike on Iran -- which they believe would further
destabilize the region -- than Iran acquiring a nuclear
weapon. The Russians plan to continue with the building of
the Bushehr reactor in Iran, and are concerned that sanctions
will only further radicalize Iran. Gilad's Russian
interlocutors told him that President Putin warned Syrian
President Assad that Syria-Russia relations would be damaged
if the Syrians transfer any more Russian arms to Hizballah.
The Russians also told Gilad they will no longer provide
"offensive" arms to Syria, but still intend to supply Syria
and Iran with "defensive" weapons systems, including
sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles. Gilad said the
Russians pressed him to secure GOI agreement to mount Israeli
radars on Russian MiG-29's they hope to sell to India, and
reacted with consternation when he told them Israel could not
agree to providing the radars as they contain sensitive U.S.
content. According to Gilad, the Russians said they will
reluctantly support U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation and
plan to provide similar assistance to Egypt. END SUMMARY.
-------------- --
GILAD: RUSSIANS ARE USING IRAN AGAINST THE U.S.
-------------- --
2. (S) Noting that it was his first visit to Russia, Gilad
said that he met with Russians that "Israelis usually do not
meet with" during his three-days in the country. His
interlocutors included officials from the Russian Defense
Ministry, the head of Russian military intelligence (GRU),a
General Dmitriev (whom Gilad characterized as an important
figure in Russia's weapons supply chain),a Mr. Chemtsov
(whom Gilad described as a close friend of President Putin),
Deputy National Security Advisor Nazarov, and Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Kislyak. Gilad said that Defense Minister
Sergey Ivanov declined to meet with him. As a result of his
many meetings, Gilad came away with the view that Russia
hates the U.S., wants to become an empire again, and feels
empowered because of its oil: "They see cooperation with the
U.S. as endangering their own strategic interests. They see
the U.S. as very weak and tied down in Iraq. They see NATO
pinned down in Afghanistan, and Israel struggling with
terrorism." Gilad said that his very candid, 90-minute
meeting with GRU chief Korabelnikov convinced him that the
GRU remains as hostile to the U.S. and Israel as during the
Soviet period. He added that his Russian interlocutors view
Israel as part of Russia's "empire," as Israel contains, in
their view, a million former Russian citizens.
3. (S) On Iran, Gilad said his impression is that Russia is
more active in Iran than he previously thought, and that it
is using Iran against the U.S. Gilad said he was told that
Russia does not want to see Iran obtain a military nuclear
capability, but is more fearful of a military attack on Iran
that would, in Russia's view, destabilize Iran and the
region. Gilad noted that the Russians appear less concerned
than the U.S. and Israel on the timeline, as Russia believes
that Iran is far from possessing the required technology, and
has not yet produced type P-2 centrifuges. Russia, he said,
believes that it will take Iran twice as long as Israeli
estimates to achieve a nuclear weapons capability. Gilad
suggested that this means Russia feels it has some breathing
space with which to use Iran against the U.S. He said he was
also told by his interlocutors that Russia intends to proceed
with constructing the research reactor at Bushehr, despite
recent delays due to shortages of electricity and money.
4. (S) Russia, he said, clearly believes it can resolve the
Iran nuclear crisis diplomatically and has the time to do so.
He said his Russian interlocutors, while conveying a sense
of power, seemed concerned that sanctions would radicalize
Iran further, and believe that Iran is determined to obtain a
military nuclear capability. His interlocutors told him that
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Larijani favors an
international, diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.
They said that Russia has no evidence that Iran has a
clandestine nuclear program. Instead, Gilad's interlocutors
said that they believe Iran wants to be on the brink of
having a nuclear military capability -- what Gilad termed,
"the Japanese option." Gilad said the Russians told him they
are still trying to convince Iran to agree to enrich uranium
in Russia, but that to date, the Iranians have said they will
never agree to discuss the Russian offer, even if it is meant
to preserve their national honor.
5. (S) Gilad said that his interlocutors refused to answer
his question on whether they would supply missiles to Iran.
Gilad interpreted this as meaning that they will provide
anti-aircraft systems, including sophisticated ones similar
to the Patriot anti-missile system.
-------------- --
RUSSIA TO SUPPLY SYRIA WITH "DEFENSIVE" WEAPONS
-------------- --
6. (S) Gilad said that his Russian interlocutors told him
that Russia would no longer transfer offensive weapon systems
to Syria, but would continue to provide Syria with
sophisticated "defensive" weapons, and plan to upgrade
Syria's anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). He stressed that
this will bolster Syrian confidence unhelpfully. According
to Gilad, the Russians were "very angry" with Syria for
transferring Russian weapons to Hizballah during the Second
Lebanon War. He was told that Putin warned Syrian President
Assad that another such incident would "damage Russian-Syrian
relations." Gilad said the Russians told him they will not
supply the Syrians with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, "Igla"
man-portable air defense systems, or "Iskander" SCUD-like
surface-to-surface missiles.
--------------
RUSSIAN COOPERATION WITH EGYPT AND INDIA
--------------
7. (S) According to Gilad, the Russians told him they will
offer Egypt civilian nuclear capabilities in a cooperative
effort with the U.S. The Russians justified this planned
transfer of technology on the basis that it is an "economic
issue," and that the knowledge, technology, and know-how
offered will comply with international conventions. Gilad
said that in off-line discussions, his Russian interlocutors
told him they suspect Egyptian intentions, but did not
elaborate.
8. (S) Gilad said that he discussed with his Russian
interlocutors Israel's growing relationship with India. He
said the Russians did not express concern with this, but
criticized the new strategic relationship between the U.S and
India. At the same time, his interlocutors told him that
Russia will reluctantly support U.S. civil nuclear
cooperation with India because Russia views it as a "special
case." India is acting responsibly in the nuclear arena and
it genuinely needs civil nuclear power for electricity. The
Russians told Gilad that they are pleased with the standards
of inspection established for India, and that Russia will be
cooperative within the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) as India
is not a proliferator.
9. (S) According to Gilad, the Russians pressed him on
Israel's unwillingness to mount radars on MiG-29's it hopes
to sell to India, and expressed consternation when he
explained to them that Israel cannot supply the radars as
they contain sensitive U.S. content.
********************************************* ********************
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv
You can also access this site through the State Department's
Classified SIPRNET website.
********************************************* ********************
JONES