WINOGRAD IN APRIL: OLMERT'S CRUELEST MONTH?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001257 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2012 TAGS: PGOV EFIN PINR IS LE SUBJECT: WINOGRAD IN APRIL: OLMERT'S CRUELEST MONTH? COMMITTEE'S INTERIM REPORT EXPECTED ON APRIL 30 REF: A. TEL AVIV 1229 ¶B. TEL AVIV 803 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Israel is on tenterhooks, ready to dissect the long-awaited "interim report" of the Winograd Committee that PM Olmert's cabinet appointed to look into the events of the "Second Lebanon War." There have been no known leaks of the contents of this report, which is cloaked in secrecy pending publication of an unclassified version on April 30 (1700 local in Hebrew and in English at www.vadaatwino.co.il). Israelis of all POLITICAL stripes anticipate that the report will be critical of its POLITICAL and military leadership, but Israelis disagree whether the interim report alone will be sharp enough to deliver a fatal political blow to PM Olmert. Meanwhile, the State Comptroller has announced yet another allegation of corruption against Olmert. The stain of so many scandals, real or alleged, combined with the weight of the Winograd reports are an increasingly heavy burden for Olmert (as well as for Israelis),but he shows every sign of wanting to tough it out. End Summary. -------------- Olmert Beleaguered, but Undaunted -------------- ¶2. (C) The Winograd Committee is not empowered to recommend the resignation of the Prime Minister or other officials, and Olmert's Justice Minister, Daniel Friedmann, has publicly expressed his view that the committee cannot obligate the Prime Minister to resign. Nonetheless, some well-informed Israeli observers believe that if it is sufficiently scathing in its conclusions, it could influence public opinion or Kadima Party cadres, and thus instigate a flood of calls for the resignation of the Prime Minister. (The Agranat Commission's interim report on the Yom Kippur War of 1973 called for the dismissal of the IDF Chief of Staff, but PM Golda Meir took responsibility and resigned days after the report was issued.) Our opposition party contacts tell us that Rabin Square in downtown Tel Aviv has been reserved for possible protest demonstrations in May. Other informed Israelis speculate that even a critical report will not trigger a POLITICAL tidal wave that would be strong enough to unseat Ehud Olmert, who has vowed to press on despite his unpopularity. At a recent speech to a UJA delegation from New York at the Knesset, Olmert was asked by an aide to lean away from the microphone, to which he responded that he would fight anyone who wanted him to lean back. He said his only interest is to move forward. -------------- Coincidence of New Corruption Allegations -------------- ¶3. (C) Corruption investigations have already sidelined Olmert's Finance Minister (ref A),and Attorney General Mazuz has ruled that Olmert cannot hold this portfolio (due to an ongoing investigation into his role in the privatization of Bank Leumi). On April 25, State Comptroller Lindenstrauss upped the ante, and asked the Attorney General to launch an investigation into a ten million-dollar grant that Olmert approved while he was serving as Minister of Industry and Trade in 2003. According to Lindenstrauss, who has made public exposure of corruption in Israeli officialdom his hallmark, the Olmert's intervention in the award of an Investment Center grant to a friend who represented Silicat Industries constituted a conflict of interests that "arouses suspicions of corruption." It is too early to tell whether a formal, criminal investigation will be launched by Mazuz, or when, if ever, it would result in an indictment. Lindenstrauss is expected to issue another report shortly on alleged shady real-estate dealings pertaining to a Jerusalem home previously owned by Olmert. -------------- Winograd Could Influence Labor Primary -------------- ¶4. (C) April 30 also coincides with the formal start of the Labor Party primary campaign, which will culminate in elections on May 28. Labor MK Ami Ayalon could get a boost in this race if the interim report hammers the current chairman, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, or the other front-runner, Ehud Barak, who as Prime Minister ordered the IDF to withdraw from southern Lebanon in the summer of 2000. Peretz has already promised to leave the Defense Ministry if Winograd were to harshly criticize his leadership, but he has set his eyes on the now-vacant Finance Ministry as his prize should he remain at the helm of Labor. TEL AVIV 00001257 002 OF 002 -------------- Background: Winograd Mandate -------------- ¶5. (U) The five-member "Government Investigative Committee" (so-called "Winograd Committee" in the press) has operated in almost total secrecy since its establishment on September 17, 2006, when Olmert's cabinet asked it to "investigate, and determine findings and conclusions, and ... present recommendations as it sees fit regarding the POLITICAL echelons and the security system as pertains to the range of aspects of the campaign in the north which began on July 12, 2006." The Committee was asked to present its findings "in regard to improving decision-making processes of the political echelon and the heads of the security system in the future, including the material and advice given to the aforesaid officials," and was specifically given the option to present "an intermediate or partial report on issues which it considers urgent to the implementation of its conclusions and recommendations." ¶6. (U) Olmert's appointment of the Winograd committee succeeded in mollifying some of the post-war critics of the performance of the government and IDF, but many were disappointed that a formal Commission of Inquiry (appointed by the Supreme Court rather than the Prime Minister) was not established. Government critics, such as Meretz MK Zahava Gal-On have successfully sued to have some of the transcripts of testimony given to the Winograd Committee released to the public (over the objections of the committee),but the testimony of Olmert, Peretz and Halutz will not be made available until mid-May, after publication of the interim report. -------------- What will the Interim Report Address? -------------- ¶7. (U) On March 14, in response to public pressure and a great deal of media speculation, the Winograd Committee issued a press release outlining what it intended to publish and when (ref B). The interim report, which is now scheduled to be released to the public (in Hebrew and in English at www.vadaatwino.co.il) will include sections that deal with the following topics: -- discussion of the committee's work methods; -- an analysis and general conclusions on the period leading up to the war (i.e. from 2000 until July 12, 2007). -- analysis of the decision to embark on the campaign (i.e. from the July 12 Hizballah abduction of two IDF soldiers on the Lebanon border to the July 17 address of the Prime Minister to the Knesset). This section will include: detailed findings; systemic conclusions; systemic recommendations; and personal conclusions regarding the responsibility of the PM, Defense Minister and former IDF Chief of Staff Halutz concerning the decisions leading up to the start of the campaign and the manner in which they were made. (Note: A distinction is made between "personal conclusions" about performance and a "recommendation" that an individual resign from office. End Note). ¶8. (U) The final report, to be released a few months later, will analyze: all aspects of the fighting (including IDF preparedness); the POLITICAL leadership's decisions during the campaign (including those related to the conditions for a cease-fire and fighting that occurred for two days following the adoption of UNSCR 1701); the relationship between the political and military leaderships regarding the use of force; the general ethos of Israeli society; and, finally, the handling of home front (in coordination with findings on this matter undertaken by the State comptroller). ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CRETZ