GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER NOGHAIDELI REPORTS ON HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000656

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EEB/ISP/IEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017
TAGS: ENRG PREL GG TX
SUBJECT: GEORGIAN PRIME MINISTER NOGHAIDELI REPORTS ON HIS
TRIP TO TURKMENISTAN

REF: TBILISI 632

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Returning from a March 23 visit to Ashgabat,
Georgian Prime Minister Noghaideli told the Ambassador on
March 26 that he found Turkmenistan's President
Berdimuhammedov interested in learning more about the West
and exploring sending more oil through the South Caucasus, in
lieu of current shipments through Iran. Noghaideli said that
the GOT is not ready to open up on-shore reserves to
development by Western companies, but may allow them to work
off-shore in the Caspian. He advised Western companies to
move quickly. He sees the current period as a window of
opportunity for the West before internal forces cause
Berdimuhammedov to become more dictatorial.


2. (C) Noghaideli was disappointed by the cancellation of a
planned meeting with the Abkhaz de facto prime minister to
discuss issues related to the Enguri hydroelectric power
station. He said that the cancellation is further evidence
the Abkhaz can take no action without Russian approval. He
is concerned by upcoming Abkhaz military maneuvers near
Kodori and by the recent murder of two policemen in South
Ossetia. He asked for a strong condemnation of the latter
incident by the United States and Europe.


3. (C) Noghaideli said that Georgia filed a human rights case
in the European Court of Human Rights at this time because
the Government of Russia was unresponsive to Georgian offers
to discuss the treatment of Georgians in Russia and because
court procedures presented a deadline for taking action. End
Summary.

TURKMENISTAN VISIT SHOWS PROMISE OF NEW RELATIONSHIPS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Noghaideli said that President Berdimuhammedov wants
more "western legitimacy" than his predecessor did. He
reiterated that Berdimuhammedov wants to travel to Europe and
the United States, and that it will be good if he is invited
soon, because later it may be hard to convince him to make
such trips.


5. (C) The Georgians talked to the Turkmen about using the
South Caucasus corridor for transport of oil to world
markets. Noghaideli said that 65% of Turkmenistan's oil now
goes to Iran, and Georgia hopes it can capture half of that
trade. The reason for Iran's predominance over the South
Caucasus route is not Iran's strength, he said, but problems
created by Azerbaijan. Therefore, Georgia is organizing
trilateral Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan discussions. More
cooperation from Baku is needed, and the person who will have
to be convinced is President Aliyev, he said.


6. (C) Noghaideli said that Turkmenistan's practice is to
sell its oil in Turkmenistan, and leave transportation up to
the buyer. He would like to convince the Turkmen to be more
active in the South Caucasus corridor and to sell their oil
on the world market. He believes Berdimuhammedov likes the
Georgians' approach. Noghaideli's goal is to get them to try
the South Caucasus route, after which he believes more and
more crude will travel that way.


7. (C) On gas, Noghaideli said that Berdimuhammedov does not
appear ready now to open up Turkmenistan's on-shore reserves
to Western companies for development. However, the
government has never allowed Russian companies to work
off-shore in the Caspian and would likely be willing to allow
western companies to develop its reserves in the Sea. The
companies should look into this possibility as soon as
possible, Noghaideli said. The Turkmen part of the Caspian
is not well explored but it likely holds large reserves of
natural gas, in his opinion. He suggests that western
companies first focus on off-shore development, then
construction of a pipeline to Azerbaijan, and finally seek
opportunities on-shore. He is even considering encouraging
the Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation (GOGC) to apply for
licenses to explore in Turkmenistan, but views Western
companies' participation as most important.


8. (C) Noghaideli said that Turkmenistan's exclusive
contract with Gazprom fixes prices and amounts only through

2009. He understands the agreement is more like a memorandum
of understanding than a fixed contract as it applies to later
years. He wants to engage Turkmenistan on supplying Georgia
with gas, hopefully at a price in the range of $100 per
thousand cubic meters. In return, Georgia can offer
attractive conditions for Turkmenistan goods and oil to

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transit the South Caucasus. Noghaideli invited
Berdimuhammedov to come to Tbilisi in May and will continue
discussions then.


9. (C) The Georgian delegation did not find Berdimuhammedov
interested in discussing ideas for economic and political
reform. Noghaideli expects that he will inevitably develop
into a dictator of the usual Central Asian ilk, but now,
Noghaideli says, he is a better sort. Therefore, he believes
now is the time to engage Berdimuhammedov before domestic
issues force him to take a harder tack. Although Noghaideli
is not optimistic about democratic change in Turkmenistan, he
said he is not entirely pessimistic either. He said positive
change will require a lot of patience on the part of the USG
and other Western governments, since Central Asian
governments can frequently change direction.

ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA DISAPPOINTMENTS
--------------


10. (C) Noghaideli was disappointed that a planned meeting
with Abkhaz de facto prime minister Ankvab (reftel) was
"canceled by the Russians" -- probably at the urging of de
facto vice president Khajimba. The lesson he draws is that
the Abkhaz can't act without Russian approval, even to
organize a technical meeting with the Georgians on Enguri.
He believes the Abkhaz and Russians were spooked by the
prospect of Georgian media coverage and also by the GOG's
intention to bring State Minister for Conflicts Resolution
Merab Antadze to the meeting.


11. (C) Noghaideli was concerned by Abkhaz military
exercises in the vicinity of the Georgian-controlled Kodori
Gorge, which had never taken place in Spring before. The
Russians, he said, are bewildered by the events in Kodori and
the appearance of an alternative government in South Ossetia
led by Dmitriy Sanakoyev, and they don't know what to do now.
He said that the Georgians and their Western friends need to
be very careful about Abkhazia right now. While he believes
it is unlikely the Abkhaz will attack the Upper Kodori area,
it is a possibility. The Abkhaz and Russians will have to
understand that Georgia will respond to an attack, he said.
He deems the recent murder of two Georgian policemen in South
Ossetia an unacceptable, terrorist act. He asked for a
strong reaction from the US and the EU.

EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS CASE
--------------


12. (C) Noghaideli said that Georgia had consulted several
times with the Russian government on treatment of deportees
from Russia and gotten nowhere before it filed its ECHR case.
After Russia's Ambassador to Georgia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko,
returned to Tbilisi on January 23, the GOG sent messages
through him that it was ready to talk, but the only message
it received back was to "come on your knees". The treatment
of Georgian citizens is a basic issue on which the GOG cannot
compromise, he said. The case was filed because the GOG was
facing a deadline set by court procedures. Tensions and
pressure against Georgians are continuing in Russia, he said.
He thinks that he himself would be unable to live in that
kind of environment.
TEFFT