BAGAPSH ALLIES WIN ABKHAZ DE FACTO PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000623 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV GG SUBJECT: BAGAPSH ALLIES WIN ABKHAZ DE FACTO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS REF: TBILISI 0489 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4(b)&(d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) After a poor showing in the first round (reftel), candidates aligned with de facto Abkhaz president Sergey Bagapsh rallied in the parliamentary run-offs March 18 (likely with the help of "administrative resources") to win an outright majority. According to a UN official, Bagapsh supporters won 20 to 21 of the 35 seats in the de facto parliament, while the hardline opposition won 7 to 9, and independents won the remaining seats. This result appears to strengthen Bagapsh politically. Despite several incidents during the campaign, UN military observers saw no unusual tensions in the ethnically Georgian Gali district during the voting. End Summary. Recovery after a Stumbling Start -------------- ¶2. (C) UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) Senior Political Advisor Atanas Baltov told us March 22 that while the Abkhaz had made a conscious and largely successful effort during the campaign to conceal the division in society that had erupted in the 2004 presidential election, the split came into the open with one event that crystallized the race. Faced with hostile questions from voters during a February 23 television appearance, Bagapsh accused one parliamentary candidate, de facto general Vladimir Arshba, of plotting a coup. This charge, which Baltov said even members of Bagapsh's camp did not support, provided an opening for opposition candidates to make their anti-Bagapsh position public by signing a letter asking for an explanation. Out of the total 35 parliamentary districts, 18 produced winners in the first round March 4. Baltov said that of these 18, 11 were pro-Bagapsh, 5 were opposition, and 2 were independents. With most pro-Bagapsh candidates failing to win majorities in the first round, Baltov said that at that stage the picture did not look good for the de facto government. ¶3. (C) But things changed in the two weeks between the first round and the run-offs March 18. Baltov said "administrative resources" were "apparently used quite a lot," with the result that several second-place finishers in the first round gained enough votes to win in the second. One victim of this was Arshba himself, an opposition candidate who had led in the first round by a large margin, only to lose in the second round to a pro-Bagapsh candidate by 29 votes. Another was an opposition journalist who led in the first round only to lose in the runoff when every single vote in one distant village went to her opponent. The wife of former de facto president Ardzinba, herself a candidate affiliated with the opposition (although she had offered words of support for Bagapsh when he was criticized for saying he was following Ardzinba's policy in not attacking the Georgian-controlled Upper Kodori Gorge) lost by 45 votes to an independent after leading in the first round. After all the dust had settled, Baltov said, Bagapsh allies had won 20 or 21 of the 35 seats in the new parliament, the opposition had won 7 (although they claimed 2 independent winners would join them),and independents had won the rest. ¶4. (C) Baltov said that it was not possible to compare the results directly with the previous parliamentary election, which occurred 5 years ago, before the contentious 2004 presidential election between Bagapsh and current de facto vice-president Raul Khajimba established the current political alliances. Nevertheless, he said the result strengthened the hand of pro-government forces in parliament. He said the opposition faction, though small, consisted of "die-hard" opponents of Bagapsh who would be unlikely to switch sides. He said the main dividing issues in the campaign were economic, including Bagapsh's privatization push. Another was the old issue of rehabilitating the Georgia-Russia railway running through Abkhazia, with the opposition claiming Bagapsh could not be trusted to protect full rights for the Abkhaz if the railway proposal is revived. Khajimba's party newspaper, Forum, had raised during the campaign the possibility of de facto prime minister Ankvab resigning because of a lack of transparency on economic matters, suggesting that he was allowing Georgia to become an economic stakeholder in Abkhazia. Baltov stressed that all candidates, whatever their allegiances, favored Abkhaz independence and enhanced relations with Russia. Gali Tense but No Major Incidents on Election Day -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) The Gali district, the one area of Abkhazia in which TBILISI 00000623 002 OF 003 ethnic Georgians have been allowed to return in significant numbers, was a flashpoint for several incidents during the campaign, including the February 2 disappearance of Gali's de facto district election commission chair David Sigua (still unexplained) and the March 1 detention of three Georgian student protesters (who remain in Abkhaz custody). Georgian media has claimed that voter turnout in Gali was very low, while the Abkhaz dispute this. A number of Embassy sources have told us that flyers urging ethnic Georgians to boycott the vote were circulating throughout Gali during the campaign. Despite these tensions, Baltov said UN military observers did not observe anything unusual on the voting days, and saw no evidence to back up claims heard in Tbilisi that the Abkhaz authorities had closed the bridge or mined the riverside to prevent the population from avoiding the election by traveling to the Georgian government-controlled side. Baltov said the Abkhaz had beefed up their security presence in Gali for the voting, but the UN believed it had remained below the agreed threshold of 600 personnel. Bagapsh-backed candidates won in all three parliamentary districts in Gali. List of Winners -------------- ¶6. (U) (district number, location, name of winner, political affiliation, ethnicity) 1) Sukhumi, Talikh Khvatysh, independent, Abkhaz from Turkey 2) Sukhumi, Sener Gogua, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz from Turkey 3) Sukhumi, Rita Lolua, opposition, Abkhaz (Note: Lolua defeated prominent pro-Bagapsh MP Emma Gamasonia.) 4) Sukhumi, Batal Kobakhia, independent, Abkhaz (Note: Kobakhia heads an NGO, the Center for Humanitarian Programs.) 5) Sukhumi, Lev Shamba, independent, Abkhaz 6) Sukhumi, Irina Agrba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 7) Sukhumi, Pavel Leshchuk, pro-Bagapsh, Russian (Note: Leshchuk defeated general Arshba.) 8) Pitsunda, Roman Benia, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 9) Bzipi. Valery Bganba, opposition, Abkhaz (Note: It is rumored Bganba may be offered a deputy speakership.) 10) Gagra, Amra Agrba, independent, Abkhaz 11) Gagra, Valery Kondakov, pro-Bagapsh, Russian 12) Tsandripshi, Valery Mayromyan, pro-Bagapsh, Armenian 13) Otkhara, Garik Samamba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 14) Duripshi, Guram Gumba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 15) Likhni, Mikhail Sangulia, opposition, Abkhaz 16) Gudauta, Vladimir Nachach-ogly, pro-Bagapsh, Turkish 17) Aatsa, Vyacheslav Tsugba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 18) Novy Afon, Vitaly Smyr, independent, Abkhaz 19) Eshera, Lev Avidzba, independent, Abkhaz (Note: Avidzba defeated Svetlana Dzhergenia, wife of Ardzinba.) 20) Gumista, Albert Ovsepyan, pro-Bagapsh, Armenian 21) Besleti, Valery Kvarchia, opposition, Abkhaz 22) Pshapi, Sergey Matosyan, opposition, Armenian 23) Machara, Viktor Vasilyev, pro-Bagapsh, Russian 24) Dranda, Adgur Kharazia, opposition, Abkhaz 25) Beslakhuba, Yuri Zukhba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 26) Chlou, Zaur Adleyba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz (Note; Adleyba beat independent incumbent Beslan Butba, who is preparing to launch a new independent television station.) 27) Kutoli, Nugzar Ashuba, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 28) Atara, Temur Kvitisinia, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz TBILISI 00000623 003 OF 003 29) Ochamchira, Beslan Dzhopua, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 30) Tkvarcheli, Daur Arshba, opposition, Abkhaz 31) Tkvarcheli, Aleksandr Chengelia, opposition, Abkhaz 32) Okumi, Omari Kvarchia, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 33) Chuburhinje (in Gali district),Yury Kereselidze, pro-Bagapsh, Georgian 34) Gali, Vyacheslav Vardania, pro-Bagapsh, Abkhaz 35) Shashikvari (in Gali district),Bezhan Ubiria, pro-Bagapsh, Georgian TEFFT