PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI SHARES HIS VIEWS ON CASPIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000379 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EB/ESC/IEC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 TAGS: PREL ENRG ECON GG SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI SHARES HIS VIEWS ON CASPIAN REGIONAL POLITICS WITH ASSISTANT SECRETARY SULLIVAN Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 12 meeting with Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs Daniel SIPDIS Sullivan, Georgian President Saakashvili gave the Assistant Secretary a tour d'horizon of Caucasus and Caspian region SIPDIS politics. He spoke positively of Karim Masimov, the new Prime Minister of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and its President Nazarbayev are ready to move closer to the West, he said. He believes Turkmenistan's leaders need to be given more exposure to the West, and there is an opportunity to bring them along in a moment of Russian confusion about the direction that country will take. In Saakashvili's view, Turkey is less resistant to Russian pressure than Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, and he sees a need for intense discussion to keep them a team player in the search for alternative gas supplies to Europe. In comparison, Azerbaijan's President is a hero for standing up to the Russians and refusing to take their gas. Putin, as the autocrat of Russia, in Saakashvili's opinion, was emotional and unpredictably dangerous. Saakashvili spoke with pride about Georgia's economic growth, the economic reforms it has undertaken, and his intent to tackle reform of health care and the judiciary. He concluded by welcoming the possibility of more U.S. investment in Georgia. End Summary. ¶2. (C) A/S Sullivan described his visit to the Caspian, the South Caucasus and Turkey as opening the next phase of Caspian energy development, after completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. He said the USG is looking for ways to continue development of a Southern corridor for energy. He told Saakashvili that his meetings with Kazakh officials in Astana were positive. Saakashvili responded that in general, the Kazakhs are cautious, and will wait until plans for development are sure and real. They often need a push and encouragement. The new Kazakh Prime Minister, Karim Masimov, is a good partner, in his opinion. Saakashvili recommended that the USG support Masimov for his desired post in the OSCE, which is something he cares about and which will encourage him to engage with the United States even more. ¶3. (C) Saakashvili believes there are signals that Turkmenistan will be more open after the death of President Niyazov. Its new leaders need more information from the outside world, to which they have not been exposed. He said that the Russians are not well informed about the situation in Turkmenistan, post-Niyazov. The West, he said, needs to send as many missions as possible to the country, to show what advantages will derive from closer relations. He warned that the next President of Turkmenistan, Berdymukhamedov, has some vague sympathies toward Iran. He is someone who needs "education" and as many visits to the United States as possible. Saakashvili said the need to focus attention on Turkmenistan and its large gas reserves is urgent. ¶4. (C) Saakashvili expressed disappointment with the Turks and their reneging on Prime Minister Erdogan's promise to help Georgia with gas from the Turkish volumes from the Shah Deniz pipeline. One can't believe a Turkish yes or no, he said. He somewhat pityingly mentioned the "open blackmail" the Russians are practicing on the Turkish government. The pressure is coming at a sensitive time for Turkey, which he said is facing a presidential election soon. He added that Turkey has lots of small companies that do business with Russia and can be much more easily manipulated than Georgia or Azerbaijan. ¶5. (C) At the same time, strong words with the GOT are needed, he said, to make them focus on the Nabucco pipeline. The U.S. and EU need to look for ways to make Nabucco make sense. In that regard, Saakashvili said, nothing can be taken for granted. The Hungarian attitude toward Nabucco is uncertain, although the opposition there dislikes the country's dependence on Russian gas. The Romanians are also very worried, he added. Europe needs to present a united front on Nabucco. ¶6. (C) Moreover, it is time, Saakashvili said, to talk to commercial partners about a Black Sea pipeline. Ukraine is interested in such an idea and there is additionally interest in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. In fact, he said, the Kazakhs are better equipped to cope with Russian pressure than the Turks, especially if the benefits in sending energy southward are clear to them. President Nazarbayev is careful not to anger the Russians, but he is inclined to bide his time and will make a move in favor of the West when the time is right. Saakashvili said that Nazarbayev cares deeply TBILISI 00000379 002 OF 003 about his standing with the West and believes his legacy lies in that direction. Masimov's appointment is a signal to the West of Niyazov's inclination. Masimov was appointed for his good relationship with Europe and China, and he has Nazarbayev's ear, Saakashvili said. ¶7. (C) When A/S Sullivan remarked that the Kazakh investment now pouring into Georgia is a very positive development, Saakashvili said that the investment was a political move at first, but now Kazakhstan is seeing that it is getting a good return. According to Saakashvili, Nazarbayev's investment in Georgia is a way of showing his rapprochement with the United States and the West. ¶8. (C) Saakashvili spoke warmly of Azerbaijani President Aliyev. Aliyev's decision to forego Russian gas imports was "close to political heroism", he said; neither Ukraine's Yushchenko nor the Turkmenbashi ever stood up to Russia as Aliyev did. Aliyev's action was inspired by his meeting at the White House, Saakashvili said. He has seen that a Russian embargo "doesn't kill you" and is now inspiring Nazarbayev and the Kazakhs. In the Russian view, Azerbaijan was not an emotional matter like Georgia, but it is strategically significant to them. The Russians, Saakashvili said, thought Georgia would fall and Azerbaijan would naturally follow. ¶9. (C) Saakashvili spoke approvingly of Defense Secretary Gates' speech in Munich, which struck the right tone, in his opinion. A/S Sullivan noted that Putin's talk about an OPEC for gas actually helps the United States position vis-a-vis the Europeans. To Saakashvili, Putin's rhetoric underscores the importance of stability in Georgia to the Southern Corridor. Georgia needs some years to get on its feet, but the Russians are working against that. Russia needs to understand Georgia is on the U.S. and EU radar and is not falling off. Putin talked tough in Munich because he thinks the United States commitment in the Caspian, the Caucasus and elsewhere is slackening, he said. In Russia, Saakashvili said, the West is dealing with one person, not a big, cautious bureaucracy. Putin's actions depend on his mood, he said. His mood took a bad swing in the fall, then improved, then swung back again in Munich. Saakashvili ventured that if Putin feels humiliation in the way the Kosovo issue is handled, he might blow up the Caucasus region without regard for the consequences, believing the way to win is to overturn the table. Putin must be told not to do so, but the Europeans would be "scared to death" in such a situation and are unlikely to say it. Saakashvili suggested that Russia may even stir up trouble in Belarus, if Lukashenko becomes too independent. Russia is willing to use any means to manipulate the West and "don't let's be manipulated," said Saakashvili. Although Russia is not as powerful as the former USSR, it is more arrogant and more willing to take risks, he said. The West must engage Russia and think about containment. ¶10. (C) Turning from regional politics to speak of Georgia, Saakashvili accepted A/S Sullivan's commendation for Georgia's economic reforms. Saakashvili was proud that Georgia's GDP has doubled in the past four years. He noted that it is seeing a huge influx of foreign direct investment, and investors are coming from Kuwait, the UAE, Turkey, Israel, and significantly, from Georgians fleeing Russia. Investors are interested in hospitals which the government intends to privatize. Judicial reform is on the way; tax administration has been made simple, and will be consolidated; and the government is considering establishing free economic zones similar to some that exist in the UAE. Transportation is being revolutionized with new airports, the Kars-Akhalkalakhi railway and new road infrastructure. Kuwait is interested in building a major new hydroelectric dam, and Czech investors have recently bought other hydroelectric and distribution assets. Georgia's economy is moving rapidly forward, he said, and in four to five years could be like Latvia's and Lithuania's. Saakashvili said he is more interested in strong growth than the threat of inflation, which ticked up in January of this year. A/S Sullivan noted that inflation, if unchecked, can be very detrimental to Georgia's economy. Nevertheless, Saakashvili feels he has adequate support from the people, and that tighter money and an appreciated currency may make "nicer figures," but he wants growth in the double digits in order to make up for lost time since independence under the previous government. He noted that even Georgia's tormentor, Russia, with all its oil wealth, is not growing as quickly as Georgia. He hears people talk less about impoverished Georgia than they used to, and he claims that Georgia's GDP TBILISI 00000379 003 OF 003 per capita is now higher than Romania's, when Romania began its EU membership process. With its economic growth, macroeconomic stability, tariff reductions and WTO membership, Georgia will welcome more United States companies to invest here, he said. ¶11. (U) Assistant Secretary Sullivan has cleared this message. TEFFT