GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: TWO COMPETING WORLDS IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 003145 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: GEORGIAN ELECTIONS: TWO COMPETING WORLDS IN HOTLY-CONTESTED ADJARA TBILISI 00003145 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Poloff visited the Black Sea town of Batumi in the autonomous region of Adjara December 11-13 to gauge the pre-election mood of the political parties, election-monitoring organizations and general populace in the lead-up to the January 5 snap presidential election. Opposition party leaders claimed the National Movement (UNM) was using administrative resources to support candidate Mikheil Saakashvili. Organizations monitoring the pre-election period also complained of limited resources and time to fully investigate charges against the government that include handouts offered to voters, intimidation of government employees, and unequal access to media for all candidates. The UNM was dismissive of these charges, saying Adjarans come to the UNM to have their problems solved. Students and Batumi residents expressed frustration at the government's alleged abuse of power during the pre-election period and felt sure Saakashvili would not win the first round outright. However, the National Movement leadership in Adjara was certain Saakashvili would win enough of a majority to avoid a second round. End Summary. Meeting with Opposition Leaders -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Representatives of the New Rightists, United National Council of Opposition (UNC) and Badri Patarkatsishvili's party shared their concerns over National Movement tactics during the pre-election period as well as their campaigns in Adjara. The New Rightists representative laid out a well-defined campaign plan focused on issues unique to Adjara, including reaching out to Muslim voters, placing more Adjarans in civil government (instead of officials from Tbilisi),and addressing concerns of coastal residents. He predicted a second round vote and was pragmatic about the opposition's chances in the election, saying "I wish it would be New Rightists candidate Davit Gamkrelidze against Saakashvili, but it will depend on what Patarkatsishvili does." The New Rightists representative was the only opposition member who said his party would accept the results of the election. At the Republican Party headquarters, the seat of the UNC campaign, poloff received a passionate speech detailing the National Movement's efforts to intimidate government employees. The UNC representative showed poloff a list the government was allegedly using to collect the names of government employees' family members to be used to gather more votes, however, he provided no details on the UNC's campaign strategy in Adjara. Patarkatsishvili's representative said his candidacy was new and did not have the infrastructure to run a campaign throughout Adjara yet. The representative reported Patarkatsishvili may not return to Georgia to campaign if there are no guarantees from the government that he won't be detained. Meeting with National Movement -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The UNM representative said he did not anticipate a second round of voting as the people of Adjara could feel the improvements made by the National Movement government (including the removal of Aslan Abeshidze) "in their skin." He assessed that Saakashvili would win in the first round. He said the influx of tourism and the improvements to infrastructure over the last three years assured the public's continued support for the UNM, citing the new boardwalk and hotels appearing in Batumi. The representative, an MP, did not outline a specific program for the campaign in Adjara, saying most decisions on campaigning and advertising were made centrally in Tbilisi, but he added the UNM was focused on addressing any problems citizens brought to them. He also said the UNM in Adjara does not have a press officer and only uses the media to "debunk" charges made by the opposition. (Note: Unfortunately, the President's representative and the Mayor, both of whom usually outline a long list of plans and accomplishments in Batumi, were not available to meet - leaving a lower level and seemingly uninformed MP to meet Embassy reps. End Note.) Election Monitoring Organizations -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In meetings with the Georgian Young Lawyer's Association (GYLA),Fair Elections Society (ISFED),and NGO Human Rights, each group expressed concern over limited personnel and resources to adequately observe the January 5 elections and pre-election period. Each organization will send observers throughout Adjara, but all three felt coverage in the more remote precincts in the mountainous parts of Adjara would be sparse. GYLA has set aside resources to observe the media during the pre-election period, and each TBILISI 00003145 002 OF 002 organization will continue to compile complaints of unfair campaign practices to report them to the Central Election Commission (CEC). The head of GYLA told poloff he was approached by police who offered their "protection during the election period" as the police feared he "might be a target of violence." Along with concern over inaccurate voter lists, these organizations leveled more serious charges against the government. Complaints Against the Ruling Party -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The ISFED representative claimed that during every meeting of the Precinct Election Commissions (PEC) and District Election Commissions (DEC) in Adjara, the UNM filled the positions of chairman, deputy chairman and secretary, even though the opposition could have served in these roles. Explaining, ISFED said the PEC and DEC meetings were held with such short notice that the opposition was not prepared to nominate candidates for these positions, the UNM used their majority on the commissions to vote for their own candidates, or in some cases, the opposition did not reach the meeting place in time to participate in the selection of chairman. Both the opposition parties and NGOs complained of civil servants working at UNM headquarters, even during working hours - leaving some government offices virtually empty. GYLA members said they observed rice, sugar and other staples being handed out, labeled as "president's gifts," but they were unable to find any government program or office responsible for the handouts. The UNM party was dismissive of these complaints, claiming citizens approached them to solve problems and calling the complaints baseless. Patarkatsishvili's party said that over 1000 signatures they collected to qualify Patarkatsishvili as a candidate with the CEC were destroyed when police took them from party organizers and tore the lists in half. The UNC and ISFED also said the National Movement had transferred computers from the Batumi City Council to their campaign headquarters in Batumi. Despite holding a press conference on this issue, the opposition reported the media instead portrayed the problem as a request by the opposition for office space, entirely ignoring the alleged resource abuse by the UNM. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) As the former stronghold of Russia-backed leader Aslan Abeshidze, Adjara is second only to Tbilisi among the regions in its strength of the opposition. As we saw in local elections, in October 2006, this strength remains. Despite a strong showing at that time, UNM candidates won a majority in the election. We believe this is largely due to the vast improvements to the region's capital, Batumi, which have made it an international resort city in the short time since Abeshidze's departure in 2005. Some of the worst election fraud during Shevardnadze's time occurred in Adjara and we believe these tactics are not fully eradicated. As a result of this and the opposition strength, the Embassy will send four teams to Adjara to monitor the presidential elections, which we still expect Saakashvili to win, although with a smaller percentage than in the other regions of the country. TEFFT