STATE MINISTER BAKRADZE ON DEVELOPMENTS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 003049

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: STATE MINISTER BAKRADZE ON DEVELOPMENTS IN
ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA

Classified By: Ambassador John Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) State Minister for Conflict Resolution David Bakradze
briefed the diplomatic corps December 6 on his taking leave
of absence to become spokesperson for the presidential
campaign of Saakashvili and the United National Movement
party for the January 5 election. Georgian law allows a
minister to participate in a campaign provided he takes leave
from his government position. Deputy State Minister Ruslan
Abashidze is in charge while Bakradze is on leave.


2. (C) Bakradze updated the diplomatic corps on the situation
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He emphasized that Georgia
wants to keep the situation in both separatist areas as calm
as possible during the election period and assured us that
Georgia plans no actions that could increase tensions.
Regarding Abkhazia, Bakradze said he called de facto foreign
minister Shamba last week and communicated through an
intermediary with de facto president Bagapsh to deny Russian
allegations that Georgia plans an attack on December 12 and
to convey the message that Georgia wants no problems.
Bakradze said Bagapsh agreed there should be no trouble
during this period and both agreed to communicate if concerns
arise. Regarding Bagapsh's recent imposition of a state of
emergency and statement that the Abkhaz will acquire more
military hardware, Bakradze said Georgia isn,t very
concerned. He said the Abkhaz armed forces are so poorly
trained and led that a few more heavy weapons wouldn,t make
much difference. He did express concern that this could be
used as cover for Russia to move more military hardware into
Abkhazia. He stressed that the Georgians have no evidence
this is happening, at this point it is only a concern.


3. (C) Bakradze complained about the statement by Member of
Russian Duma Gryzlov that in January the Duma would consider
Abkhaz and South Ossetian declarations of independence. He
said the statement is especially troubling because Gryzlov is
a serious politician and a member of Putin,s circle.
Bakradze said the statement impedes the peace process because
it reduces the incentive of the de facto authorities in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia to negotiate.


4. (C) In response to a comment that Saakashvili,s recent
public statements about resolving the conflicts soon are
inflammatory, Bakradze said Saakashvili,s statements were
mischaracterized. On Abkhazia, Saakashvili said the IDPs
would be returning soon, which has long been a shared goal of
Georgia and the international community and is not
inconsistent with peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Georgia wants to increase emphasis on developing a framework
for IDP return to all parts of Abkhazia, not just the Gali
district; not all at once but in accordance with a plan.
What's important is that the process should start. On South
Ossetia, Saakashvili,s statement that the conflict could be
resolved soon is not a threat but is recognition of the
situation on the ground. Developments within South Ossetia
have created a situation in which the de facto authorities
could disappear at any time; it could take weeks, it could
take months. He used the analogy of a baby's loose tooth:
Georgia has been wiggling it and knows how loose it is, but
will let it fall rather than pull it out.


5. (C) Bakradze reiterated Georgia,s support for the concept
of a comprehensive UN review of the Abkhazia negotiating
framework. He recently told UNOMIG chief Jean Arnault that
the period of election is not a good time to push the idea,
but in January we should return to it. In a meeting Arnault
held on December 5 with the Western Group of Friends missions
in Tbilisi, all agreed it is important to pursue the UN
review as a way to seize initiative and build momentum on
conflict resolution, but this isn,t the right moment to push
in Tbilisi or Moscow. The UN review concept will be on the
agenda for discussion at the UNSYG Group of Friends meeting
in Oslo next week.

TEFFT