DAS BRYZA'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 002814 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/FO AND EEB/ISC/ESC E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG GG SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S NOVEMBER 12 MEETING WITH GEORGIAN PM NOGHAIDELI Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a November 12 meeting with Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli, EUR DAS Matt Bryza urged that the government lift its state of emergency and return independent television station Imedi back to the air. Noghaideli admitted that the government's aggressive pursuit of economic and social reform has created discontent, especially among the rural poor and dismissed government employees. This situation has given strength to the opposition that organized the protest of November 2. He defended the government's decision to confront demonstrators when they turned violent on November 7. Ringleaders of the violence will still be subject to prosecution, he said, but opposition leaders have nothing to fear. Nevertheless, investigations of Labor Party leader Shalva Natelashvili and Goga Khaindrava will continue, and prosecutions may result if the evidence warrants. Now that presidential elections have been called for November 5, Noghaideli said, the government is committed that they be free and fair, and will welcome election monitors both during the campaign and on election day. He recommended Bryza raise with President Saakashvili the proposal to facilitate Imedi TV's return to the airwaves by establishing a European monitor of media broadcasts. Noghaideli said that he expects to complete an agreement with the Azerbaijan government on gas supplies at a meeting in Tbilisi on November 22. He said that about 80 percent of Georgia's gas supplies in 2008 will come from Azerbaijan. End Summary. -------------- REFORM GENERATES SOME DISCONTENT -------------- ¶2. (C) DAS Bryza expressed to Noghaideli the USG's concern about the manner in which dispersal of protesters in Tbilisi was handled on November 7, and reported continued arrests of opposition supporters outside Tbilisi. He said that the opposition leaders with whom he had met speak of feelings of fear that could make a free and fair presidential election on January 5 difficult. He added that he has told the opposition that it must speak and act responsibly, and participate in dialogue with the government. National Movement parliamentarians with whom he had met during his visit had admitted that the tough economic and social decision required by the government's reform agenda have caused discontent, and that such people are vulnerable to exploitation by radicals and foreign influences. Nevertheless, he said, it is important to get Imedi TV back on the air as soon as possible, while at the same time he recognized the need to ensure Imedi will not be used to incite violence or extra-constitutional steps. It will not be possible to achieve confidence in the January elections among Georgia's supporters abroad unless Imedi is on the air, he concluded. ¶3. (C) Noghaideli said that the government accepts that it will never be as popular as it was when Saakashvili was first elected in 2004. Reforms have been painful and government employment has been reduced by 60 percent, leaving many former employees bitter. He said that rural poverty is a difficult problem to solve in a short time. There are many villages that date to collective farm days under the Soviets, where people do not own land and have no work, he said. He rejected "artificial solutions" to the problem. The issue can be only be solved by such persons moving to the cities over time, and he rejected "artificial solutions" such as forcibly relocating them. The government is providing some direct benefits to such people, including health care, he said. The people who have lost government jobs are more wealthy and yet more vocal, he said. Many other people's income is growing. But the employment problem is why the government is developing a free economic zone in Poti, redeveloping Batumi, and now turning its attention to Kutaisi, Noghaideli said. -------------- --- A FIRM RESPONSE TO VIOLENT PROTESTS, RESPECT FOR PEACEFUL DISSENT AND ELECTION CAMPAIGNING -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Noghaideli stressed that no action was taken against the protesters on and after November 2, so long as they were peaceful, no matter how many of them there were. (Noghaideli's estimate was 80,000 people on November 2.) He defended the action to clear the street on November 7. Violence occurred, he said, only when demonstrators returned and began to attack the police and try to enter the parliament. The police had to reestablish order, he said, as would be required anywhere in the world. The government knows it lost ground as a result, however, and is faced with TBILISI 00002814 002 OF 003 a new reality. The President has called presidential elections at the earliest possible date, which is January 5, he said. Noghaideli added that the GOG knows the world is watching and that its actions matter more than its words. ¶5. (C) Noghaideli said the government is committed to free and fair elections in January. However, he believes that opposition claims that their members fear retaliation, especially outside Tbilisi, are overblown. To address that, the government has invited the OSCE to send long-term election monitors to Georgia to monitor the campaign as well as the elections. The world should watch, he said, and it will see that people have the chance to express their views as in any normal democratic country. ¶6. (C) The Russians now know they have failed to replace Saakashvili and can have no real influence in Georgian politics, Noghaideli said. They will still try to influence the course of politics negatively. However, by involving themselves with the Russians, Shalva Natelashvili and Goga Khaindrava have marginalized themselves. An investigation of their behavior will be undertaken, but they will not be arrested unless more evidence of crimes is uncovered, he said. Badri Patarkatsishvili is "playing the Russians' game," Noghaideli said. Badri was using Imedi as his tool, calling for forceful overthrow of the government and rebellion. He said that the Ambassador will soon receive a package of evidence relating to Imedi from the General Prosecutor. Bryza agreed that the calls for overthrow of the government on the part of both Imedi and the opposition were unacceptable. He said the calling of presidential elections in January was a prudent decision. Nevertheless, he was delivering a firm message from Secretary Rice to lift the state of emergency and put Imedi back on the air to ensure the elections are credible. ¶7. (C) Bryza said that the opposition had told him that the police had chased demonstrators down on November 7 and that dissidents have been sought out and jailed since. Noghaideli said that some demonstrators who were bent on breaking windows and smashing property were chased down and could not be left to their own ends. He cited the action of demonstrators earlier this year in Estonia. He said that ringleaders of violence could indeed face prosecution and spending 30 days in jail. He professed himself ready to discuss the lifting of the state of emergency and reopening of Imedi. He said he, the President, and the Minister of Interior will take responsibility for police misbehavior, but that individual police, who were on the street in the heat of confrontation, should receive understanding. The police will conduct an internal assessment after the situation returns to normal, he said. The state of emergency will end "this week" (the week of November 12). Then people will have full rights to demonstrate, he said, but the government does not want a return to the same situation as before. ¶8. (C) In that regard, Bryza urged Noghaideli to talk to Rupert Murdoch about the incendiary content of Imedi broadcasts, since he may not fully understand what Imedi was up to. He said independent European monitors could be appointed to judge whether broadcasts violate professional and/or ethical standards of journalism, if Imedi is allowed to reopen. Such monitors exist in several European countries, he said. Noghaideli deferred to President Saakashvili to make such a decision. ¶9. (C) Bryza asked Noghaideli what the economic impact of the political crisis has been. Noghaideli said it is difficult to calculate. He thinks there could be a slowing of growth for a while, but the economy should get back to normal unless the upcoming election is perceived to be unfair by the United States and the Europeans. ¶10. (C) Bryza said that he supports Georgia in seeking Azerbaijani natural gas as an alternate to Russian supplies. The grand goal, he said, is to get Azeri production up to the point that Georgia's needs can be met and enough is available to fill the Nabucco and Turkey-Greece-Italy pipelines. However, both Azerbaijan and BP are playing a hard game in their negotiations over future gas development. The USG is stressing to the Azeris that they need to help Georgia with gas, and to BP that they need to compromise. He said he hopes to see a deal finished soon. -------------- 80 PERCENT AZERI GAS -------------- ¶11. (C) Noghaideli said that Azeri Energy Minister Rovnaq Aliyev is coming to Tbilisi on November 22 to complete TBILISI 00002814 003 OF 003 negotiations. He expects that Georgia will get about 1.0-1.4 million cm per day at a cost of $140 per thousand cubic meters. In the end, he thinks Georgia will use about 80 percent Azeri gas (from the South Caucasus Pipeline and SOCAR). Only 20 percent or less will come from Russia. Noghaideli was proud that Georgia is now a net exporter of electricity, as he said, and is constructing high-voltage lines to its neighbors. Because Georgia is solving its internal energy problems, it is looking forward to international projects, Noghaideli said. He expects electricity consumption will begin to rise in 2008 as the economy grows. He said the government is beginning to think about what will happen in seven to ten years. ¶12. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared this telegram. TEFFT