AMBASSADOR TEFFT'S MEETING WITH EU CAUCASUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002798 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/RPM AND EUR/FO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV GG SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR TEFFT'S MEETING WITH EU CAUCASUS REPRESENTATIVE PETER SEMNEBY Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, reason 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Ambassador met with Peter Semneby, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, on November 9. Also present were Per Eklund, Head of the EU Commission Delegation in Georgia, Eric Fournier, the Ambassador of France, and members of the EU Commission's and Semneby's staff. Semneby had returned to Tbilisi after a short absence to deal with the state of emergency declared by President Saakashvili. Now that Saakashvili has moved up presidential elections, Semneby said, Georgia's political future is in a "formative period." With a presidential election coming in January, Semneby was concerned about the need to recruit and organize election monitors. ODIHR and other NGO resources for monitoring will be stretched by the elections in Russia. Semneby is meeting with the management of Imedi Television, which was shut down by the GOG on November 7. He and the Ambassador agreed that the EU and the United States will have to insist on the reopening of Imedi and a fair distribution of television time among the candidates for President. This will be especially important since the government now effectively controls or influences all the television stations on the air. Semneby said that it is important to obtain an accounting of detainees held by the government in the wake of the demonstrations. End Summary. RUSSIA'S ROLE VS. FUNDAMENTAL DISCONTENT -------------- ¶2. (C) Semneby asked the Ambassador's opinion of the Russian role in recent events. The Ambassador said that the Government is quite convinced of a Russian-backed or -supported conspiracy, and has some evidence to back up that theory. At the same time, he said, there are fundamental political, economic and social issues that are motivating popular discontent. Semneby observed that the matter is a "chicken and egg" situation, where the Russians are quick to take advantage of that fundamental discontent. For its part, the government is eager to portray the demonstrations and riots as a big plot, with a few innocent opposition leaders mixed in. Fournier said that he expects Russia to keep tensions high with Georgia. IMEDI TV AND FAIR DISTRIBUTION OF TV TIME -------------- ¶3. (C) Semneby was especially concerned about the closure of Imedi Television. He said that during his stay in Tbilisi, he is meeting with Lewis Robertson, the general director of Imedi, and with the station's managing director, Bidzina Baratashvili, to hear their report about the closure of the station. The Ambassador agreed that both the press freedom issues and the investment protection issues involved in the Imedi situation will have to be addressed by the government. The issue is difficult, he said, because before it was shut down, Imedi's reporting was verging on incitement to violence, with no pretense at balance. It will be difficult to prevent a return to the status quo ante if control of the station is returned to Badri Patarkatsishvili, he said. Semneby deplored the destruction of Imedi's studio by the police when they entered and shut it down. The Ambassador said that significant legal action by Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp against the government may come soon, but observed that the station's owners will not find it difficult to set up a temporary studio if the station is allowed to resume broadcasting. The government will also have to be pushed to allow a fair distribution of time on public television stations for the opposition, he added. The Ambassador and Semneby discussed ways to monitor the distribution of television time. Prior to the meeting with Semneby, the Ambassador had met with David Gamkrelidze of the New Rightists party. He told Semneby that Gamkrelidze had pointed out the difficulty any candidate for President, including Gamkrelidze himself, will have in reaching voters if the government controls all the media in Georgia. WINNERS, LOSERS AND DETAINEES -------------- ¶4. (C) Gamkrelidze, the Ambassador continued, is the only opposition leader who did not participate in the demonstrations and resisted the temptation to call for Saakashvili's ouster. Other opposition parties had lost credibility by going along with the more radical group's demand for Saakashvili's resignation or ouster. Nino Burjanadze has come out of the crisis with a great deal of credit for constructively reaching out to the opposition. Semneby agreed wholeheartedly. Burjanadze will apparently be acting president after Saakashvili resigns, which must occur at least by November 21, 45 days before the January 5 TBILISI 00002798 002 OF 002 election date. The more radical opposition leaders, Shalva Natelashvili and Konstantine Gamsakhurdia, have fled the country to Russia, according to the government, he said. Natelashvili and Gamsakhurdia's brother Tsodne have been indicted for treason. Semneby said that Goga Khaindrava is in hiding, and Fournier said he has heard he is thinking of seeking political asylum abroad. One of Semneby's staff expressed concern about reports that opposition activists are in prison in the regions. He said that the United Council of the Opposition has promised to give the EU Commission delegation a list of the names of their supporters who are in prison. ELECTION MONITORS NEEDED FAST -------------- 5 (C) Looking forward to the election in January, Semneby expressed concern about the ability of ODIHR, NGO's and other organizations to mobilize election monitors. With the Russian parliamentary elections close in time to the Georgian presidential election, ODIHR's resources will be stretched. The Ambassador said that it will be important to get monitors in to observe Georgia's elections, which are of considerable importance to the West. He told Semneby the Council of Europe says that voters lists are being cleaned up, and the president has agreed to make changes to the Electoral Commission that will help avoid unfairness. The Ambassador and Semneby agreed that it will be important to impress on the opposition the need to accept the outcome of the presidential elections, even if Saakashvili prevails, as is likely to happen, since he still has fairly large support. Semneby believes the outcome of the referendum on the date of parliamentary elections is more open. Saakashvili will continue to argue for holding the elections in the fall. Semneby said that the earliest the parliamentary elections could be held is March 2008, and if they are held earlier that Saakashvili wishes it will show he is not "the arbiter of everything." TEFFT