USUPASHVILI ADDRESSES NOVEMBER 2 PROTEST,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002659

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG
SUBJECT: USUPASHVILI ADDRESSES NOVEMBER 2 PROTEST,
ELECTIONS WITH AMBASSADOR

REF: A. TBILISI 2559


B. TBILISI 2483

C. TBILISI 2596

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On October 24, Chairman of the opposition
Republican Party David Usupashvili met with Ambassador
regarding the united opposition's planned November 2 protest
against the Saakashvili government (ref A). Usupashvili
voiced two main concerns about the protests: First, that the
government -- or an outside party (i.e. Russia) -- could
provoke violence and spark a crackdown; second, that Irakli
Okruashvili may attend the protest and inflame the crowd.
Usupashvili had met on October 23 with Speaker of Parliament
Nino Burjanadze (ref B) and shared the same two concerns. He
said that he believes the government is taking a wait-and-see
attitude toward the protest, and that their reaction will
depend on the size of the crowd it attracts. He said
Saakashvili is playing "dirty politics" by offering to lower
the threshold only now that he is under pressure (ref C),
rather than earlier in the summer. Usupashvili reiterated
that he believes the best solution to the current situation
for both the opposition and government remains early
elections in spring 2008. End Summary.

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November 2 Protest Plans Continue
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2. (C) On October 24, leader of the opposition Republican
Party, David Usupashvili, met with Ambassador to discuss the
upcoming November 2 protest and the status of the
opposition's United National Council. Usupashvili told
Ambassador that he and the Council are trying to find a
solution to the current political situation. Usupashvili
said that the Council has an internal working agreement that
no party leaders will jeopardize the group's united front.


3. (C) Usupashvili said the opposition continues to meet with
people throughout the regions. (Note: Opposition-sponsored
rallies in Batumi and Kutaisi during the past two weeks each
drew crowds of a few thousand. End note.) He said he does
not know exactly how many will participate on November 2, but
he expects at least three times the number that attended on
September 28, or around 30,000. The upper limit of anyone's
expectations is 100,000. Usupashvili stated that the
opposition Council is not planning to "cross any lines"
during the protest, and that they do not want to lose control
of the crowd. He said that he believes the government does
not know what to expect from the protest either, but that
they are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Usupashvili
believes the government's response will depend on the turnout
at the protest.

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Usupashvili Meets Burjanadze
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4. (C) Usupashvili said his understanding of the government's
position came from a meeting with Parliamentary Speaker Nino
Burjanadze on October 23. Usupashvili said Burjanadze asked
him why the opposition does not work together in Parliament,
in committees, and on legislation. He replied that this is
not the issue that should be discussed now. Burjanadze told
him that the government is now thinking about changing the
election code. He countered that they should have done this
during the summer. Usupashvili said that Saakashvili and
Burjanadze, unlike Minister of Internal Affairs Merabishvili,
care about the country and its future. He said it will be
bad for the government if they are seen to fold under
pressure, but it is their fault that they have driven people
to the street. He stated that he and Salome Zourabichvili
(Georgia's Way party) have tried to focus the Council's
demands on election issues and not on Saakashvili's
resignation.


5. (C) Usupashvili advised Burjanadze of the Council's two
main concerns regarding the November 2 demonstration. First,
he worries that if the pressure on the government mounts,
some ministers (implying Merabishvili) could provoke violence
to allow the government to crackdown and disperse the
protesters. Equally serious could be a staged provocation by
a foreign interest, specifically Russia. Usupashvili's
second concern is that Irakli Okruashvili might attend, which
he fears would cause the people to demand direct action from
him against the government. Finally, Usupashvili told
Burjanadze that although early elections are not the
Council's main demand, he believes that they would be the
best solution for the country. He said that they would stop

TBILISI 00002659 002 OF 002


the pressure now building up against the current government
and allow Saakashvili to continue to lead the country, "just
not with a 90 percent approval rating." If the elections are
not held early, Usupashvili says, the street could force
Saakashvili out and replace him with someone totally new.

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Opposition and Government Share Risk,
Threshold Offer Not Enough
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6. (C) Usupashvili acknowledged to Ambassador that the
opposition, as well as the government, is at high risk due to
the pending protest. He said that with the United Council
representing all parties except New Rightists, the opposition
could all be "completely destroyed" at once, should something
bad happen. Again, he implied such action could be
instigated by Russia. In response to Ambassador's question
regarding Saakashvili's offer to lower the threshold for
participation in Parliament, Usupashvili said "we are not
stupid; we know they were holding this for such a time when
they were under pressure." Usupashvili restated that
whatever happens, he does not want to see another "force
majeure" situation in Georgia. He is asking people to "be
responsible."


7. (C) (Note: Usupashvili and fellow United National Council
opposition leader Konstantine Gamsakhurdia are scheduled to
meet with NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer's staff and
Javier Solana's staff in Brussels this week to discuss the
state of the opposition and upcoming elections. They then
travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with EUR/CARC and Senator
Graham, among others. Usupashvili plans to return to Georgia
the morning of November 2. End note.)

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Comment
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8. (C) The Ambassador advised Usupashvili that he continues
to hear the Georgian people do not want more instability, and
that the harsh rhetoric used by both the opposition and
government does not help the situation. He applauded
Usupashvili reaching out quietly to Burjanadze, and
encouraged further dialogue between the opposition and
government. The Ambassador agreed that Burjanadze and the
government are trying to determine what action to take
regarding the November 2 protest. The government has been
largely quiet about it. The opposition has put Saakashvili's
government in a corner, where he is largely unable to concede
anything more at this point without seriously losing face.
It appears that the opposition has gotten to this point
without now knowing what to do next, especially if things get
out of control.
TEFFT