GEORGIA MISSILE INVESTIGATION UPDATE -- AUGUST 17

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002075 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA MISSILE INVESTIGATION UPDATE -- AUGUST 17 REF: TBILISI 2062 Classified By: Charge Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4(b&d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Additional international experts are arriving in Georgia to provide further, more specific analysis following up on the International Group of Experts (IGE) report released August 15 (reftel). An OSCE delegation led by former Croatian Foreign Minister Zuzul is also expected in Tbilisi August 20. The Georgians want to allow "momentum to continue to build" in the investigation before a UN Security Council hearing or statement on the incident, and would like to see IGE members take part in a meeting at OSCE in Vienna after Zuzul returns. The Georgian Ministries of Defense and Internal Affairs have confirmed to us that even after this incident and the March 11 attack in Kodori, their rules of engagement for intruding aircraft have not changed: the Georgians will not fire first. End Summary. A New Wave of Experts -------------- ¶2. (C) British and Estonian experts arrived in Tbilisi August 17, a Polish expert is expected August 18, and plans are in the works for French and German experts to arrive soon as well. The purpose of this second wave of experts, as agreed by Western ambassadors and charges, is to strengthen the IGE report by providing a higher degree of analysis and addressing specific questions on the evidence. In particular, it is hoped that the new experts can confirm that all Georgian SU-25 aircraft have been inspected, provide their assessment of the validity of the Georgian radar data, and clarify that the missile evidence was properly preserved by the Georgians before they exploded the warhead in accordance with prudent disposal practices. Thus strengthened, the IGE report would be an even more effective rebuttal to theories spread in the Russian media (and likely to be spread further once the recently arrived planeload of Russian investigators announces its conclusions) accusing Georgia of causing the incident. The Embassy issued a Washington-cleared statement August 16 supporting the IGE report, and other Western embassies agree with us on the need to support the IGE process in public statements and in providing experts to help answer remaining questions. We are working with other embassies to arrange for IGE experts to brief the Zuzul delegation on the evidence and their conclusions. Building Momentum -------------- ¶3. (C) Charge spoke with Foreign Minister Bezhuashvili August 17, and the two agreed on the importance of the Georgian government continuing to speak with a clear, unified, and reasonable voice on this issue, and avoiding an accusatory and bickering tone from Georgian officials. They also agreed on the importance of countering disinformation by getting the truth out on the responsible ways the Georgians conducted the warhead disposal and (contrary to Russian claims of a delay) welcomed the Russian delegation that arrived August 16. Regarding the UN, Bezhuashvili said that at this point he favored allowing momentum to continue to build in the investigation before pushing for a Security Council hearing or statement. Regarding OSCE, he said it would be useful if there could be an opportunity for the IGE experts to participate in a meeting in Vienna after the Zuzul delegation returns and issues its report. No Change in Georgian Rules of Engagement -------------- ¶4. (C) Embassy has confirmed with the Georgian Ministries of Defense and Internal Affairs that even after the missile attacks in the Kodori Gorge March 11 and in Tsitelubani August 6, the Georgian "rules of engagement" have not changed. The opposition has criticized the government for failing to prevent these incidents, but the standing Ministry of Defense order for air incursions and the Ministry of Internal Affairs order in the Upper Kodori Gorge continues to be that the Georgians will not fire first but will defend themselves if fired upon. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) We will continue to work with the Georgians and our TBILISI 00002075 002 OF 002 other partners to maintain the momentum built by the initial IGE report, and to try to make sure the real story of this incident gets out. PERRY