DAS BRYZA MEETS WITH PARLIAMENTARY LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 001976 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/CARC, AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG RU SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA MEETS WITH PARLIAMENTARY LEADERS REF: TBILISI 1638 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 27, EUR DAS Matt Bryza met with influential majority Members of Parliament. Saakashvili insider Giga Bokeria complained that the recent UN report on the situation in Abkhazia was unbalanced. Bryza argued that the UNOMIG Joint Fact Finding Group (JFFG) report made a strong case regarding Russian responsibility in the March 11 Upper Kodori bombing. He stressed that Georgia must continue to work constructively with the UN and OSCE regarding the separatist conflicts. Bryza affirmed that a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for NATO before the 2008 meeting in Bucharest is the mutual goal of the USG and GOG. Bokeria, supported by all the others, expressed skepticism about the idea of an American Corner in Abkhazia, fearing it would be seen as USG support for independence aspirations of the de facto authorities. Turning to South Ossetia, Bryza praised the Georgian approach, but cautioned against the GOG embracing Sanakoyev too closely. Bryza advised the GOG to work closely with the OSCE to improve conditions in South Ossetia. On elections, Bokeria and the others said that the government would likely lower the threshold from seven to five percent to enter Parliament, but argued that the majoritarian system is the only way to ensure opposition voices in Parliament and that a professional Central Election Commission (CEC) keeps politics out of the technical running of the elections (reftel). End Summary. -------------- Abkhazia - Pointing Fingers -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 27, DAS Matt Bryza and Charge met with influential United National Movement (UNM) Members of Parliament, Giga Bokeria (Deputy Chair of the Legal Issues Committee),Nick Rurua (Deputy Chair of the Defense and Security Committee),Nino Nakashidze (Deputy Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee),and Irina Kurtadze (Chairman of the Speaker's Cabinet). Saakashvili insider Bokeria dominated the conversation. He stressed that the Government of Georgia (GOG) believes the recent UN interim report on the situation in Abkhazia is prejudiced against Georgia. He claimed there is no mention of ethnic cleansing by the de facto Abkhaz authorities, forced conscription of ethnic Georgians into the Abkhaz army, or of the dire human rights situation in Gali. The MPs complained that instead the GOG was singled out for provoking the situation with a youth camp, something that was in fact positive and needed. Bryza countered that the recent United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) Joint Fact Finding Group (JFFG) report was a victory for Georgia, clearly suggesting that only Russia could have been responsible for the March 11 attack. ¶3. (C) Bryza stressed that Georgia has played a smart hand regarding Abkhazia, and must continue to drive a wedge between the Abkhaz authorities and Russia. He said Georgia must continue to work in the UN and OSCE to improve Georgia's standing in Europe. Citing concerns of the potential for an unintended accident or provocation caused by young Georgians at the new youth camp established by the GOG on the north side of the Enguri River, he said the camp's provocative location undercut Georgia's diplomatic position in NATO and the UN. Rurua and Bokeria complained that they "don't have much time" to counter Russian propaganda against Georgia. Bryza countered that Georgia needed to slow down, perhaps focusing first on resolving the South Ossetia conflict, which was moving in the right direction. Next, Georgia should advance its NATO-MAP aspirations. With South Ossetia out of the way and MAP on the way, Tbilisi would find the Abkhazia conflict more manageable. Bryza reaffirmed the USG's enduring support for Georgia's territorial integrity, and would try to deter Russian recognition of Abkhazia (in the context of Kosovo) by arguing: (1) recognition of Abkhazia would open a Pandora's Box in the North as well as South Caucasus; and (2) neither Abkhazia nor any political entity can garner legitimacy on the foundation of ethnic cleansing. Until the IDP issue is resolved, any Abkhaz claims of independence on the basis of a referendum held while hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians were disenfranchised will remain illegitimate. Finally, Bryza reassured the group that a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for NATO before the 2008 meeting in Bucharest is the mutual goal of the GOG and USG. He told the group that MAP will greatly increase Georgian ability to withstand Russian pressure. In cautioning against further provocation by the GOG, Bryza advised that the Olympics in TBILISI 00001976 002 OF 003 Sochi may also moderate Russian action in the region. -------------- Possible USG Assistance? -------------- ¶4. (C) Charge suggested the idea of establishing two American Corners in Abkhazia, one in Sokhumi and one in Gali, which could improve the standing of the USG in the region and serve as a conduit for information and political reporting. Bokeria said he personally opposed the idea, fearing it would be seen as USG support for the de facto Abkhaz authorities. Rurua and Nakashidze agreed. Charge advised that five American Corners are already operating throughout Georgia, and this could be a natural extension of the program in Georgia's internationally-recognized territory. Bokeria said the GOG is in the process of considering a similar EU proposal. The condition on that proposal would likely be that any information center in Abkhazia follow the opening of other centers in Georgia. Although clearly not a supporter of the idea, he indicated that, if agreed, this could be one way to consider the opening of an American Corner as well. -------------- South Ossetia - Close, But Not Too Close -------------- ¶5. (C) Bryza said he agree with Georgian thinking that the conflict in South Ossetia could be resolved first, enabling Abkhazia to follow. Bryza encouraged the GOG to resolve the water issue in South Ossetia, and to work closely with the OSCE to improve living conditions there. Bokeria said Kokoity is blocking any resolution of the matter. Bryza advised the USG will push the issue at the OSCE. In the meantime, he suggested, the GOG should let Sanakoyev gather ethnic Ossetian support and not embrace him too tightly as a puppet. Only through an organic process of gaining the support of local Ossetians can Sanakoyev develop political legitimacy in South Ossetia as well as Europe. -------------- -------------- Elections and Representation - No Deal For The Opposition -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Bryza said that NATO Allies would look closely at the upcoming 2008 elections in gauging how quickly to proceed with Georgia's NATO aspirations. He asked Bokeria about the opposition's request for electoral reforms (reftel), and mentioned the recent Parliamentary elections in Turkey as a positive development. Now the Turkish Parliament is much more representative of that country's diverse population, with the AK Party's number of seats in parliament more closely reflecting the percentage of the vote it received in the election. Could not such a development also benefit Georgia, and allow for a viable opposition to emerge? ¶7. (C) Bokeria expressed frustration (as Speaker Burjanadze did later - septel) that now that the majority is willing to agree to opposition complaints about the 7 percent threshold, they say that this issue is no longer important and have raised two others instead. On the opposition criticism of the majoritarian system, he said we will "not give away our majority, and a strong party could still compete" under the proposed system. Bokeria claimed that the majoritarian system was in fact put in place to ensure that the opposition would receive representation in Parliament. Without it, he said, the ruling party would take every single seat. PolChief mentioned OSCE concern that the electoral system could be more representative, and asked if it could be, which in turn would build Georgia's diplomatic support in Europe. Bokeria said lowering the threshold would address that concern. Bryza asked why the UNM would not want to adapt electoral procedures to reflect a less managed - albeit European-standard - system, and thereby garner more political support in Europe. He claimed that the most recent polls of at least 70% support for the UNM reflect the composition of Parliament, and that it represents the electorate. (Comment: Opposition MPs gave Bryza a figure of 30% support for the UNM, but approximately 60% support for President Saakashvili. In the October 2006 local elections, UNM received 66.5 percent of the vote in Tbilisi and 77 percent in the regions. End Comment.) ¶8. (U) Bryza thanked the group and congratulated them on the enactment of the bill to ban ex-parte communication in court proceedings, and encouraged the implementation of TBILISI 00001976 003 OF 003 this and other legislation on judicial reform. ¶9. (U) DAS Bryza cleared this cable. PERRY