THE REPUBLICANS' OKRUASHVILI PROBLEM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001946 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DAS MATT BRYZA, EUR/CARC, AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL GG SUBJECT: THE REPUBLICANS' OKRUASHVILI PROBLEM REF: A. TBILISI 1370 ¶B. TBILISI 1638 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During a July 19 meeting with Ambassador, opposition Republican Party Chairman, David Usupashvili, confirmed his party is in talks with Irakli Okruashvili on forming a joint bloc to run in the 2008 elections. Usupashvili, who appears to favor the idea, said the Republican Party's leadership is split over whether to join in a 50-50 partnership with Okruashvili's team in Parliament and support his bid for the Presidency (reftel A). Recent polls by his party and Okruashvili indicate significant overlap of support among likely voters. Although Okruashvili is popular and in a strong financial position, Republican Party leaders are concerned over his controversial past and plans for the future. By joining with Okruashvili they will be risking the existence of the party. Usupashvili said a strong Okruashvili showing in 2008 could "lead to better civic dialogue," and real opportunities for the opposition. He said the opposition must succeed next year in order to preserve and continue the progress in Georgia since 2003. He believes that by teaming up with Okruashvili, they could take as much as 40 percent of the Parliament. His goal is to prevent a constitutional majority (2/3) for the United National Movement (UNM). Unless the majority accepts the opposition's proposal to reform the majoritarian winner-takes-all system (reftel B),Usupashvili believes they do not stand a chance in 2008 without Okruashvili. He said a final decision would not be made before the end of the summer. End summary. -------------- A Risk Worth Taking? -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 19, Ambassador met with Republican Party leaders in a follow-up to a June 16 meeting between David Usupashvili and Poloff. Party Chairman Usupashvili, Member of Parliament Levan Berdzenishvili, and National Committee Member Tinatin Khidasheli, attended. Usupashvili met with former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili around July 1, per Okruashvili's request. They discussed forming a joint bloc between the Republican Party and Okruashvili's team, whereby they would be equal partners in supporting Okruashvili for a Presidential run in next year's election (reftel A). Usupashvili said that his party, and Okruashvili, have conducted polls this year revealing common support between an Okruashvili presidential campaign and Republican Party voters. Both parties have examined other potential partners for the coming 2008 elections. Usupashvili said they considered Badri Patarkatsishvili, but he did not appear to be a viable alternative due to serious disputes between the two earlier this year. He believes now that Patarkatsishvili will not actively oppose the Republicans or Okruashvili. Neither identified any other suitable coalition partners. ¶3. (C) Usupashvili reiterated his party's need for financial support, and Okruashvili has strong financial resources. The former defense minister is popular publicly. However, Usupashvili acknowledged that teaming with Okruashvili is a risky consideration. He told Poloff that Okruashvili now says he was personally against some of his own actions and words regarding South Ossetia, but that they were a result of the President's direction. Okruashvili "says he is clean" from wrongdoing during his cabinet days and that he was the only one "to resist and not follow Saakashvili to the end." He also claimed that he was uninvolved in former Parliamentarian Gelashvili's beating in the street. All of the Republican Party leaders are concerned whether the party's progressive ideology could survive such a partnership. They fear Okruashvili may not be an equal partner and could consume them. They feel betrayed by Saakashvili after partnering with the President in 2003 and are once bitten, twice shy. An additional concern is that Okruashvili will not reach the required age of 35 to run for President until 06 November 2008. Consequently, the possibility was raised that the UNM will hold the election earlier. -------------- The Goal -------------- ¶4. (C) In addition to the survival of his party, Usupashvili is truly concerned about the viability of Parliament without a functioning opposition. Usupashvili's view is that "if we can't get elected, what good are we? We might as well be an NGO." During a July 16 meeting with Poloff, Usupashvili gave TBILISI 00001946 002 OF 002 an update on his party's goals regarding next year's election. He noted the party would like to gain 20 percent of the seats in parliament, or at the very least prevent a constitutional majority (two-thirds) by the National Movement. He stated that he is looking to build the party during the next election, as winning the Presidency may be unrealistic. As the new Parliament will shepherd in the next Presidency, the election is critical for both institutions. His preferred goal is to gain 40-45 percent of Parliament for the opposition. Khidasheli, who has a personal history of mutual animosity with Okruashvili, still recognized that the Republicans need money and a strong candidate. She said a constitutional majority for the UNM would be a "final disaster for us." All three representatives were very concerned about preventing the constitutional majority. Usupashvili said that "people want changes from Saakashvili's team, they don't just want someone to replace him." He emphasized that unless the UNM accepts the opposition's proposal to reform the majoritarian winner-takes-all system (reftel B),Usupashvili said they do not stand a chance in 2008 without Okruashvili. -------------- The Decision - Theirs Alone to Make -------------- ¶5. (C) Usupashvili will meet with Okruashvili again in a few weeks. Usupashvili believes the UNM will be dangerous if they feel threatened. The biggest risk, he noted, is if the opposition is fragmented and 80-85 percent of the vote goes to Saakashvili, which will be bad for Georgia in the long run. He asked Ambassador for his thoughts. Ambassador reiterated that USG could not advise Usupashvili what to do. Ambassador stated that with Parliament shrinking from 230 to 150 seats after the coming election, the UNM will be under some pressure regarding who stays and who may leave the UNM. He also asked Usupashvili if the Republicans would be equal partners with Okruashvili. Ambassador acknowledged the momentous decision they are facing, and the difficulty in ensuring they would be entering a truly equal partnership. Usupashvili said Okruashvili is awaiting an answer. He said a decision would be made likely during September or October, as the campaign begins. Usupashvili said he would be in Washington in November. Ambassador offered embassy assistance in arranging consultations. PERRY