KARIMOV CALLS FOR COOPERATION WITH WEST IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 002108

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UZ US RS
SUBJECT: KARIMOV CALLS FOR COOPERATION WITH WEST IN
CONSTITUTION DAY SPEECH


Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: President Karimov's Constitution Day speech,
in which he calls for stronger ties with the United States
and Europe, may reflect a desire to receive positive election
coverage or diversify his foreign policy or both. He appears
to have cited Russia--without explicitly naming it--as being
opposed to a rapprochement between Uzbekistan and the West.
In Karimov's warped world view, to extend his hand in
friendship, only to have it slapped away with sanctions,
could produce a visceral backlash. End summary.


2. (SBU) During his televised Constitution Day speech on
December 7, attended by the Ambassador and other members of
the diplomatic corps, President Karimov emphasized the
importance of the Constitution. Karimov stressed that the
upcoming presidential election "fully meets democratic norms
and requirements," adding that one candidate nominated by an
initiative group was running for president as well. He also
spoke of the importance of creating equal opportunities for
all candidates, and that Uzbekistan should demonstrate its
political and legal maturity by abiding by the Constitution,
laws, and international standards. (Note: The extensive
press coverage devoted to the four candidates' presidential
"campaigns" never fails to mention that all this activity
"fully lives up to all international norms." End note.)
Karimov echoed his previous rhetoric about the danger of
foreign influence in his speech, urging that Uzbekistan give
special attention to preventing outside interference in the
elections.


3. (SBU) In his speech, Karimov extended what many here see
as an "olive branch" to the U.S. He stated, "... there are
some people who forecast that some kind of misunderstanding
will continue between Uzbekistan and European states, to put
it simply, those who are in favor of retaining such (present)
relations and those who benefit from this... Uzbekistan--in
its foreign policy regarding relations with nearby and far
neighbors, including the USA and Europe--is always in favor
of maintaining relations based on mutually beneficial
cooperation and mutual trust."

The Incident of the Lady in Red
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4. (SBU) Karimov's speech was the occasion for a very unusual
event in Uzbekistan's political life--a heckler. Actually,
the incident involved a very serious young woman,
well-dressed in a bright red suit, who got up toward the end
of the speech and nervously tried to get the President's
attention. Her neighbor tried to drag her down into her
seat, as Karimov glanced up with a startled look. The woman,
in tears, allowed Karimov to finish his speech, but evidently
went backstage afterwards, and was seen returning to her seat
when the musical portion of the Constitution Day events got
underway. One ambassador was called by MFA afterwards and
was assured that the woman had been able to air her
grievances fully with the President. Another source informed
us separately that the woman was the daughter of a former
deputy prosecutor general, Mr. Shukurov, who was reportedly
imprisoned two years ago, and her goal had been to plead with
the President for her father's release. To the GOU, which
seeks to control every single aspect of public life, this
incident was surely a shock and will probably prompt it to
take additional measures to screen audiences in the run-up to
the December 23 election.

Comment:
--------------


5. (C) Although he did not explicitly name Russia, Karimov's
rhetoric about those who aim to prevent strong ties between

Uzbekistan and the West is probably aimed at the Kremlin.
There are at least two possible drivers behind his call for
renewed cooperation with the West. With the presidential
election less than two weeks away, Karimov may be hoping to
receive some favorable--or at least, less negative--election
coverage from Western observers by stating his willingness to
pursue further cooperation with the United States and Europe.
Indeed, the head of Uzbekistan's mission to the OSCE Yusupov
made a point of telling American OSCE Ambassador Finley
recently that Uzbekistan had not praised Russia's recent
parliamentary elections. Yusupov expressed hope that western
delegations would ask ODIHR to include positive observations
of Uzbekistan's election.


6. (C) It is also likely that Karimov is trying to bolster
ties to the West to balance Russia's increased influence.
Karimov has not received the economic investment he desires
from Russia and is impatient to attract capital. Moreover,
his top priority is the continued security of himself and his
family--especially given the large number of enemies his
family has accumulated over the years--and Karimov may not
see cooperation with Russia as a guarantee of his security.


7. (C) Karimov's "olive branch" casts new light on the
proposed sanctions legislation in the U.S. Congress. In
Karimov's warped world view, to extend his hand in
friendship, only to have it slapped away with sanctions,
could produce a visceral backlash that could shut down the
current reopening of relations with the U.S. and seriously
impede potential progress in human rights and regional
security (including Afghanistan).
NORLAND