KARIMOV CALLS FOR COOPERATION WITH WEST IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 002108 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UZ US RS SUBJECT: KARIMOV CALLS FOR COOPERATION WITH WEST IN CONSTITUTION DAY SPEECH Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Karimov's Constitution Day speech, in which he calls for stronger ties with the United States and Europe, may reflect a desire to receive positive election coverage or diversify his foreign policy or both. He appears to have cited Russia--without explicitly naming it--as being opposed to a rapprochement between Uzbekistan and the West. In Karimov's warped world view, to extend his hand in friendship, only to have it slapped away with sanctions, could produce a visceral backlash. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) During his televised Constitution Day speech on December 7, attended by the Ambassador and other members of the diplomatic corps, President Karimov emphasized the importance of the Constitution. Karimov stressed that the upcoming presidential election "fully meets democratic norms and requirements," adding that one candidate nominated by an initiative group was running for president as well. He also spoke of the importance of creating equal opportunities for all candidates, and that Uzbekistan should demonstrate its political and legal maturity by abiding by the Constitution, laws, and international standards. (Note: The extensive press coverage devoted to the four candidates' presidential "campaigns" never fails to mention that all this activity "fully lives up to all international norms." End note.) Karimov echoed his previous rhetoric about the danger of foreign influence in his speech, urging that Uzbekistan give special attention to preventing outside interference in the elections. ¶3. (SBU) In his speech, Karimov extended what many here see as an "olive branch" to the U.S. He stated, "... there are some people who forecast that some kind of misunderstanding will continue between Uzbekistan and European states, to put it simply, those who are in favor of retaining such (present) relations and those who benefit from this... Uzbekistan--in its foreign policy regarding relations with nearby and far neighbors, including the USA and Europe--is always in favor of maintaining relations based on mutually beneficial cooperation and mutual trust." The Incident of the Lady in Red -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Karimov's speech was the occasion for a very unusual event in Uzbekistan's political life--a heckler. Actually, the incident involved a very serious young woman, well-dressed in a bright red suit, who got up toward the end of the speech and nervously tried to get the President's attention. Her neighbor tried to drag her down into her seat, as Karimov glanced up with a startled look. The woman, in tears, allowed Karimov to finish his speech, but evidently went backstage afterwards, and was seen returning to her seat when the musical portion of the Constitution Day events got underway. One ambassador was called by MFA afterwards and was assured that the woman had been able to air her grievances fully with the President. Another source informed us separately that the woman was the daughter of a former deputy prosecutor general, Mr. Shukurov, who was reportedly imprisoned two years ago, and her goal had been to plead with the President for her father's release. To the GOU, which seeks to control every single aspect of public life, this incident was surely a shock and will probably prompt it to take additional measures to screen audiences in the run-up to the December 23 election. Comment: -------------- ¶5. (C) Although he did not explicitly name Russia, Karimov's rhetoric about those who aim to prevent strong ties between Uzbekistan and the West is probably aimed at the Kremlin. There are at least two possible drivers behind his call for renewed cooperation with the West. With the presidential election less than two weeks away, Karimov may be hoping to receive some favorable--or at least, less negative--election coverage from Western observers by stating his willingness to pursue further cooperation with the United States and Europe. Indeed, the head of Uzbekistan's mission to the OSCE Yusupov made a point of telling American OSCE Ambassador Finley recently that Uzbekistan had not praised Russia's recent parliamentary elections. Yusupov expressed hope that western delegations would ask ODIHR to include positive observations of Uzbekistan's election. ¶6. (C) It is also likely that Karimov is trying to bolster ties to the West to balance Russia's increased influence. Karimov has not received the economic investment he desires from Russia and is impatient to attract capital. Moreover, his top priority is the continued security of himself and his family--especially given the large number of enemies his family has accumulated over the years--and Karimov may not see cooperation with Russia as a guarantee of his security. ¶7. (C) Karimov's "olive branch" casts new light on the proposed sanctions legislation in the U.S. Congress. In Karimov's warped world view, to extend his hand in friendship, only to have it slapped away with sanctions, could produce a visceral backlash that could shut down the current reopening of relations with the U.S. and seriously impede potential progress in human rights and regional security (including Afghanistan). NORLAND