WARNING - DO NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT!

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000199 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017 TAGS: PHUM PGOV UZ SUBJECT: WARNING - DO NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT! REF: TASHKENT 135 TASHKENT 00000199 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMB. JON R. PURNELL, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Self-declared presidential candidate Jahongir Shosalimov sued in Uzbekistan's Supreme Court alleging that President Karimov is violating the constitution by staying in office beyond his mandated term. The Tashkent police responded by detaining his wife for a seven-hour "discussion" in which officers reportedly urged her to keep her husband out of politics, or else. Mrs. Shosalimova, together with her neighborhood committee chairwoman, disrupted a press conference of the Human Rights Alliance of Uzbekistan, the loosely-knit group supporting Shosalimov's presidential bid, saying the Alliance activists were spreading lies on the Internet. Shosalimov said he was undeterred, and that the official response to his political activities shows he has hit the authorities where it hurts. End summary. A CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT: KARIMOV OR... SHOSALIMOV? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In late 2006, the not-ready-for-prime-time activists of the Human Rights Alliance of Uzbekistan announced to Poloff that they had selected a candidate to compete in the 2007 presidential election. Their nominee, Jahongir Shosalimov, was a "man of the people," they said: a kindly, five-foot-tall fabrics merchant working in Tashkent's Chorsu Bazaar. Shosalimov's initial campaign promises were typical vows to put an end to corruption and ensure a peaceful life for his people. ¶3. (C) Shosalimov's campaign, otherwise unnoticed, took on new life in January when President Karimov's second -- and constitutionally mandated final -- term in office passed its seventh year. As a 2002 national referendum had established seven-year presidential terms, the Human Rights Alliance and other observers contended that Karimov's constitutional authority had ended (reftel). (Note: The Alliance includes well-known activist Elena Urlayeva and receives material support from opposition Free Farmers Party leader Nigora Khidoyatova. End note.) In January, according to Alliance press releases, Shosalimov attempted to file suit in the Supreme Court to contest Karimov's right to remain in office until the next election, scheduled for December. The Court rejected the suit, saying that it could not consider actions filed by private citizens. THE POLICE RESPOND -------------- ¶4. (C) On January 31, according to Shosalimov, the chief of Tashkent's Uch-Tepe District Police anti-terrorism unit appeared at his home after he had left for work and escorted his wife, Gulchekhra, to the local police station. Shosalimov said that officers held his wife for approximately seven hours, and then returned her to their home. He said his wife was unharmed, but that officers had threatened her and instructed her to see that Shosalimov ceased his involvement in politics. The activists of the Human Rights Alliance distributed notices to their contacts, including several Tashkent diplomatic missions, announcing that police had "abducted" Mrs. Shosalimova specifically to disrupt a press conference that the Alliance had scheduled for Shosalimov the following day. However, the Alliance reported, the event would go on as scheduled. AN ABORTED PRESS CONFERENCE -------------- ¶5. (C) On the morning of February 1, Human Rights Alliance activists gathered at Free Farmers Party headquarters, a one-room office in a small residential building, to explain to the public what their organization was doing to counter President Karimov's alleged abuse of presidential term limits. While several journalists and diplomats were invited, only Poloff, Voice of America stringer Abdumalik Boboyev, and a Polish diplomat attended. Fifteen minutes after the start of the meeting, three middle-aged women appeared at the door demanding to speak to activist Elena Urlayeva, whom they loudly accused of distributing "lies" on the Internet. Urlayeva recoiled in fear and barricaded herself in a back room, saying she believed the women had come to beat her. (Note: Urlayeva was jittery after having TASHKENT 00000199 002 OF 002 been reportedly roughed up by four burly women on the street in a targeted attack in mid-January. End note.) Activist Akhtam Shaymardanov blocked the office door, pushing the uninvited guests out into the vestibule. An extended shouting match ensued. The Polish diplomat hurriedly departed, leaving Poloff and the Voice of America stringer closed in the office with Urlayeva and other activists. ¶6. (C) After approximately 15 minutes of continuous shouting, Poloff exited into the vestibule and asked the women to explain their complaint. The leader of the group identified herself as the chairwoman of Shosalimov's local mahalla (neighborhood) committee, and she introduced one of her companions as Shosalimov's wife. The committee chairwoman complained that Urlayeva and other activists had distributed false information on the Internet alleging that police had arrested Mrs. Shosalimova. She explained that she and Mrs. Shosalimova had in fact gone out to a nearby bank together the previous day. Activist Shaymardanov shouted back, "The police put them up to this! The police have organized all of this." The mahalla committee chairwoman responded, "You party people are all are a bunch of liars! Don't destroy our people! Leave us in peace!" Mrs. Shosalimova, in a shrill voice, accused the activists of leading her husband "off the right path" and threatened to sue them in court if Shosalimov ever returned to the Free Farmers Party office. "WE'VE HIT THEM WHERE IT HURTS" -------------- ¶7. (C) Having encouraged the quarreling parties to discuss their disagreements peacefully, Poloff left the party headquarters and found Shosalimov, working at his fabric shop at Chorsu Bazaar. Shosalimov confirmed that his wife had returned from the police station the previous day and had warned him that she would go to the Free Farmers Party office to instigate a scandal. Smiling, he said, "They've gone after my wife to try to scare me, but I'm not scared. My spirits are uplifted, because I know we've hit them where it hurts." COMMENT: THE MOST DANGEROUS GAME -------------- ¶8. (C) No serious observer expects any opponent to mount a credible challenge to President Karimov in this year's election. Mr. Shosalimov is a notably insignificant player, with no political experience or popular following. It is difficult to see what he expects to achieve through his quixotic campaign, or even whether he has undertaken it on his own initiative. The police have responded with a warning shot, suggesting what might happen to Shosalimov and his family if he continues his impossible quest for the presidency. So far, this longest of long-shot candidates is apparently undeterred. PURNELL