WARNING - DO NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT!

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 000199

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV UZ
SUBJECT: WARNING - DO NOT RUN FOR PRESIDENT!

REF: TASHKENT 135

TASHKENT 00000199 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMB. JON R. PURNELL, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Self-declared presidential candidate Jahongir
Shosalimov sued in Uzbekistan's Supreme Court alleging that
President Karimov is violating the constitution by staying in
office beyond his mandated term. The Tashkent police
responded by detaining his wife for a seven-hour "discussion"
in which officers reportedly urged her to keep her husband
out of politics, or else. Mrs. Shosalimova, together with
her neighborhood committee chairwoman, disrupted a press
conference of the Human Rights Alliance of Uzbekistan, the
loosely-knit group supporting Shosalimov's presidential bid,
saying the Alliance activists were spreading lies on the
Internet. Shosalimov said he was undeterred, and that the
official response to his political activities shows he has
hit the authorities where it hurts. End summary.

A CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT: KARIMOV OR... SHOSALIMOV?
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2. (C) In late 2006, the not-ready-for-prime-time activists
of the Human Rights Alliance of Uzbekistan announced to
Poloff that they had selected a candidate to compete in the
2007 presidential election. Their nominee, Jahongir
Shosalimov, was a "man of the people," they said: a kindly,
five-foot-tall fabrics merchant working in Tashkent's Chorsu
Bazaar. Shosalimov's initial campaign promises were typical
vows to put an end to corruption and ensure a peaceful life
for his people.


3. (C) Shosalimov's campaign, otherwise unnoticed, took on
new life in January when President Karimov's second -- and
constitutionally mandated final -- term in office passed its
seventh year. As a 2002 national referendum had established
seven-year presidential terms, the Human Rights Alliance and
other observers contended that Karimov's constitutional
authority had ended (reftel). (Note: The Alliance includes
well-known activist Elena Urlayeva and receives material
support from opposition Free Farmers Party leader Nigora
Khidoyatova. End note.) In January, according to Alliance
press releases, Shosalimov attempted to file suit in the
Supreme Court to contest Karimov's right to remain in office
until the next election, scheduled for December. The Court
rejected the suit, saying that it could not consider actions
filed by private citizens.

THE POLICE RESPOND
--------------


4. (C) On January 31, according to Shosalimov, the chief of
Tashkent's Uch-Tepe District Police anti-terrorism unit
appeared at his home after he had left for work and escorted
his wife, Gulchekhra, to the local police station.
Shosalimov said that officers held his wife for approximately
seven hours, and then returned her to their home. He said
his wife was unharmed, but that officers had threatened her
and instructed her to see that Shosalimov ceased his
involvement in politics. The activists of the Human Rights
Alliance distributed notices to their contacts, including
several Tashkent diplomatic missions, announcing that police
had "abducted" Mrs. Shosalimova specifically to disrupt a
press conference that the Alliance had scheduled for
Shosalimov the following day. However, the Alliance
reported, the event would go on as scheduled.

AN ABORTED PRESS CONFERENCE
--------------


5. (C) On the morning of February 1, Human Rights Alliance
activists gathered at Free Farmers Party headquarters, a
one-room office in a small residential building, to explain
to the public what their organization was doing to counter
President Karimov's alleged abuse of presidential term
limits. While several journalists and diplomats were
invited, only Poloff, Voice of America stringer Abdumalik
Boboyev, and a Polish diplomat attended. Fifteen minutes
after the start of the meeting, three middle-aged women
appeared at the door demanding to speak to activist Elena
Urlayeva, whom they loudly accused of distributing "lies" on
the Internet. Urlayeva recoiled in fear and barricaded
herself in a back room, saying she believed the women had
come to beat her. (Note: Urlayeva was jittery after having

TASHKENT 00000199 002 OF 002


been reportedly roughed up by four burly women on the street
in a targeted attack in mid-January. End note.) Activist
Akhtam Shaymardanov blocked the office door, pushing the
uninvited guests out into the vestibule. An extended
shouting match ensued. The Polish diplomat hurriedly
departed, leaving Poloff and the Voice of America stringer
closed in the office with Urlayeva and other activists.


6. (C) After approximately 15 minutes of continuous shouting,
Poloff exited into the vestibule and asked the women to
explain their complaint. The leader of the group identified
herself as the chairwoman of Shosalimov's local mahalla
(neighborhood) committee, and she introduced one of her
companions as Shosalimov's wife. The committee chairwoman
complained that Urlayeva and other activists had distributed
false information on the Internet alleging that police had
arrested Mrs. Shosalimova. She explained that she and Mrs.
Shosalimova had in fact gone out to a nearby bank together
the previous day. Activist Shaymardanov shouted back, "The
police put them up to this! The police have organized all of
this." The mahalla committee chairwoman responded, "You
party people are all are a bunch of liars! Don't destroy our
people! Leave us in peace!" Mrs. Shosalimova, in a shrill
voice, accused the activists of leading her husband "off the
right path" and threatened to sue them in court if Shosalimov
ever returned to the Free Farmers Party office.

"WE'VE HIT THEM WHERE IT HURTS"
--------------


7. (C) Having encouraged the quarreling parties to discuss
their disagreements peacefully, Poloff left the party
headquarters and found Shosalimov, working at his fabric shop
at Chorsu Bazaar. Shosalimov confirmed that his wife had
returned from the police station the previous day and had
warned him that she would go to the Free Farmers Party office
to instigate a scandal. Smiling, he said, "They've gone
after my wife to try to scare me, but I'm not scared. My
spirits are uplifted, because I know we've hit them where it
hurts."

COMMENT: THE MOST DANGEROUS GAME
--------------


8. (C) No serious observer expects any opponent to mount a
credible challenge to President Karimov in this year's
election. Mr. Shosalimov is a notably insignificant player,
with no political experience or popular following. It is
difficult to see what he expects to achieve through his
quixotic campaign, or even whether he has undertaken it on
his own initiative. The police have responded with a warning
shot, suggesting what might happen to Shosalimov and his
family if he continues his impossible quest for the
presidency. So far, this longest of long-shot candidates is
apparently undeterred.

PURNELL