UZBEK OFFICIAL CALLS THE ELECTION, HOPES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001927 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/ACE RICK STODDARD, SCA/CEN BRIAN RORAFF; ASTANA FOR ALMATY/USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PTER EAID UZ SUBJECT: UZBEK OFFICIAL CALLS THE ELECTION, HOPES FOR CLOSER TIES Classified By: Poloff Tim Buckley for reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. On November 2, poloff spoke at length with Furqat Sidikov, an Uzbek Diplomat who recently completed a five-year tour as Press Attache at the Uzbek Embassy in Washington, DC, and now works at the state-run International Center for Strategic Studies and Inter-regional Cooperation in Tashkent. The conversation took place during a function sponsored by the Open Dialogue Initiative (ODI),which receives USG funding support. Sidikov stated "we all know who will be President" after December elections but he noted the GOU is anxious about how the West will react. He also suggested it would be easier for NGOs to operate after elections and said "we need NGO assistance". He said the GOU welcomes reengagement and noted it is good for regional balance, which he indicated may have swung too far to the Russians. He also discussed the threat of Islamic extremism, and said the USG should pay more attention to numerous smaller splinter groups that may pose as much of a threat as larger groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HT) or the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Despite Sidikov's claim that he can speak "independently" from his new post outside the MFA, he is likely dropping carefully calibrated hints from the GOU. He offered to meet with post any time -- without a diplomatic note -- since he does not need permission to speak. At the same meeting the German First Secretary said there have been positive signs from the GOU since EU sanctions were lifted and encouraged the USG to follow a similar strategy. End summary. Respect for NGOs -------------- ¶2. (C) ODI Director Mjusa Sever invited Uzbek officials, diplomats, and journalists to a reception on November 2. Sidikov readily engaged poloff in a discussion about bilateral relations and praised Sever and ODI for including GOU officials in events and keeping them well-informed about the organization's activities. He suggested that this reassured the GOU during a time of "revolution syndrome", when other NGOs worked around the GOU and drew suspicion. Sever said the same thing at an October 2 meeting with poloff and visiting desk officer, and the local NDI Director also previously attributed open communications with the GOU for that organization's longevity in Uzbekistan. When asked why ODI still has to go through a difficult annual registration process, Sidikov said "wait until after the elections...things will be different." He predicted that ODI will have no difficulty in receiving their next extension in the country. He also added that "it was a mistake to get rid of some of the programs that were here" and "NGOs can teach us a lot here...we need them." No Surprises on Election Day -------------- ¶3. (C) On the subject of the upcoming elections, Sidikov stated "we all know who will be the President of Uzbekistan." However, he stressed that the GOU is very concerned about what the reaction will be from the West. He predicted that once things settle down after elections the bilateral relationship can grow, providing the US does not make too much of a fuss over the elections. Sidikov also volunteered the GOU is pleased that the new American Ambassador is "more of an orientalist" who understands the Uzbek perspective. He also implied that the US undermined some pro-civil society officials in the GOU who lost influence or key positions when the relationship soured, ostensibly due to US decisions. Has the Pendulum Swung Too Far? -------------- ¶4. (C) Sidikov mentioned a few different times in the conversation that the GOU welcomes reengagement with the US and that it is "good for balance." Regarding Russian influence, he said "just look at Gazprom," and described how pushy Russian policies seek to impose unfavorable deals on countries like Uzbekistan. He added that "too much Russia TASHKENT 00001927 002 OF 002 isn't good for Uzbekistan", and he also cited China's growing stature in the region. Here again Sidikov subtly mentioned that they appreciate that Ambassador Norland "knows Asia." Religious Extremism in Central Asia -------------- ¶5. (C) Sidikov also raised the issue of religious extremism in Central Asia, and said "you in the west are so focused on HT and IMU, but there are more...we are very concerned about the others." He specifically mentioned Hizb-ut-Nazra, which he said was an offshoot of HT and more dangerous because its members are "too impatient and violent" to pursue political change. He could not estimate how many members belong to any such groups and added "it is too hard to sort out secular, moderate Muslims from extremists." He also worried that his fellow Uzbeks often have flawed knowledge about Islam, which makes them susceptible to radicalization. However, he added "the root causes of extremism need to be addressed", and he cited economic opportunity and, surprisingly, a robust civil society as important goals. Here again he said that NGOs can make a contribution in Uzbekistan. He also expressed his admiration for American society based on his five-year posting at the Uzbek Embassy in Washington. He said "I have seen for myself the freedom of even common people in the US, and I hope that my country can achieve this someday as well." Germans See the Door Opening -------------- ¶6. (C) Poloff also spoke with the First Secretary of the German Embassy, who reported that they have already observed signs of progress in their relationship since the EU's recent decision to lift sanctions. He added that nothing changed as a result of sanctions against Uzbekistan, and "we want to see the Americans come on board" with this strategy. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Sidikov offered to speak with emboffs at any time, particularly on the extremism issue, which he says is his specialty. He emphasized that the usual cumbersome process of requesting meetings via diplomatic note is not necessary since he is with the "independent" Center for Strategic Studies and Inter-regional Cooperation. However, he later said this organization is "under the President but not part of the Apparat." He was likely passing on approved messages rather than speaking candidly. Nonetheless, the ODI event gave emboffs a chance to have an unstructured conversation with some Uzbek officials during a sensitive time of the Presidential campaign when it is difficult to obtain information. NORLAND