REGISTERED PARTIES NOMINATING PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TASHKENT 001732

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/4/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM RS UZ
SUBJECT: REGISTERED PARTIES NOMINATING PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES, INCLUDING PRESIDENT KARIMOV

REF: A. TASHKENT 1677

B. TASHKENT 0340

Classified By: POLOFF STEVEN PROHASKA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan
nominated President Karimov as its candidate for the December
presidential election at an October 4 plenary session. The
four other political parties represented in parliament, all
compliant and largely pro-government, have also begun
nominating candidates. Karimov has not formally accepted the
nomination, and is arguably barred from running for another
term. Local news has provided some limited coverage of
President Putin's decision to avoid seeking an
unconstitutional third term. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The five political parties that the Central Election
Commission (CEC) has registered have begun to put forward
candidates for the presidential election slated to occur on
December 23. The five parties--all support the
government--include the Adolat (Justice) Social Democratic
Party, the Milliy Tiklanish (National Rebirth) Party,
Fidokorlar (Selfless) National Democratic Party, the Liberal
Democratic Party of Uzbekistan, and the People's Democratic
Party of Uzbekistan (PDPU). On September 28, Adolat
nominated Dilorom Tashmukhamedova, First Secretary of Adolat
and head of the party's faction in the legislature. The
People's Democratic Party of Uzbekistan has nominated
Asliddin Rustamov, head of the party's faction in the
Legislative Assembly. Official press reporting citing an
official from the Democratic National Rebirth Party has
indicated that the party will soon formally nominate Hurshid
Dostmukhamedov, Chairman of the party's faction and Deputy
Speaker of the parliament's Legislative Assembly.
Fidokorlar has nominated Ahtam Tursunov, also head of the
party's faction in the legislature. The Liberal Democratic
Party of Uzbekistan (LDPU) nominated Karimov at a plenary
session on October 4, according to Embassy contacts. Despite
the LDPU's nomination, President Karimov remains tight-lipped
about his candidacy, and the GOU has not issued a public
statement on whether he will seek reelection.


3. (C) According to an Embassy contact, the GOU had initially
invited Latif Gulyamov, leader of the PDPU, to the
presidential apparat several months ago and instructed him to
run for President. Gulyamov was greatly upset by the news.
(Comment: Apparently, being named a presidential candidate
increases the risk that one will lose his or her
position--and the privileges associated with it--in the party
after the election. End Comment.) The GOU later decided
that it would be best to have a variety of presidential
candidates, and summoned Tashmukhamedova, Dostmukhamedov,
Tursunov, and Rustamov--all leaders of party factions in the
Legislative Chamber--to the presidential apparat several
weeks ago. Uzbek officials instructed all of them to run for
the presidency of Uzbekistan. Like Gulyamov, the other
candidates were disappointed by the news.


4. (C) Local media has provided some limited coverage of
President Putin's decision to run in Russia's parliamentary
election. On October 2, the Tashkent newspaper "Tashkent
Evening" (Russian-language circulation 2,268, Uzbek-language
circulation 2,049) printed a short blurb on Putin leading the
party list of "United Russia" in the upcoming parliamentary
election, and his decision to avoid making a constitutional
change that would allow him a third term. We are not aware,
however, of any Uzbek-language TV or radio reporting on
Putin's decision, and this is where most Uzbeks would get
their news outside of Tashkent.


5. (C) Comment: Besides Karimov, the announced candidates
from the officially registered (i.e. pro-government) parties
could probably be easily controlled by authorities if the GOU
has put them forward to create the illusion of a competitive
election. We would not be surprised if the nominees
ultimately endorse a Karimov bid for the presidency--or any
other candidate that Karimov decides to support. The GOU
also appears to want multiple presidential candidates in an

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attempt to insulate itself from anticipated Western criticism
surrounding the December election. The increased number of
candidates suggests that the GOU has been reevaluating its
election strategy in recent months, and Gulyamov's apparent
replacement by Rustamov may also reflect Gulyamov's attempt
to avoid becoming a candidate (and thus hang on to his
position) by leveraging his connections in the National
Security Service and the Presidential apparat.


6. (SBU) Comment cont'd: Karimov was elected President of
Uzbekistan in 1991, and in 1995 a referendum extended his
term to 2000. He was reelected in 2000, and a 2002
referendum changed the presidential term from five years to
seven years. Although the constitution prohibits the same
person from being elected to more than two consecutive terms,
a constitutional amendment at this point allowing Karimov a
third presidential term is not practical. According to
Article 128, the parliament may adopt a law concerning
amendments to the constitution within six months after
submitting a proposal for widespread discussion. It is
theoretically possible to submit a constitutional amendment
proposal tomorrow, discuss it, and pass it in the parliament,
but only ten weeks remain before the December 23 election.
The GOU might argue that because the 2002 referendum changed
the length of the presidential term, the clock was reset, and
Karimov could run again for a term lasting from 2007-2014.
Or the regime may simply ignore legal complications of the
constitution.


7. (C) Comment cont'd: On the other hand, there is an outside
chance that Karimov will decide to step aside as President.
Karimov stressed to the Ambassador that the constitution
would be observed, and that he was primarily interested in
leaving a system in place (ref A). It is interesting that
the PDPU nominated Asliddin Rustamov, who has openly
criticized election law in the past (ref B)--something very
unusual for a member of an official party. Moreover, the
heavily censored local media has specifically noted Putin's
decision to avoid making a constitutional change that would
allow him to remain as President of Russia, though Tashkent
Evening is a pro-government newspaper with a small
readership. Still, the conventional wisdom is that Karimov
will run and the only question is what winning percentage he
will amass against his (unwilling) electoral opponents.
NORLAND