PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FACE OBSTACLES AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TASHKENT 001606 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017 TAGS: PHUM PGOV UZ SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FACE OBSTACLES AND HARASSMENT REF: TASHKENT 199 Classified By: CDA BRAD HANSON; REASONS 1.4 (B, D). ¶1. (C) Summary: While President Karimov has not yet made any official announcement on elections, which are widely expected to be planned for December 23, several human rights activists already have announced their candidacies. These self-declared candidates have little chance of being registered as official candidates, but rather seek to use their candidacies to highlight Uzbekistan's lack of political reform. All of the self-declared candidates have experienced some type of harassment. Meanwhile, rumors continue to circulate about possible "strawman" candidates who may be tapped by the Government to run against President Karimov to make the expected election look more democratic. If an election is held, there is no doubt that Karimov will be reelected, and the self-declared candidates are likely to go unnoticed by the majority of Uzbekistan's population. End summary. HUMAN RIGHTS ALLIANCE PUTS FORWARD THREE CANDIDATES -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Three members of the Human Rights Alliance, a loose confederation of human rights defenders in Tashkent, have announced their candidacies for president: Jahongir Shosalimov, Abdillo Tojibuy-ugli and Akhtam Shaymardanov. As Tojibuy-ugli explained to poloff in July, the Alliance decided to put forward three people instead of a single candidate so that one person alone would not have to bear the full brunt of the Government's anticipated reaction. Tojibuy-ugli further explained that neither he nor Shaymardanov expect to be registered as official candidates, but are declaring their candidacies to expose the lack of political reform in Uzbekistan. Shaymardanov added that their candidacies also may serve as a springboard for a new Alliance project on promoting free and fair elections in Uzbekistan. ¶3. (C) On the other hand, Shosalimov seems to take his long-shot candidacy more seriously, and issued a campaign platform via email on August 30 which calls for major political and economic reforms. If elected, Shosalimov promises to establish strong relations with the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and will allow farmers to sell cotton and wheat directly on the market. He also promises to respect basic political freedoms and establish the independence of the judiciary. ALLIANCE CANDIDATES UNDER 24-HOUR SURVEILLANCE -------------- - ¶4. (C) During a meeting on September 4, Tojibuy-ugli and Shaymardanov told poloff that each of the three Alliance candidates and one other Alliance member, Elena Urlayeva, have been under around the clock surveillance for the past two weeks. They said that they were each followed everywhere they went by two plain-clothed individuals, who constantly photographed them with their cell phone cameras. At night, their apartments were watched by police officers. Tojibuy-ugli said that he also was awoken one morning by a police officer knocking on his door, who then demanded to know all details of his planned meetings and travel for that day. Shosalimov also endured harassment earlier this year. In January, after Shosalimov attempted to file suit in the Supreme Court to contest Karimov's right to remain in office until the next election, Tashkent police responded by detaining his wife for a seven-hour "discussion" in which officers reportedly urged her to keep her husband out of politics (ref A). REGISTRATION POSES SERIOUS OBSTICLE FOR CANDIDATES -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Shaymardanov explained to poloff the difficult two-stage process that individuals must follow to be officially registered as presidential candidates. According to Shaymardanov, a potential candidate must first organize a meeting with at least 300 supporters and collect their signatures, including their full names, passport numbers, and addresses. Then they must submit the signatures and other required documents to the Central Electoral Commission in TASHKENT 00001606 002 OF 003 Tashkent. If the Electoral Commission accepts the documents, to complete the registration, the candidate has two months to collect signatures of at least 5 percent of eligible voters in eight provinces, two of which must be Tashkent and Karakalpakstan. ¶6. (C) Shaymardanov estimated that the second-stage of the registration process would require collecting roughly 600,000 signatures in two months, a nearly impossible feat for independent candidates lacking the support of one of the five officially-registered political parties. On the other hand, Shaymardanov did not believe it would be difficult for President Karimov or another officially-supported candidate to collect the necessary signatures. Shaymardanov believed that the registration procedure was purposefully designed to prevent the registration of independent candidates. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S DAUGHTER IN KHOREZM BEATEN -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Another self-proclaimed candidate for president is Suhbat Abdullayev, a well-respected medical doctor and academic in Khorezm province. On August 16, the independent Uznews.net website reported that Abdullayev's daughter was severely beaten by a group of women at a bazaar in the Shavat District of Khorezm province. According to the article, Abdullayev already has collected and submitted the necessary 300 signatures to the Central Electoral Commission. ¶8. (C) On August 24, dissident academic Tashpulat Yuldashev told poloff that authorities have accused Abdullayev of insulting the woman and thus provoking the attack on his daughter. However, Yuldashev did not accept this account, as Abdullayev claimed not to have even been with his daughter at the time of the attack. Yuldashev also observed that frustration at the current regime is growing more manifest, and he believed that it would no longer be difficult to collect 300 signatures, even though people must include their full names, passport numbers and addresses. POSSIBLE "STRAWMAN" CANDIDATES TO RUN AGAINST KARIMOV -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) In addition, rumors abound in Tashkent about whether a "strawman" candidate may be tapped by the Government to run against Karimov to make the election appear more democratic. In the last presidential election in 2000, this role was occupied by People-Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (PDPU) leader Abdulhasiz Julalov, who famously remarked on the eve of the election that he intended to vote for President Karimov. Human Rights Ombudsman Head of Staff Maruf Usmanov (strictly protect),a reliable Embassy contact in Parliament, told Embassy FSN in August that a likely candidate is Latif Gulomov, the current PDPU leader. Usmanov reported a rumor to Embassy FSN that Gulomov has already been told by the National Security Service that he will run against Karimov. Usmanov also noted that unlike the leaders of the other four officially-registered political parties, Gulomov has not been made a Vice Speaker of Parliament, which Usmanov took as a sign that he may be given another job shortly, such as running against Karimov this fall. ¶10. (C) Adolat Nasirova (strictly protect),an Uch-Tepe region ex-deputy Hokim and reliable Embassy contact, told poloff in August that another person who may be forced to run against Karimov is National Mahalla Fund Advisory Council Chairman Sobit Imamov. According to Nasirova, Imamov is highly respected and was recently rated as the most effective Mahalla Committee Chairman in Tashkent. According to Nasirova, if Imamov is not chosen to run against Karimov, he will continue to play an important role in organizing the election on the local level. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) If an election is held this December, we have no doubt that Karimov will be reelected. None of the self-declared candidates is well-known in Uzbekistan and their candidacies are likely to go unnoticed by the majority of Uzbekistan's population. Given the difficult registration procedures they face, we would be surprised if any of them even make a serious effort at registering as official candidates. However, it will be interesting to see if TASHKENT 00001606 003 OF 003 President Karimov or a handpicked "strawman" candidate follows the registration procedures themselves. With the exception of Abdullayev, the self-declared candidates have experienced relatively low levels of harassment so far, but this may intensify after an official announcement on elections is made by the President. ¶12. (C) Another train of speculation is that no elections will take place. Instead, some observers suggest, President Karimov will find an alternate route to remain in power. This might be a referendum, or an act of parliament, extending his term. HANSON