ESTONIA: AFGHANISTAN, YES - IRAQ, YES FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000693 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS AF IZ EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA: AFGHANISTAN, YES - IRAQ, YES FOR NOW REF: IIR 6954000308 Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. On October 24, the Government of Estonia (GOE) submitted for Parliamentary approval four bills to extend Estonian participation in ongoing foreign military operations (Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia) and one to authorize deployment of troops (the EU Nordic Battle Group). While we expect all five bills to pass, the Iraq extension is the most controversial and the vote on that mission will be close. A shortage of manpower and the priority given to other missions makes it uncertain whether the GOE will extend the Iraq mission beyond 2008. End Summary. Renewing Estonia,s Foreign Operations, Mandates -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) On October 24, the GOE submitted five defense-related bills to the parliament,s National Defense Committee (NDC). These bills address Estonia,s foreign military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and the EU Nordic Battle Group (EUNBG). The GOE,s bills propose a 12 month mandate for each mission. ¶3. (SBU) The NDC will begin debating all five bills on November 5. With the exception of Iraq, the legislation is expected to pass without much controversy. According to Aivar Engel, NDC Secretariat Director, the committee will begin discussing all five bills on November 5 and hopes to have them ready by November 14 for the first of three readings by the full Parliament. - AFGHANISTAN: The current mission mandate finishes on December 9 and the Parliament will give priority to approving the Afghanistan bill. Engel told us the final vote will take place on/about December 3-7. - IRAQ: The current mission mandate concludes at the end of December. Engel told us the NDC hopes to have a final vote in parliament by December 12-19. However, as in previous years, this timing is predicated on achieving a new UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) for Iraq in New York. - KOSOVO, BOSNIA, AND EUNBG: The Kosovo and Bosnia bills propose extending the EDF,s peacekeeping contributions for another year. The EUNBG bill would authorize the EDF to contribute 2 platoons to the EU Battle Group. At the moment, the EUNBG,s mission remains undecided. There is strong support across the board in Parliament for these three bills. According to Engel, the NDC may tack them to the Afghanistan bill schedule. However, even if they are debated separately, the NDC expects parliament to take the final vote in December. Parliamentary Battle Lines over Iraq -------------- ¶4. (C) In the 101 seat parliament, the six parties have fallen into the following camps on Iraq: - OPPOSED TO IRAQ: In the last couple of weeks, two of three opposition parties -- Center (29 Members of parliament and People,s Union (PU - 6 MPs) -- have gone on record that they will vote against the GOE,s bill. The Center Party, which has faced declining support since the April Bronze Soldier riots, appears intent on gaining political traction by opposing the Iraq mission. Center has publicly supported an online petition calling for the GOE to bring back Estonia,s troops from Iraq. - SUPPORTS IRAQ: Two of the three coalition parties -- the Estonian Reform Party (31 MPs) and Isamaa-Res Publica Union (IRL -- 19 MPs) continue to staunchly support the Iraq mission. (Note: Together, Reform and IRL hold 50 votes in the parliament, 1 less than necessary to approve the bill. End Note.) Prominent Reform and IRL members in Parliament, including NDC Chairman Mati Raidma (Reform),and IRL Party Chairman (and former Prime Minister) Mart Laar, have maintained consistent support for the Iraq mission. - DIVIDED OVER IRAQ: The Social Democrats (SDE - 10 MPs),and the Estonian Greens (6 MPs),are deeply divided over Iraq. According to party leaders, both the SDE and the Greens plan to allow their MPs a &free vote8 (i.e. not require a party line vote). Our SDE and Green interlocutors estimated that 3-5 SDE MPs and 2-3 Green MPs will vote in favor of the Iraq bill. ¶5. (C) The GOE is confident it has the 51 votes it needs in parliament to pass the Iraq bill. Our Center and PU interlocutors admitted to us that Reform and IRL have done an excellent job in securing the necessary votes and that they do not believe they can defeat extension of the Iraq mandate this year. Challenges on the Horizon -------------- ¶6. (C) At a press conference on October 18, Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo reiterated the GOE,s support for the Iraq mission, but noted that Estonia,s presence in Iraq is not an open-ended commitment. Aaviksoo said, &For the time being Estonia has no intention of extending the mission beyond 2008.8 In contrast, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and Foreign Minister Urmas Paet continue to publicly argue that Estonian troops will stay in Iraq for as long as they are needed. According to our Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) interlocutors, Aaviksoo,s recent statement is driven by the EDF,s personnel shortages, rather than political pressure or a change in GOE policy. ¶7. (C) As Estonia,s foreign military obligations have grown over the past three years, the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) have had to draw upon new soldiers fresh from conscription service and members of the National Guard to meet Estonia,s NATO obligations in Kosovo, Bosnia, and the EUNBG. Eight percent of Estonia,s forces are already deployed in foreign operations. The EDF has relied on its Scouts Battalion, its best trained troops, for the bulk of the Iraq and Afghanistan deployments. As a result, the turnover rate has increased significantly in the Scouts Battalion among soldiers who have served multiple and successive deployments to Iraq and/or Afghanistan. This has worsened the personnel shortages. ¶8. (C) In 2010, Estonia is scheduled to contribute up to 240 troops to NATO,s Response Force 14 (NRF-14). Art Nomm, MOD Deputy Operations Director, opined to us that as early as 2009 Estonia,s obligation to support NRF-14 could &overwhelm8 the EDF,s resources. According to Lt. Colonel Indrek Sirel, EDF Acting Commander of Land Forces, it may be too late to make the necessary changes to EDF personnel resources to meet all of the GOE,s upcoming commitments (Reftel). It is unlikely that the MOD will reduce its commitments to Afghanistan, as it is the GOE,s highest priority. Our MOD and EDF interlocutors have told us that drawing down the Iraq mission may be necessary to ensure there are some adequately trained professional soldiers for NRF-14. DECKER