ESTONIA'S ELECTION RESULTS

UNCLAS TALLINN 000143 SIPDIS FOR STATE EUR/NB SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S ELECTION RESULTS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The center-right Reform Party won the most seats in Estonia's March 4 parliamentary election, earning Andrus Ansip, Reform Chairman and Prime Minister, the opportunity to form the next government. PM Ansip essentially has two options for coalition building: forming a center-right coalition with Pro Patria-Res Publica Union (IRL) and at least one other party or, negotiating a new, two-party coalition agreement with current partner, Edgar Savisaar's populist Center Party. This election was the world's first national election which allowed voters to cast their ballots via the internet. Voter turnout (61.9%) was higher than expected. End Summary. The Results: Reform Comes out on Top -------------- ¶2. (U) Six parties won seats in the new Parliament, including the recently established Estonian Greens. The percentage of total votes received and the distribution of seats in the 101-seat parliament is outlined below. Five parties (including all of the ethnic Russian parties) that participated in the election did not make the 5% threshold for seats in parliament. PARTY PERCENT SEATS CHANGE IN SEATS (2003 ELECTION) - Reform 27.8% 31 +12 - Center 26.1% 29 +1 - Pro Patria/ 17.9% 19 -16 Res Publica Union (IRL) - Social 10.6% 10 +4 Democrats (SDE) - Estonian 7.1% 6 +7 Greens - People's 7.1% 6 -7 Union -------------- - Estonian 1.7% 0 0 Christian Democrats - Constitution 0.2% 0 0 Party - Independence 0.2% 0 0 Party - Russian Party 0.2% 0 0 In Estonia - Left Party 0.1% 0 0 - Independent 0.1% 0 0 Candidates (Note: The last column compares the parties new seat totals with the official number of seats they held after the 2003 Parliamentary election. However, in some cases, the number of seats actually controlled by the parties changed during the course of the last parliament's term because some MPs changed parties. End note.) ¶3. (U) All parties currently represented in parliament succeeded in returning. No independent candidates were elected. Prime Minister and Reform Party Chairman, Andrus Ansip, received the largest number of votes in Estonian history (22,556 votes). Center Party Chairman and Minister of Economy, Edgar Savisaar, came second (18,013 votes) followed by Tartu Mayor and Reform member Laine Janes with 9,311 votes, IRL Prime Minister candidate Mart Laar with 9,252 votes and Foreign Minister and Reform member Urmas Paet with 8,684 votes. ¶4. (U) Overall, voter turnout was higher than expected. 61.9% (546,139) of all eligible voters went to the polls (compared with 58% in the 2003 election). Voter turn- out was highest in Tallinn's third district (73%),while the lowest share of eligible voters cast ballots in the (predominantly Russian-speaking) north-eastern county of Ida-Virumaa (53%). Now Comes the Hard Part: Forming a New Government -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) The process for forming a new government is complicated and will likely take several weeks. The new parliament's mandate formally begins the day after the National Electoral Committee officially certifies. The President will appoint a candidate for Prime Minister to form the new government. Before the election, President Toomas Hendrik Ilves pledged to give the first opportunity to form a government to the Prime Ministerial candidate of the party which won the most seats -- Andrus Ansip. After he is officially nominated, PM Ansip will have two weeks to form a government coalition. PM Ansip will become the first sitting PM to be re-elected in Estonia's history since re- independence. ¶6. (U) Since no single party won a majority of 51 seats, Ansip will have to negotiate a coalition agreement with at least one other party. He essentially has two options for doing this: -- Negotiate a center-right oriented coalition with former PM Mart Laar's ideologically like-minded IRL. Together, a Reform-IRL coalition only controls 50 seats. As a result, such a coalition would also need the participation of at least one other party: the SDE, the Greens or (less likely) the People's Union. Each of these parties, though, would present a set of challenges for reaching a coalition agreement (e.g., the SDE disagrees with Reform on taxes, while the Greens oppose Reform's support for nuclear energy). Additionally, Reform and IRL have had a fractious history, most noticeably during the last center-right coalition government (2003-2005) which collapsed due to internal differences. -- Renegotiate a coalition agreement with current partner, the populist Center Party, led by controversial Minister of Economy Edgar Savisaar. No other party would be necessary in such a coalition, as together the two parties control 60 seats. In the current coalition, Reform has shown it can work with Center, despite differences over key issues including tax policy, Iraq, and issues related to Estonia's Russian-speaking minority. E-Voting: First in the World -------------- ¶7. (U) Estonia's parliamentary election was the world's first national election to allow voters to use the internet to cast their ballot. (Note - Estonia actually first allowed e-voting in the 2005 local election. End Note.) 3.4% of voters (30,275) voted online -- three times the number who voted this way in 2005. Over a third of online votes went to Reform (34.5%). Center and People's Union received just 12.7% of online votes. Estonia's national identity card doubles as a smart card with an integrated electronic chip that allows for secure remote authentication and legally binding digital signatures. Voters could vote online from February 26 to 28 and change their electronic vote an unlimited number of times prior to Election Day. ¶8. (SBU) Comment. We expect coalition negotiations to take several weeks. Reform's electoral success and Ansip's personal historical vote total put him in a position of strength to negotiate a coalition agreement. In his interviews following announcement of the preliminary election results, Ansip was quick to say it is too early to talk about the new coalition's make-up and that "nothing can be ruled out." However, hinting at his negotiating strategy, Ansip also pointed out that Reform has more in common with IRL than with current coalition partners, Center and People's Union. Post will closely monitor and report on progress on coalition negotiations in the coming weeks. JOHNSON