Taipei Economic Brief for April 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000965 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/EP USTR FOR ALTBACH and Stratford USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF GOVERNORS, SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN, AND NEW YORK FRB MARI BOLIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON PINR TW SUBJECT: Taipei Economic Brief for April 2007 ¶1. This cable summarizes selected April 2007 economic events in Taiwan: --Domestic Demand to Spur Economic Growth --Trade Surplus Doubles --Illegal Cross-Strait Remittance Operations Closed --ProMOS to Use 0.18-Micron Technology in China --Personal Bankruptcy Law Concerns Bankers --Medical Treatment Tourism --Select Service Partner to Enter Taiwan --Ambitious Wind Power Program Domestic Demand to Spur Economic Growth -------------- ¶2. On April 19, the Chunghua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) estimated Taiwan's 2007 real economic growth will slow to 4.17% from 4.6% in 2006 due mainly to weakening global demand for Taiwan products. The CIER said that the main force behind Taiwan's 2007 economic growth will shift to domestic demand. Expansion of domestic demand should contribute 57% of Taiwan's real GDP growth in 2007, up from 25% in 2006. The CIER predicted that private consumption growth in 2007 will increase to 2.8% from 1.5% in 2006. Meanwhile, domestic investment will reverse from a decline of 0.2% in 2006 to growth of 1.6% in 2007. ¶3. Prices remained stable with the consumer price index in Q1 reporting a y-o-y 1% rise although import costs of grains and metals increased sharply. The average unemployment rate in Q1 of 2007 declined to 3.84% from 3.86% a year ago. Trade Surplus Doubles -------------- ¶4. Taiwan's exports in Q1 grew 8.5% y-o-y to US$54.5 billion, while its imports rose 3% to US$48.2 billion, causing Taiwan's trade surplus in Q1 to surge to US$6.3 billion; double a year earlier. However, Taiwan's trade surplus with the United States in Q1 fell 28% to US$1.6 billion. A sharp rise in grain prices, inter alia, drove up Taiwan's imports from the United States by 13%, while increased offshore production of orders caused Taiwan's shipments to the United States to level off. A decline in international oil prices from over US$70 per barrel in mid-2006 to US$50 in early 2007 caused Taiwan's imports from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to fall 11%. Keen competition from China's other production input suppliers slowed the growth in Taiwan's exports to China to 7% in Q1 from 16% a year ago. Exports to Greater China (including Hong Kong) seem to be leveling off, and as a share of Taiwan's total exports slipped slightly from 39.4% to 38.9%. Vietnam's accession to the WTO in November 2006 stimulated exports to Vietnam in Q1 to grow 28% and made Vietnam Taiwan's sixth largest export market, up from tenth a year earlier. Cross-Strait Remittance Operations Closed -------------- ¶5. Taiwan's Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MJIB) raided eight underground cross-Strait remittance operations at 13 locations across the island. MJIB arrested fourteen individuals who were charged with violating Taiwan's Banking Law and Anti-Money Laundering Law. They are alleged to have remitted more than NT$2.1 billion (US$63 million) to China through illegal channels. Several were PRC nationals who had obtained residency in Taiwan through marriages or sponsorship by relatives. One operation had an online service for cross-strait e-remittances. Taiwan's underground cross-Strait remittance networks are reportedly very active because the island maintains tight regulations on direct remittance to TAIPEI 00000965 002 OF 003 China. MJIB has investigated 43 cases in the last five years, involving remittances valued at NT$136.2 billion (US$4.1 billion). ProMOS to Use 0.18-Micron Technology in China -------------- ¶6. On April 19, 2007, ProMOS Technologies Inc. became the second Taiwan company to receive approval to produce semiconductor chips with feature size of 0.18 microns in China. Taiwan's Investment Commission approved Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) in March. Previously, Taiwan firms were limited to using less advanced 0.25-micron technology. TSMC will upgrade its facility near Shanghai, which has been operational since late 2004. ProMOS expects its new US$365 million facility near Chengdu will become operational in 2008. Personal Bankruptcy Law Concerns Bankers -------------- ¶7. In early April, the Legislative Yuan (LY) Judicial Committee passed the first reading of the draft "Consumer Debt Resolution Act." Individuals with outstanding unsecured debt below NT$12 million (US$363,600) may apply to the court for resolution and debt repayment. The bill does not require any credit counseling prior to a resolution or bankruptcy process. A repayment plan can be approved by the court without the creditor banks' agreement. A debtor may apply to the court for resolution after repaying 20% of his debt. Debtors may continue to own houses. Local and foreign banks are concerned the law is overly beneficial to debtors. In response, the Financial Supervisory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the ruling DPP Party have expressed opposition to the bill. Medical Treatment Tourism -------------- ¶8. Following Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea, Taiwan has revised visa regulations to allow "medical treatment tourism" in Taiwan. A medical treatment visa will allow visa-holders to extend their stay beyond the current six-month limit on a case-by-case basis. The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said Taiwan's medical care sector offers high-quality, inexpensive services. Medical costs in Taiwan are 60-80% less than in the United States and Europe. Local hospitals have responded positively, suggesting that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs allow longer stays so that patients can complete a full course of treatment and recovery. The CEPD will urge major international insurance companies to market products that will permit foreign nationals to receive medical treatment in Taiwan. The first group of 19 patients came from Singapore on April 16 for kidney dialysis. Select Service Partner to Enter Taiwan -------------- ¶9. Select Service Partner (SSP) (of Scandinavia) will organize a joint venture with Haoyun, a local food services vendor, to provide food and beverage services at airports and urban areas around Taiwan. SSP is the largest catering vendor for transportation hubs in Europe. The new venture, called SSP Taiwan, will invest NT$100 million (US$3 million). Each of the two partners will contribute 50% of the capital. SSP Taiwan currently operates a trial food and beverage operation called Salon de Taipei at the Taiwan World Trade Center, and plans to start operations at the Taoyuan International Airport. SSP believes that influx of mainland Chinese tourists after Taiwan lifts the ban will bring huge trade opportunities in the catering sector. TAIPEI 00000965 003 OF 003 Ambitious Wind Power Program -------------- ¶10. On Earth Day April 22, 2007, 23 wind power generators built by the state-owned Taiwan Power Company (TPC) in central Taiwan began commercial operation. Taiwan now has 103 operating wind power generators whose combined annual electricity output is estimated at 423 million kwh. The TPC claimed that the 103 generators will prevent Taiwan from releasing 250,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year because each kwh of power turned out by a generator burning fossil fuel produces 0.6 kg carbon dioxide. Taiwan will increase the installed capacity of wind power generators from 168,000 kw at present to 2.16 million kw by 2010. Wind power will increase its contribution from 0.45% of Taiwan's total installed capacity to 4.2% over the next three years. YOUNG