NEW MAC CHAIRMAN CHEN MING-TONG DOWNBEAT ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000930 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/TC COMMERCE FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAIR ECON CH TW SUBJECT: NEW MAC CHAIRMAN CHEN MING-TONG DOWNBEAT ON CROSS-STRAIT TIES; COMBATIVE ON SOVEREIGNTY ISSUES Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 b/d ¶1. (C) Summary: In an April 26 meeting with the AIT Director, the new Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman, Chen Ming-tong, argued the case for Taiwan to take action soon to preserve its sovereignty in the face changes in the cross-Strait status quo. The Director emphasized the benefits Taiwan has enjoyed under the status quo and urged Taiwan to avoid raising cross-Strait tensions. Chairman Chen stated that an agreement on cross-Strait charter flights and tourism depended on Beijing's attitude toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration in Taipei but surmised that an agreement would not be possible after late July due to intensified election campaigning in Taiwan. He also told the Director that Taiwan authorities have decided to reject the PRC proposal that the Olympic torch relay enter Taiwan from another country and exit to Hong Kong. Despite protestations that he is no longer working on new constitution for Taiwan, Chairman Chen appears to continue to see himself as a supra-governmental advisor to President Chen on constitution and sovereignty issues. End summary. ¶2. (S) AIT Director Young met for the first time with Chen Ming-tong in Chen's capacity as the new MAC Chairman on April 26, to discuss prospects for cross-Strait relations in the final year of the Chen Shui-bian presidency. Chen Ming-tong took over as MAC Chairman on April 12. Prior to that, he was a professor at National Taiwan University and served as MAC Vice Chairman from 2000 to 2004. Recently, Chen Ming-tong has received widespread attention as drafter and proponent of a "Republic of China (ROC) Second Republic Constitution." He has argued that such a constitution would not be an instrument for de jure independence because it maintains continuity of the ROC. The PRC's Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) criticized the draft constitution, saying its preface affirmed Chen Shui-bian's "one country each side" theory. Chairman Chen had also previously confirmed to us media reports that he acted as a secret envoy to the PRC in fall 2005 on behalf of President Chen. His discussions in Beijing at that time focused on a draft statement for President Chen endorsing a variation of a one-China policy, which never gelled. Second Constitution - Still a Focus -------------- ¶3. (C) Early in the conversation with the Director, Chairman Chen told an anecdote about the necessity of separating his role as a professor and drafter of the second republic constitution from his new position as MAC Chairman. He insisted to the Director that he was no longer working on the second republic constitution. However, he spent much of the rest of the discussion arguing the need for Taiwan to take action in the near future to preserve its sovereignty. He presented the Director with a copy of a recent op-ed piece he had written on why Taiwan should adopt a second republic constitution. ¶4. (C) The Director responded by arguing that the cross- Strait status quo had given Taiwan the opportunity to develop its democracy, prosper economically and protect its security. Chairman Chen acknowledged that this was true until 2000 but argued that changes since then have altered the status quo, emphasizing the PRC's passage of the 2005 Anti-Succession Law and the Lien Chan-Hu Jintao and James Soong-Hu Jintao communiques. He claimed Beijing had recently approached former President Lee Teng-hui with a proposal for a visit to the PRC and a similar communique. Beijing is trying to divide Taiwan, Chen insisted, and if it succeeds Taiwan is "finished." He believes that if the PRC recognized the ROC, the two sides could move toward political integration. He cited the European Union as a possible model for integration and said President Chen supported such an approach. ¶5. (C) The Director told Chairman Chen that there was danger in thinking that the cross-Strait situation must be resolved quickly. Instead, he advised that Taiwan needed TAIPEI 00000930 002 OF 003 to preserve its longstanding ability to chart its own future under the status quo. Failure of Taiwan and the United States to work effectively together on these issues could damage our relationship, he said. The Director delivered a clear message that the United States government was concerned at the most senior levels about the possibility of Taiwan actions raising cross-Strait tensions. He noted that the United States had a commitment to Taiwan's security under the Taiwan Relations Act but explained that this commitment was made with the understanding that Taiwan would not provoke a cross-Strait military conflict. Charter Flights and Tourism - No Chance after July -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) On the prospects for cross-Strait discussions on charter flight and tourism under the nominal leadership of industry organizations, Chairman Chen reported that his predecessor, Joseph Wu, had done a good job and almost all technical issues in both sets of discussions had been resolved. According to Chen, it is now up to Beijing to make a political decision. Beijing must decide whether it wants to wait until 2008 to avoid giving any credit to the DPP that could help it win the presidency again. On the other hand, he said if Beijing waits for a Kuomintang government in 2008 before moving forward, it will face strong resistance from an opposition DPP determined to block any opening to China. Chairman Chen also suggested that Beijing might be more reluctant to make a deal now that he heads MAC because of his former efforts to promote a new constitution. He surmised that if the two sides cannot reach an agreement before late July, further progress will become impossible during the remaining months of the Chen Shui-bian administration because of intensified election politicking. Nevertheless, he said the charter flight and tourism negotiations were his highest priorities. If they reach agreement, he believes the proposed 1,000 tourists per day quota could quickly be raised to 3,000 per day. He also said that charter flights could be the first step toward regular direct air links within two to three years. (Comment: When discussing cross-Strait charter flight and tourism negotiations, Chairman Chen's tone was much less optimistic that of his predecessor in earlier conversations. Instead of setting a target date for completion, he established a deadline for failure. As we draw closer to that deadline, Chen's logic suggests the likelihood an agreement will become much diminished. End comment.) PRC Olympic Torch Proposal "Unacceptable" -------------- ¶7. (C) Chairman Chen informed the Director that Taiwan would formally reject the PRC's proposal for the Olympic torch relay to pass through Taiwan to be announced later in the day, April 26. He called the plan for the torch to enter Taiwan from another country and then leave to Hong Kong "unacceptable." He said Taiwan would only allow the torch relay to pass through Taiwan if it entered AND exited through "third countries." The Director urged Taiwan to show flexibility on issues that divide the two sides and put them aside for future generations when the PRC's leadership might be more flexible. The DPP should not raise cross-Strait tensions, he said. "If you choose to do so, you can't just blame Beijing." Comment - Pursuing a Mandate beyond MAC Chairman -------------- --- ¶8. (C) Despite his assertions to the contrary, Chen Ming- tong is still clearly playing the role of proponent of a second republic constitution. In his conversation with the Director, Chairman Chen's demeanor was occasionally combative as he argued the case for Taiwan to take action in the face of what he sees as dangerous changes to the status quo. He appears to continue to see himself as a supra-governmental advisor to President Chen on the TAIPEI 00000930 003 OF 003 constitution and Taiwan's sovereignty rather than an official in charge of managing the cross-Strait relationship. End comment. YOUNG