KAOHSIUNG PARTY LEADERS ON UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000843

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2027
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KAOHSIUNG PARTY LEADERS ON UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE
AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang.
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Kaohsiung DPP and KMT leaders recently told
AIT that the ruling DPP has boosted its support since coming
to power in 2000 by directing resources and attention to
Kaohsiung City, reversing the historical neglect of the south
by the previous KMT central government. KMT Legislator Lo
Shih-hsiung suggested that likely presidential candidate Ma
Ying-jeou is one of the few Mainlander politicians who can
cross the "ethnic divide" and appeal to Taiwanese voters.
Local DPP leaders stressed the importance of uniting the
party behind its presidential candidate after the current
intense primary process is completed. Kaohsiung City will
have five seats in the new Legislative Yuan (LY) to be
elected in late 2007 or early 2008. At this early stage,
local KMT leaders hope to win two or three seats, while the
DPP hopes to win three or four seats in this DPP heartland
city. End Summary.


2. (C) During a visit to Kaohsiung City on March 20, AIT/T
POL Chief and Deputy Chief, accompanied by AIT/K, discussed
local politics and upcoming legislative and presidential
elections with KMT City Chairman HSU Fu-ming, KMT Legislator
LO Shih-hsiung, DPP City Chairman CHANG Chih-ming, Kaohsiung
City Military Service Office Director CHAO Wen-nan (DPP),and
Frank Hsieh Workshop Director HSU Jen-tu (DPP). From these
discussions, it was clear that pan-Green and pan-Blue
supporters are now relatively evenly divided in Kaohsiung
City, a situation reflected in the razor-thin margin of
victory by the DPP's Chen Chu in the December 2006 mayoral
election.


3. (C) DPP leaders accused, and KMT leaders acknowledged,
the pre-2000 KMT central government had neglected Kaohsiung
and other areas in southern Taiwan. According to DPP City
Chairman Chang, the KMT had focused largely on Taipei,
Taiwan's political and business center, while ignoring
problems such as pollution in the port and industrial center
of Kaohsuing. Since coming to power in 2000, the DPP has
bolstered support for the party in Kaohsiung by devoting
greater attention and resources to the city. City official
Chao stressed the importance of the south to DPP election
strategy since the party relies on surplus votes from
southern Taiwan to make up for shortfalls in the north.

Presidential Election
--------------


4. (C) KMT and DPP interlocutors agreed that Taiwanese
identity is an important factor in southern Taiwan. KMT City
Chairman Hsu told AIT that his party's supporters hoped their
probable presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, a Mainlander,
would spend more time in southern Taiwan to better understand
the thoughts and views of local Taiwanese people. Only by
doing so could the KMT narrow the gap with the DPP in the
south, Hsu suggested. KMT Legislator Lo maintained that Ma
Ying-jeou is one of the few Mainlanders who can cross the
"ethnic (or provincial) divide" and appeal to Taiwanese
voters. Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, a
native Taiwanese, has hurt himself politically by attacking
Ma on the ethnic issue, Lo argued. Lo believed Ma may have
learned something from criticisms of his campaign style
during the Kaohsiung mayoral election: just shaking hands is
not enough to win votes; it is important to sit down, drink
tea, and establish a relationship with supporters. If Ma is
convicted in his ongoing corruption trial, Lo suggested that
might actually help Ma during the campaign, as the KMT can
mobilize supporters who believe in Ma's innocence. Lo
recommended that Ma select as his vice presidential running
mate a woman from the south with a clean image, such as
aborigine legislator Chang Jen-hsiang from Taitung.


5. (C) Local DPP leaders expressed concern about infighting
among the four candidates competing for the DPP presidential
nomination, with DPP City Chairman Chang observing that "the
most terrifying enemies are from your own party, because they
know you better." Nonetheless, Chang and other DPP
interlocutors predicted that DPP will follow tradition and
become strongly united after the primary battle, which will

TAIPEI 00000843 002 OF 003


be key to the party's efforts in the 2008 presidential
campaign. All three DPP contacts doubted that Frank Hsieh
and Premier Su Tseng-chang would be able to join each other
on a single ticket, though Hsieh-supporter Hsu Jen-tu said
their polling showed that a Hsieh-Su ticket would beat Ma
Ying-jeou by seven percentage points. Hsu suggested that
former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan, a Hakka woman,
would be an ideal running mate for Hsieh, and Chang Chih-ming
separately suggested Yeh Chu-lan would be a good vice
presidential candidate for the DPP.

Legislative Elections
--------------


6. (C) Kaohsiung City will have 5 of the total 73 district
seats in the new LY to be elected in December 2007 or January

20080. Two KMT leaders predicted their party will win 2-3 of
the city's 5 Legislative Yuan (LY) seats in December. One
DPP leader predicted a 4-1 advantage for his party, while the
local DPP party chief suggested that, while a DPP sweep is
possible, a more likely result will be a 3-2 win for the DPP.
While Kaohsiung City currently has 11 legislators -- 5 DPP,
2 KMT, 2 FFP, and 2 TSU -- most contacts did not expect the
small parties -- TSU and PFP -- to win any seats in Kaohsiung
City in December.


7. (C) According to AIT's KMT and DPP interlocutors, the
current situation in the five Kaohsiung City election
districts is as follows:

-- District 1: This district, which includes the Tsoying
Naval Base, has many Mainlander residents and is the most
heavily pan-Blue district in Kaohsiung. Mainlander support
has been gradually shifting from PFP to KMT. KMT at-large
legislator Huang Chao-shun, a legislator since 1992 and a
member of the KMT Central Standing Committee, is likely to
win in this district. She originally planned to run in the
2006 Kaohsiung mayoral election, but lost the KMT primary to
Huang Chun-ying. PFP legislator Chang Hsien-yao, Director of
the PFP Policy Research Center, is also from this district.
Despite his prominence in Taipei politics, Chang is unlikely
to win because he does not spend time working his
constituency in Kaohsiung. The DPP sees a realistic
possibility to win here only if two pan-Blue candidates split
the pan-Blue vote.

-- District 2: Close, with a slight advantage to the
pan-Green. The two major candidates are expected to be DPP
Legislator Kuan Bi-ling, a close protege of Frank Hsieh, and
KMT Legislator Lo Shih-hsiung, who is young, has a clean
image, and appeals to women and swing voters. TSU legislator
Tseng Tsan-teng is not a strong candidate.

SIPDIS

-- District 3: The DPP won this district by about 3,000
votes in the 2006 mayoral election. DPP Legislator Lee
Kun-tze, a nephew of Mayor Chen Chu, has a good reputation
and is favored to win. DPP Legislator Lin Chin-hsing, who is
controversial because of medical insurance fraud allegations
against the hospital he owns, has also registered for the
party primary in this district. On the KMT side, at-large
Legislator Ho Tsai-feng, who has strong grassroots support
and is a member of the KMT Central Standing Committee, has a
chance of winning this district.

-- District 4: The KMT, which took this district by 2,000
votes in the 2006 mayoral election, is likely to win. KMT
Legislator Lee Fu-hsing is a candidate. KMT Legislator Chiu
Yi, famous for sensational revelations and corruption charges
against President Chen and those close to him, was favored,
but had to pull out of the race after his conviction for
ramming a truck into a government office gate during a
protest after the party's March 2004 presidential loss. Most
contacts do not expect TSU legislator Lo Chih-ming to do
well, following his dismal performance in the 2006 Kaohsiung
mayoral election. Legislator Huang Chao-hui and former
government spokesman Yao Wen-chih are competing for the DPP
nomination.

-- District 5: The DPP has a strong majority in this
district, and incumbent DPP legislator Kuo Wen-chen is likely

TAIPEI 00000843 003 OF 003


to win.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) While southern Taiwan is generally viewed as the
Green heartland, Green and Blue supporters are virtually
evenly matched in Kaohsiung City. The highly competitive
politics in Kaohsiung City are similar to those at the
central level in Taipei and distinct from the more relaxed,
less polarized atmosphere in some of Taiwan's smaller cities
and rural areas. The developing trends in Kaohsiung over the
next year in the legislative and presidential races will
provide an important gauge for overall trends in Taiwan.


9. (U) This cable is a joint product of AIT/T and AIT/K.
YOUNG