THREE DPP PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000689

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: THREE DPP PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS DEBATE
PRO-INDEPENDENCE THEMES


Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/c)


1. (C) Summary: During the first of three scheduled DPP
presidential candidate debates, DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun on
March 24 underscored his Deep Green positions, including
eliminating the "four noes" commitment and promoting a new
constitution. Most interest focused, however, on Yu's
pointed attacks against Premier Su Tseng-chang for alleged
wavering during the political crisis faced by President Chen
late last year when First Lady Wu Shu-chen was indicted for
corruption. Yu's attacks will probably be ineffective since
President Chen has repeatedly denied the charges and
expressed support for Premier Su, both before and after the
debate. During the debate on Saturday, Su stressed the
achievements of the DPP government, highlighting his success
in changing "China" to "Taiwan" in the names of several
government-controlled entities. Former Premier Frank Hsieh
effectively fended off questions that implied he might be too
moderate, citing his role in crafting key DPP documents and
slogans and his record of support for constitutional change.
Vice President Annette Lu sat out this debate because of past
friction with the host organization, the pro-independence
Taiwan Society. End Summary.


2. (C) Premier Su Tseng-chang, former Premier Frank Hsieh,
and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, three of the four DPP
presidential hopefuls, locked horns in a three-hour televised
debate on Saturday, March 24 hosted by the pro-independence
Taiwan Society. President Chen and Deep Green elder Koo
Kwang-ming attended but did not speak at the event, which was
formally titled "Report to the People of Taiwan." Vice
President Annette Lu, the fourth DPP hopeful, declined to
join the debate because of an incident last year in which the
Taiwan Society, charging that Lu was "showing an ambition to
usurp the presidency," announced publicly that she would not
be welcome at a pro-Chen rally it was sponsoring.

Yu Attacks Su
--------------


3. (C) The debate Saturday focused heavily on Deep Green
ideological themes, with panelists trying to elicit whether
the candidates were firm in their convictions and in their
loyalty to the DPP and President Chen. In addition to
opening and closing statements, the three candidates
responded to two sets of questions from four panel members,
one set on the candidates' records and the other on their
future plans if elected president. In the period leading up
to the event, Yu had argued that the debate should focus on
the political "line" of the candidates, including whether
they had stood resolutely by the party and President Chen
late last year when First Lady Wu Shu-chen was indicted for
corruption. During the debate, Yu underscored his support
for Deep Green causes, such as establishing a new
constitution and getting rid of the "four noes" commitment
that President Chen first made to the U.S. in 2000. Yu also
pointedly attacked Su, repeating charges, first levied by
Vice President Lu, that during the political crisis late last
year Su had pressured Chen by threatening to resign.


4. (C) Su refuted Yu's account of past events by reading a
recent statement of President Chen supporting Su's version
that his offer, not threat, to resign was made to help rather
than hurt Chen. Yu did not let the matter drop, however,
using his closing statement to accuse Su of making overtures
to the KMT opposition in preparation for a possible
resignation by President Chen. Yu offered to visit a temple
to swear to the truth of what he was saying. Su did not have
an opportunity to respond to Yu's final attacks but
criticized Yu strongly in comments to the media immediately
afterward. Subsequently, President Chen again came out in
defense of Su against Yu's charges.

Su/Hsieh Defend Themselves Against Charges of Moderation
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The debate provided both Su and Hsieh the opportunity
to defend themselves against recent charges of possible
wavering on pro-independence issues. Su repeated established

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DPP positions and reviewed the accomplishments of the DPP
government, stressing that his approach was to "do more and
say less." He cited his recent moves to rectify the names of
several entities, including dropping "Chiang Kai-shek" from
the name of the Taoyuan International Airport and issuing the
first postage stamps under the name Taiwan rather than
Republic of China. According to Su, the government's success
in carrying out such name rectifications was because care was
taken to prevent leaks ahead of time and the changes were
carried out very quickly.


6. (C) Asked about his references to the "one China
constitution of the ROC" and whether he was too "centrist,"
Hsieh pulled out an old news article, which showed that as
Premier he had proposed publicly in the Legislative Yuan (LY)
that the one China provision should be removed from the
constitution. Hsieh also noted his role in drafting the
party's charter, in devising key party slogans including
"Taiwan first," and in launching the campaign to join the UN.
Questioned about his calls for harmony and coexistence,
Hsieh stressed the need for ethnic harmony among all people
working for Taiwan's interests but added that the PRC
military threat against Taiwan precluded harmonious
coexistence with China at this point.

"Four Noes" and Constitutional Change
--------------


7. (C) Calling President Chen's "four noes" commitment to
the U.S. a failure, Yu argued that the right of Taiwan's
people to determine their future cannot be restricted in any
way. Su said he would withstand outside pressure, refrain
from making any promises, and do nothing to compromise
Taiwan's independent and sovereign status. While saying he
would not promise the U.S. anything because the results of
democracy are beyond anybody's control, Hsieh also stressed
the importance of maintaining good communications and mutual
trust with the U.S. On the constitution, Yu argued that
Taiwan could use a referendum to establish a new
constitution, bypassing current legal procedures that require
LY approval of proposed constitutional changes. Hsieh
refuted Yu's idea, arguing that it is not provided for in the
current constitution, there is no way to organize such a
referendum, and other governments would not accept the
results.


8. (C) The DPP will hold two presidential debates in middle
and late April, with all four DPP candidates planning to
participate. Following these debates, the DPP has scheduled
a two-part presidential primary process: a May 6 vote by
party members (weighted 30 percent) and May 7-28 public
opinion polls (weighted 70 percent),the combined results
being used to determine the presidential candidate. However,
if President Chen succeeds in his efforts to mediate an
agreement among the four candidates on who should represent
the party against the KMT (despite some public indications
that he was giving up such efforts),then there would be no
need to complete the full presidential primary process.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Stuck at the bottom in polling, Yu presumably was
hoping to undermine frontrunner Su Tseng-chang to try to
improve his own standing in the candidate pecking order.
Yu's strategy may well have backfired, however. President
Chen, who blames Yu for blocking his efforts to mediate among
the four DPP hopefuls, has gone out of his way both to defend
Su against the charges of Yu and Vice President Lu and to
endorse his Premier's performance by stating publicly that Su
is "doing a very good job, better and better." In the
debate, Hsieh may have done the best job in presenting his
ideas and defending himself against charges of excessive
moderation. Hsieh also benefited from not being the target
of Yu's attacks. President Chen's repudiation of Yu would
appear to make Yu the clear loser in this debate. While Su's
performance was credible and sincere, he lacks Hsieh's
polished debating skills. By attending the debate from
beginning to end, President Chen clearly showed his intention
to continue playing a major role in the DPP candidate

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selection process.

WANG