ACTING DPP CHAIRMAN TRONG CHAI ON DPP POLITICS, MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000676

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: ACTING DPP CHAIRMAN TRONG CHAI ON DPP POLITICS, MA
YING-JEOU, AND U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: During a meeting with the Director on March
21, acting DPP Chairman Trong Chai predicted that the DPP
will defeat former KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008
presidential election because the Taiwanese people will not
accept Ma's proposal for a "peace agreement" with China that,
in Chai's view, demeans Taiwan's status. Ma's decision to
announce his presidential candidacy just after being indicted
will also hurt Ma, Chai argued. Chai said he expected the
trial of First Lady Wu Shu-chen to conclude around June. If
Wu is convicted, President Chen will be under pressures and
have to decide whether to fulfill his commitment to step
down. The Director noted the perceived diminishing of
support for Taiwan in the U.S., and expressed hope Taiwan
will act responsibly in approving the defense budget and
refraining from pro-independence rhetoric and actions. Chai
said he fully understood the U.S. position that Taiwan should
not create problems leading to confrontation with China.
However, he added, DPP leaders face a difficult task in
balancing between their dreams and international realities.
End Summary.

DPP Politics
--------------


2. (C) Acting DPP Chairman Trong Chai (Tsai Tung-jung) told
the Director on March 21 that his three main functions will
be: 1) to hold party primaries to determine Legislative Yuan
(LY) and presidential candidates, 2) to collect the one
million signatures required to hold a referendum on
recovering ill-gotten KMT party assets and, 3) to nominate a
DPP candidate to run in the special Keelung mayoral election
in May. The primaries consist of two parts, a vote by party
members and a public opinion poll, Chai noted, adding that
the party is still debating proposed rules that would exclude
smaller or larger percentages of likely pan-Blue supporters
from DPP candidate selection polls. Chai noted that the
signature drive for the referendum on KMT party assets is
behind schedule and he said that the DPP is also working to
promote a referendum on using the name "Taiwan" to apply to
join the UN,


3. (C) Whether the LY and presidential elections are held
separately or together will affect the results of the LY
elections, Chai observed, adding that the two elections could
be held together on either January 19 or 26. Normally the
turnout for presidential elections is much higher than for
legislative elections, and holding the two elections together
could boost turnout for the LY elections from less than 59
percent to as much as 83-85 percent. Although high voter
turnout traditionally benefits the DPP, combining the two
elections would also increase KMT vote buying damaging to the
DPP. The DPP will wait until after it selects a presidential
candidate in May to decide whether to support combined or
separate elections, Chai said, adding that he expected the
currently DPP-controlled Central Election Commission (CEC) to
decide the election scheduling based on the DPP's
recommendation.


4. (C) President Chen has been trying hard to mediate with
the four DPP hopefuls over the choice of a presidential and
vice presidential candidate, Chai noted. While Chen would
prefer Frank Hsieh and Premier Su Tseng-chang to be the
candidates, that still leaves the problem of DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun and Vice President Annette Lu so long as they
continue running. Because of this situation, the party will
have to prepare to hold a presidential primary in May, Chai
said.

Ma Ying-jeou's Liabilities
--------------


5. (C) Chai maintained that any one of the four DPP hopefuls
could win the 2008 presidential election against former KMT
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou because Ma has two liabilities. First,
Chai maintained, the majority of Taiwanese cannot accept Ma's
proposal for a cross-Strait arrangement. Ma, who believes in
the ultimate goal of unification, wants to have a "peace

TAIPEI 00000676 002 OF 003


agreement" with China (Note: Ma uses the term modus vivendi),
under which Beijing will pull back its missiles deployed
opposite Taiwan in return for a Taiwan pledge to adhere to
the one China principle. This agreement would make Taiwan a
local government in contrast to the Chinese national
government. The election will not be close if Ma uses this
as an election issue, Chai predicted. Chai also argued that
the KMT's policy of having different PRC and Taiwan
interpretations of one China is untenable because the
international community will hear only China's explanation
and not the explanation offered by Taiwan.


6. (C) Turning to his second point about Ma, Chai suggested
that Ma, who has set himself on a pedestal as the exemplar of
justice, has previously insisted on suspending the party
memberships of elected KMT officials who have been indicted.
In his own case, however, Ma declared his presidential
candidacy just three hours after being indicted. Chai
doubted that the people would accept Ma's double-standard
behavior despite indications by media polls that public
support for Ma had increased after he announced his
candidacy.

President Chen's Future
--------------


7. (C) During the presidential race, Chai suggested,
President Chen may focus on campaigning in the areas where he
remains popular, which can be determined through polling.
The trial of First Lady Wu Shu-chen will probably conclude
around June, Chai said. Although Chen has pledged to step
down if Wu is convicted, whether he would actually do so is
still an open question. The people around Chen would
probably ask him to stay on, but that would cost him
credibility. While Chen personally does not want to step
down, social forces might compel him to do so. If Chen
resigns and Annette Lu became president, that could
complicate the presidential nomination situation, Chai added.


U.S.-Taiwan Relations
--------------


8. (C) Turning to U.S.-Taiwan relations, the Director
pointed to the growing frustration among Taiwan's friends in
the U.S. over the inability of Taiwan's LY to pass the
defense budget. Chai stressed his support for arms
procurement and described the efforts he had made, not
successful so far, to promote political deals with the
opposition in return for their support for arms procurement.
Chai also emphasized Taiwan's need for U.S. assistance in the
event of a conflict. While arms sales are important, Taiwan
can only hold out on its own against a PRC attack for perhaps
just two weeks without U.S. assistance, Chai suggested. Chai
added that the people of Taiwan need to show they have the
will to defend themselves if they are to hope for U.S.
assistance.


9. (C) The Director reviewed the perceived diminishing of
support for Taiwan in the U.S. over the past 5-10 years. The
reasons for this development are complex, including new U.S.
foreign policy priorities on issues such as counterterrorism,
the growing importance of China, and questions about Taiwan's
reliability as a partner. Moves to promote Taiwan
independence are especially problematic, and some in the U.S.
are growing concerned that Taiwan may be prepared to take
risks that could provoke an unnecessary conflict with China.
Both Taiwan and the U.S. will be electing new presidents next
year, the Director observed. Approving arms procurement and
refraining from provocative statements or actions now can
help set a positive tone for future U.S.-Taiwan relations
under new U.S. and Taiwan administrations. On the other
hand, efforts to push sensitive constitutional changes,
referendums involving sovereignty issues, or a referendum on
using the name Taiwan to apply to join the UN, could present
challenges to the long-term policy of the U.S. toward Taiwan.



10. (C) Chai expressed appreciation for the Director's
remarks and said he fully understood the U.S. position and

TAIPEI 00000676 003 OF 003


policy. In sum, the U.S. does not want to confront China,
and therefore Taiwan should not create problems for the U.S.
However, Chai continued, from the Taiwanese perspective, it
is "very ridiculous" that the territory referred to in
Article 4 of the constitution includes Tibet and Mongolia.
In addition, the name "Republic of China" is easily confused
with China. While foreigners regularly refer to Taiwan,
Taiwan itself has to use the name "Republic of China" and not
"Taiwan." However, Chai added, DPP leaders face the
challenging task of balancing between their dreams and
international realities, which explains why President Chen
has moved back and forth in his statements over the past
seven years. Chai suggested that the growing economic
freedom in the PRC will lead toward political freedom, but,
in his view, even a democratic China might still keep the
same policy toward Taiwan.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The founding president of FAPA, Trong Chai's Deep
Green proclivities came through clearly in this meeting.
Nonetheless, Chai, who was a political science professor in
the U.S. for many years, also seems to have a relatively
sophisticated understanding of U.S. policy and of the
importance for Taiwan to ensure continued strong U.S.
support. Although Yu Shyi-kun's initial decision to appoint
Chai as acting chairman while Yu runs for the DPP
presidential nomination was controversial, the complaints
have since dropped off as Chai seems to have been performing
his role in a low-key, neutral and responsible manner.
YOUNG