DPP CHAIRMAN YU SHYI-KUN DISCUSSES U.S.-TAIWAN-PRC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000657

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW PREL CH
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRMAN YU SHYI-KUN DISCUSSES U.S.-TAIWAN-PRC
RELATIONS AND ELECTION POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: During a March 21 meeting, the Director told
DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, a candidate for the party's
presidential nomination, that Taiwan's current and future
leaders need to avoid independence-related moves that could
put at risk the democracy, prosperity, and strong U.S.
support the people on Taiwan now enjoy. Yu assured the
Director that Taiwan will not declare independence since it
is already an "independent, sovereign country," but added
that he would work toward making Taiwan a "normal country" if
elected president. Yu also said he would be open to
increasing cross-Strait economic exchanges so long as these
did not undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and security. On
election politics, Yu defended proposals to toughen the
polling rules used in DPP primaries to prevent the nomination
of candidates who build their political fortunes by attacking
their own party. Yu predicted that President Chen will
continue playing an active political role in the presidential
campaign after the DPP candidate is nominated. End Summary.

U.S.-Taiwan-PRC Relations
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2. (C) The Director met on March 21 with DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun, one of four candidates for the DPP presidential
nomination, to discuss election politics and U.S.-Taiwan
relations. The meeting was held at DPP headquarters, despite
the fact that Yu is currently taking a leave-of-absence while
he runs for the party's presidential nomination. The
Director reviewed the state of U.S.-Taiwan relations and the
PRC factor, noting the strong U.S. support for Taiwan's
democratic and economic achievements, as well as its
security. Given cross-Strait political sensitivities and the
PRC military threat to Taiwan, continued strong U.S. support
is vital for Taiwan, he stressed. The Director underscored
the importance for Taiwan's current and future leaders to act
prudently and avoid independence-related moves that could put
at risk the freedom, prosperity, and strong U.S. support now
enjoyed by the people on Taiwan.


3. (C) Yu complained that while Taiwan regularly listens to
U.S. advice, Beijing is unwilling to do the same. Through
increased missile deployments, the anti-secession law, and
rapid military modernization, China, not Taiwan, is
unilaterally changing the "status quo," Yu argued.
Nonetheless, Taipei remains willing to engage Beijing as long
as Taiwan is treated as an equal, and as president, Yu said,
he would be open to increasing cross-Strait economic
exchanges on the precondition that they do not undermine
Taiwan's sovereignty and security. Yu told the Director that
he would return the DPP to its "fundamental" values included
in the party's charter, but he emphasized that Taiwan would
not declare independence since it is already an "independent,
sovereign country." However, Taiwan faces uncertainties
because it is not a "normal country," Yu said, and he would
work to turn Taiwan into a "normal country." Yu urged the
U.S. to consider abandoning its "One China Policy," claiming
the policy was a relic from the Cold War standoff between the
KMT and Communists and does not reflect the view of Taiwan's
people.

Taiwan Politics
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4. (C) Turning to election politics, Yu told the Director
that the DPP is debating whether to exclude both Deep and
Light Blue supporters or only Deep Blue voters from polls
used in the party primaries to select presidential and
legislative candidates. Yu explained that some within the
DPP are calling for tougher polling rules, which would
exclude the Light Blue as well as the Deep Blue, to prevent
nomination of DPP candidates who try to boost their election
prospects by attacking their own party. Yu traced the
proposals for tougher rules to dissatisfaction with the
criticism of President Chen by some DPP members late last
year. On the KMT presidential nomination process, Yu
strongly doubted that former party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and
Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng would be able to bury past

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grievances and run together on the same ticket.


5. (C) Yu told the Director that the DPP presidential
candidate will be free to choose his or her own running mate
and there is no consensus that the winner of the primary
should necessarily choose the second place finisher as vice
presidential candidate. Yu noted that he had stated publicly
that he would choose a female running mate if he became the
presidential candidate. Yu predicted that President Chen
will continue playing an active role in mediating among the
four DPP contenders because that maximizes his influence. Yu
also suggested that, given Chen Shui-bian's personality, the
President will likely want to stay on the political
front-line and play an active role during the presidential
campaign, though he acknowledged some of the DPP hopefuls
would probably prefer that Chen step back into the shadows.

Comment
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6. (C) Yu was more reticent than usual, perhaps concerned
about possible reactions to his recent spate of Deep Green
election rhetoric. Trailing DPP frontrunners Premier Su
Tseng-chang and Frank Hsieh by a wide margin in public

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opinion polls, Yu has been playing up pro-independence themes
to try to win Deep Green support and he has also been most
resistant to President Chen's efforts to mediate among the
four candidates. Though not a strong speaker, Yu doubtless
hopes his Deep Green stance will help him to gain ground in
upcoming presidential debates. Some within the party charge
Yu with trying to benefit himself through the proposals to
toughen primary polling rules. While Yu remains the least
likely of the four candidates to win the DPP presidential
nomination, he may also be angling for the vice presidential
slot.
YOUNG