DPP CONTENDER FRANK HSIEH ON ELECTION POLITICS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000643 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2032 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: DPP CONTENDER FRANK HSIEH ON ELECTION POLITICS AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former Premier Frank Hsieh told the Director on March 19 that he faces a tough challenge in his quest to win the DPP presidential primary this spring. Politicians hoping to become Taiwan's next President in 2008, Hsieh said, will need to appeal to middle class voters by proposing sound policies that improve economic development and promote cross-Strait stability rather than emphasizing socially divisive issues such as Taiwan independence. During the DPP primary, however, the need to win some support from the DPP Deep Green may prove crucial and is pushing all four DPP candidates to move away from the middle. Hsieh expects President Chen will continue to play a "decisive" role in the primary despite his decision to stop mediating among the four DPP presidential candidates. Hsieh emphasized that the DPP's political platform is open and positive toward developing cross-Strait relations and suggested that if elected President in 2008 he would reinstate the "active opening, effective management" policy. END Summary. ¶2. (C) During a meeting with the Director on March 19, Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting),former Premier and contender for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 2008 presidential nomination, noted that Taiwan's rapid economic development over the past two decades has created a "middle class" society that wants political and economic stability. Politicians hoping to become Taiwan's next President in 2008, he said, will need to appeal to those middle class voters by proposing sound policies that improve economic development and promote cross-Strait stability rather than focusing primarily on socially divisive issues such as Taiwan independence. Hsieh noted that only about a quarter of Taiwan's voters are die-hard "political radicals" who support either the Green or Blue camp, but their voice tends to dominate the electoral process and they play an important role during party primaries. Selecting the DPP's Presidential Candidate -------------- ¶3. (C) Hsieh told the Director that he has a tough fight ahead of him in the DPP's presidential primary this spring. DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, who lags significantly behind Hsieh and Premier Su Tseng-chang in public opinion polls, has aggressively sought support from the party's Deep Green base. Yu's move toward the extreme END has forced all four DPP candidates to move away from the middle to focus on the party's base during the primary. As a result, the four candidates are starting to sound "more and more" the same, particularly when addressing fundamental issues like Taiwan sovereignty. Hsieh suggested that Deep Green supporters, such as members of the Taiwan Society and party elder Koo Kuan-ming, are clearly backing Yu, but realize he does not enjoy enough support in public opinion polls (weighted at 70 percent) to win the party primary. To boost Yu's chances, his supporters have been pushing a proposal to exclude pan-Blue and independent voters from DPP primary public opinion polls, in effect trying to change the rules of the game at the last minute. ¶4. (C) Hsieh predicted that President Chen will still continue to play a "decisive" role in the primary despite his decision to stop mediating among the four DPP presidential candidates. Chen's influence could be critical in determining whether to use public opinion polls that exclude Blue voters in the primary since he controls 3-4 votes in the party's 15 person Central Standing Committee, which should make a decision on the issue later this month. Hsieh assessed that using the filtered polls would most help Yu and most hurt Premier Su, who has broader appeal among independent voters. ¶5. (C) Hsieh suggested that the primary race would likely go down to the wire because, according to his own internal polling, he and Su remain neck-and-neck. Hsieh said his polls also indicate that only a combined Hsieh-Su or Su-Hsieh ticket has a chance of defeating a KMT ticket led by former KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. Hsieh confided to the Director TAIPEI 00000643 002 OF 003 that if he lost to Su in the primary he would be willing to serve as Su's vice presidential running mate. Hsieh was optimistic that a future DPP administration would have a more substantive division of labor between the president and vice president than exists now. Hsieh said that, for example, the future vice president could be in charge of economic policy. Hsieh predicted that, despite lagging in the polls, Vice President Lu will slowly gain support as the primary heats up because of her stature as Vice President and appeal to women and middle class voters. ¶6. (C) Hsieh suggested that once the primary is over in May President Chen's influence will diminish, though he will continue to weigh in on electoral politics, perhaps enjoying as much influence as the DPP presidential candidate. Hsieh told the Director that while Chen cares very much about the Deep Green wing of the party, he will be reasonable and understands that the DPP candidate will need to move toward the middle to appeal to independent and light Blue voters in order to win. Hsieh said that the Deep Green, seeing the disarray within the KMT after KMT Chairman Ma's resignation, underestimates Ma and maybe willing to back a Deep-Green candidate such as Yu out of the belief that any pan-Green challenger can defeat a weakened KMT. Hsieh observed that Ma, despite his legal troubles, is likely to win his party's nomination. Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng's only chance is if a conviction for corruption materializes in time to preclude Ma from running in the presidential race. Taiwan Identity & Ethnic Tensions -------------- ¶7. (C) Hsieh believes Taiwan identity continues to be a sensitive, hot-button issue in Taiwan politics because voters are uncertain about the island's future vis--vis China. Green politicians tend to play upon those fears, especially during election time, to highlight the DPP and KMT's opposing stances on Taiwan's future. Hsieh noted that this is particularly so when the "ethnicity" of the KMT candidate can become an issue in the election even though the next generation of ethnic "mainlanders," including Ma, have all grown up on Taiwan and largely identify with the island. The recent electoral successes of ethnic mainlanders in northern Taiwan have heightened these anxieties among some in Taiwan, contended Hsieh, giving the DPP an opportunity to strike a chord with the 70 percent of the population that identifies itself as ethnic "Taiwanese." DPP Platform & Taiwan Independence -------------- ¶8. (C) Hsieh emphasized to the Director that the DPP's political platform has been very open and positive in its stance toward the PRC. Hsieh noted that in 1999 the party formally changed its stance from advocating Taiwan independence to stating that Taiwan is already an independent, sovereign country that should seek to "normalize" its foreign relations. Hsieh also said that during his tenure as party Chairman (2000-2002) he promoted the policy of "active opening, effective management," which was adopted by the administration but then later reversed by President Chen in 2005 in response to Deep Green concerns. Hsieh charged that the "radicals" within the party who continue to push for Taiwan independence are therefore actually in violation of the party's proclaimed political beliefs. Hsieh said that these fundamentalists are driven by their belief that the DPP needs to take a more confrontational position toward China and can risk creating a more distant relationship with the U.S. One-on-One Discussion -------------- ¶9. (C) During a brief one-on-one with Hsieh at the END of the session, the Director underscored the seriousness with which we view any attempts to alter the status quo across the Taiwan Strait by either side, and in particular recent remarks by President Chen raising questions about his commitment to the "four noes." While our public response was TAIPEI 00000643 003 OF 003 relatively restrained, privately we will be making clear that this could seriously damage bilateral ties if allowed to continue drifting in the direction of direct violation of the "four noes." Anything that touches on sensitive sovereignty issues in the areas of constitutional reform, referenda or attempts to enter the United Nations under the name of Taiwan would constitute such a violation. We admire Taiwan's democratic processes, and understand the domestic factors currently at work as the DPP seeks to enhance its prospects in upcoming legislative and presidential elections. The next couple of months will be closely watched for any signs that Taiwan might be drifting toward long-established "red lines" on cross-strait ties. We have made and will continue to make representations to Beijing on its military buildup and other developments of concern, but Taiwan has direct responsibilities of its own here. How these matters are managed will help to define prospects for U.S.-Taiwan relations in the future, including with Taiwan's next president. The Director wanted Hsieh to understand USG views clearly. He noted he would also make these points in a meeting later that day with Premier Su Tseng-chang. ¶10. (C) Hsieh listened closely to the Director's points and nodded his understanding at several points. He said that maintaining a strong U.S.-Taiwan relationship was very important to Taiwan and emphasized that he understood the importance of not taking provocative steps that jeopardize or undermine that relationship. Hsieh told the Director that in upcoming public primary debates he plans to emphasize the importance of maintaining a good relationship with the U.S. for Taiwan's future prosperity and stability, but noted that given his audience he would have to be careful not to "go too far." Hsieh also stated that should he become president he would also place a strong emphasis on improving ties with Japan, which behind the U.S., is Taiwan's next most important relationship. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Hsieh combines the characteristics of a cosmopolitan thinker and grassroots politician. After Premier Su, he appears to have the next best chance at winning the DPP's presidential nomination. While Hsieh revealed his discomfort with moving away from the political center and being boxed in by the Deep Green base, he appears to see this as a necessary tactical shift to win his party's primary rather than a long-term substantive change to his previous policy stances. YOUNG