ACADEMICS OFFER PERSPECTIVES ON TAIWANESE IDENTITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000616

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/15/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: ACADEMICS OFFER PERSPECTIVES ON TAIWANESE IDENTITY
AND FUTURE CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Four prominent Taiwan political scientists
-- two each from the Blue and Green camps -- told the
Director on March 14 that the growth in Taiwanese identity
over the past decade does not equate to stronger support for
Taiwan independence, which has remained relatively constant
since the late 1990s. They pointed that many people in
Taiwan remain open to a variety of future possibilities
regarding Taiwan's relationship with China. The academics
predicted that Taiwan's next president, whether DPP or KMT,
will be pragmatic and moderate on cross-Strait issues,
especially the development of economic relations. They
suggested that Beijing's willingness to engage Taiwan's newly
elected leadership will be an important factor in the pace of
cross-Strait development. Agreeing that Taiwan needs to
improve its defense capabilities, the academics from both
sides of the color line lamented the fact that the defense
budget has been held hostage to short-term political
interests. End Summary.


2. (U) The Director hosted a lunch on March 14 with four
prominent Taiwan political scientists to discuss Taiwan
politics and democracy. On the Blue side, Chu Yun-han (Ph.D
University of Minnesota) teaches at National Taiwan
University and specializes in Taiwan's democratic
institutions. Chen I-hsin (Ph.D. Columbia University)
teaches American Studies at Tamkang University and is a keen
observer of pan-Blue politics. On the Green side, Wu Nai-teh
(Ph.D. University of Chicago) is a research fellow at
Academia Sinica and an expert on Taiwan national identity.
Hsu Yung-ming (Ph.D. University of Michigan),a research
fellow at Academia Sinica, is a polling expert and pan-Green
political pundit.

National Identity, Taiwan Independence, and Polling
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The four academics agreed that the growth in
Taiwanese identity as reflected in public opinion polls does
not mean stronger support for Taiwan independence. Wu
explained that the percentage of Taiwan's population that
defines itself exclusively as "Chinese" has dropped from 27
percent in 1994 to 6.3 percent in 2004, while the percentage
of those who say they are exclusively "Taiwanese" has grown
from 33 to 45 percent over the same period. Those who
identify themselves as both "Taiwanese and Chinese" has
floated in the 40 percent range. Despite the growth of the
"Taiwanese" identity, the percentage of those who support
independence and oppose unification has flattened out at 29
percent after a substantial increase in the early to
mid-1990s. Those who can accept either independence or
unification under favorable conditions, moreover, has
remained relatively stable and surprisingly high (24 percent)
over the same period.

KMT Politics
--------------


4. (C) The academics agreed that the greatest challenge
faced by the KMT is the rivalry between former KMT Chairman
Ma Ying-jeou and Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng over
the party's 2008 presidential nomination. The KMT is
unlikely to split, however, having learned from its loss in
2000 that two pan-Blue candidates would hand the DPP an
electoral victory. Accordingly, the academics predicted that
party pressure on Ma and Wang to compromise will increase
over the coming weeks. Although acknowledging that Ma's
legal problems have weakened his position, Chen argued that
Ma remains the KMT's only hope as Wang is not strong enough
to defeat the DPP. Chen observed that Wang might be
interested in a future premiership or be willing to become
Ma's vice presidential running mate. Hsu, however, suggested
that Wang's best option may be to remain LY Speaker where he
could continue to wield considerable influence and remain
relatively independent of Ma if Ma were to win the presidency
in 2008.

DPP Politics

TAIPEI 00000616 002 OF 002


--------------


5. (C) Given Ma's problems and the KMT's internal troubles
of late, Hsu predicted that the DPP has a good chance of
winning the presidential race, but he conceded that the KMT
would likely maintain control over the legislature. Most of
the academics agreed that a joint ticket between Premier Su
Tseng-chang and former Premier Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) would

SIPDIS
pose the greatest challenge to Ma Ying-jeou. Such a ticket
will be difficult to form, however, because Su and Hsieh are
neck-and-neck in public opinion polls and neither will want
to play second fiddle. Hsu noted that DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun has been strongly backing constitutional reform,
renouncing the "four noes" pledge, and pushing name
rectification to win support from the Deep Green. The
academics pointed out that during the party's presidential
primary President Chen will be balancing between the need to
back a winner and the desire to ensure his own continued
influence after 2008. Wu suggested that Frank Hsieh, a
previous rival to Chen within the party, would likely stake
out more independent policies and distance himself from the
President's controversial stances on independence and
cross-Strait issues.

Defense Budget and Constitutional Reform
--------------


6. (C) The Director emphasized the need for Taiwan to
improve its self-defense capabilities in the face of the
ongoing rapid modernization of the PRC military. Agreeing
with the Director that Taiwan needs to improve its defense,
the academics noted that proposed increases to the defense
budget have been held hostage to political manipulation by
both sides. Most recently, the pan-Blue camp has been
holding up passage of the annual budget to pressure the DPP
into accepting a bill that would give the Blues control of
the Central Election Commission. The DPP, for its part, is
blaming pan-Blue obstructionism for failure to pass the
defense budget. Chu suggested that Ma, especially since he
is no longer KMT Chairman, may lack the clout to influence
the KMT LY caucus. Chu said he had heard reports that
Speaker Wang might be pulling punches on the CEC bill to
maintain leverage over Ma Ying-jeou.

Post-2008 Cross-Strait Developments
--------------


7. (C) The academics predicted that cross-Strait economic
relations after 2008 will continue to improve under a new
president, who, whether from the KMT or DPP, is likely to be
more pragmatic and moderate than Chen Shui-bian. The pace of
development will depend on Beijing's willingness to engage
and show policy flexibility toward Taiwan's newly elected
leaders. Chu suggested that Ma might accelerate the pace of
opening, but the difference between him and Frank Hsieh or Su
Tseng-chang would be one of degree rather than direction.

SIPDIS
Chen, further, argued that the KMT has a history of caution
and conservatism and, moreover, Ma would be under strong
pressure from the DPP. Therefore, absent strongly positive
PRC overtures, Ma would likely move slowly on expanding
cross-Strait relations.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Our discussion with the academics suggests that, not
surprisingly, presidential and legislative election politics
will consume Taiwan over the coming year. Although
increasing Taiwanese identity does not translate directly
into support for independence, the DPP is likely to push
identity politics and independence-related themes in the
presidential campaign in hopes of pressuring and weakening
the KMT, especially Ma Ying-jeou.
YOUNG