HSIEH AND SU THE FRONTRUNNERS IN FOUR-WAY RACE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000533

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: HSIEH AND SU THE FRONTRUNNERS IN FOUR-WAY RACE FOR
DPP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Premier Su Tseng-chang, former Premier Frank
Hsieh, Vice President Annette Lu, and DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun have all formally joined the race for the DPP
presidential nomination as long expected. The DPP hopes to
select a single candidate through a month-long process of
consultations led by President Chen. Because the two
strongest candidates -- Hsieh and Su -- appear to be running
neck and neck, this process may be difficult. If
consultations do not produce a consensus candidate, the party
will hold a presidential primary in May to determine who will
face the Kuomintang candidate, expected to be Ma Ying-jeou,
in the 2008 presidential election. End Summary.


2. (C) On March 6, Vice President Annette Lu (Hsiu-lien)
became the first candidate to register for the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) presidential primary. Three other
candidates registered on March 8: DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun,
Premier Su Tseng-chang, and former Premier Frank Hsieh
(Chang-ting). All four candidates, the so-called "four great
kings of heaven," have been preparing to run for president
for the past year or more. Registration for the DPP primary
closes on Friday, March 9, and it does not appear there will
be any other candidates beyond the four who have already
registered. AIT's contacts agree that Frank Hsieh and Su
Tseng-chang are by far the strongest of the four DPP

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candidates.

Two Front-runners: Frank Hsieh . . .
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3. (C) The four candidates all have deep roots in the DPP
and share similar professional resumes, all having served as
either elected county magistrate or city mayor and as an
elected member of the Legislative Yuan (LY) or Provincial
Assembly. Su, Hsieh, and Yu have also all served as Premier
and DPP Chairman. Despite such similarities, there are also
significant differences among the candidates. Only Hsieh and
Lu have significant international experience, both having
studied law overseas, Hsieh at Kyoto University and Lu at
Harvard. Hsieh is known for his broad political vision and
skill in debating. Unlike the other three candidates, Hsieh
has long been a heavyweight in DPP leadership politics and
Chen Shui-bian's most important rival. A master networker,
Hsieh enjoys broad support in the DPP, including from the
Deep Green, despite his relatively moderate positions on
cross-Strait issues and relations with the opposition. He
also maintains good relations with important figures outside
the party, including former President Lee Teng-hui. Hsieh's
relations with the reformist New Tide faction are strained,
however; he blames the New Tide for having betrayed him in
the past. A coterie of legislators who are highly loyal to
Hsieh provide an important force in his campaign team.

. . . and Su Tseng-chang
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4. (C) Compared to Hsieh, Su Tseng-chang is more of a policy
implementer than a thinker and has been one of the DPP's more
effective Premiers. Hard working and demanding, Su has shown
no compunction in publicly dressing down, or even firing,
senior officials for poor performance. With the public, Su
comes across as modest and congenial and having a strong
sense of values, all of which have contributed to his
popularity. Although lacking the polish and networking
skills of a Frank Hsieh, Su has strong grassroots appeal and
is a powerful political campaigner. Deep Green
fundamentalists remain suspicious of Su for several reasons,
including his close relations to the reformist New Tide
faction, his support for increased cross-Strait economic
relations, alleged disloyalty to President Chen, and his
moderation and lack of pro-independence rhetoric. Su is
working to improve his standing with the Deep Green, for
example, by replacing China with Taiwan in the names of
government-controlled entities.

Two Also-ran's: Annette Lu . . .
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5. (C) Annette Lu, who has always been regarded as an
outsider, a loner, and a "loose cannon," does not have a
strong support base in the party. AIT's contacts regard Lu
as unpredictable, lacking leadership capabilities, and having
only vague and impractical ideas. For the past seven years,
President Chen has kept Lu at arms length and out of the
policy decision making process. Lu, who has established her
own support organizations, does enjoy a measure of popularity
with the general public, which she has been trying to expand
through television interviews and other public activities.


. . . and Yu Shyi-kun
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6. (C) Yu Shyi-kun, the weakest of the four candidates
despite his close association with President Chen, has
adopted a tough pro-independence line since becoming DPP
Chairman last year, hoping to win Deep Green support.
Responding to President Chen's new "four wants and one no"
formulation, Yu has announced that he will renounce Chen's
"five no's" commitments to the U.S. if elected president.
Despite his efforts, however, Yu has not succeeded in winning
support from the Deep Green, who view Yu as a lightweight
compared to other candidates, especially Frank Hsieh. Yu
has, however, managed to turn DPP reformers solidly against
him, because Yu has done nothing to stop a series of harsh
Deep Green attacks on the reformers. Yu is taking a leave of
absence while he runs for the presidential nomination;
legislator Trong Chai will serve as acting chairman.

Su Versus Hsieh
--------------


7. (C) In the contest between Su Tseng-chang and Frank
Hsieh, Su enjoys an advantage in support from the general
public, while Hsieh has stronger support within the DPP. The
Premiership gives Su the additional advantage of having a
regular platform. Hsieh has boosted his popularity with a
relatively strong showing in the Taipei mayoral election last
December, and he is working to stay in the public eye through
frequent public appearances. According to public opinion
polling commissioned by Frank Hsieh, Hsieh and Su are running
approximately even. Hsieh's polling also shows that a ticket
of Hsieh and Su or Su and Hsieh beats probable Kuomintang
(KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou.

Hoping to Avoid an Open Primary Battle
--------------


8. (C) Following candidate registration, the DPP enters a
month-long consultation process, hoping the four candidates
will reach agreement on who among them should represent the
party against the KMT in the 2008 presidential election. Two
main tools in this process are confidential polling to show
how each candidate stacks up against the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou
and lobbying efforts led by President Chen. During this
period there may also be televised public debates among the
candidates. If the DPP can select a candidate through the
consultation process, that will avoid a potentially bitter
primary battle that could open dificult-to-heal wounds before
the presidential campaign and damage the party's chances in
the presidential election. The very narrow gap between Hsieh
and Su will likely make it difficult to reach a brokered
arrangement. President Chen's initial consultation efforts,
aimed at reducing the field, have not been successful. Frank
Hsieh turned down Chen's request to accept Yu Shyi-kun as his
running mate because Hsieh's polling showed that adding Yu to
his ticket would cost rather than add votes.


9. (C) Presidential Office Secretary General Chiou I-jen
recently told the Director that Chen Shui-bian's sole
criterion in mediating this contest is to pick the candidate
most likely to win. But he could be tempted to privately
negotiate between Hsieh and Su over both ideology and --
perhaps more importantly -- which one of these two
frontrunners is most likely to spare Chen a criminal
investigation and possible jail time following his stepping
down in May, 2008.

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10. (C) If the consultations are unsuccessful, the DPP will
hold a formal primary contest. This will include a vote by
party members on May 6, which is weighted 30 percent, and
public opinion polls conducted during the period May 7-28,
which are weighted 70 percent. The DPP will officially name
its presidential candidate on May 30.

YOUNG