PRESIDENT CHEN VOICES SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000507 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2032 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN VOICES SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE IN FAPA ANNIVERSARY SPEECH Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian on Sunday evening, March 4, told FAPA members celebrating their organization's 25th anniversary that Taiwan wants independence, name changes, a new constitution, and economic development and that there are "no differences over left and right policy lines", only over independence versus unification. The only concrete initiative Chen referred to in explaining his "four wants and one no" doctrine was repetition of his plan to apply to join the UN under the name Taiwan rather than ROC. Chen's latest rhetoric seems partly to have been a defense against harsh criticisms levied against him by former President Lee Teng-hui earlier the same day. Reactions to Chen's speech have fallen predictably along party lines. While independence fundamentalists are pleased with Chen's support for their cause, some moderate DPP politicians have either tried to downplay Chen's comments as nothing new or as a factor complicating efforts to pursue pragmatic politics. Some pan-Blue politicians have charged Chen with playing election politics in ways that risk damaging RELATIONS with the U.S. and raising tensions with the PRC. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In a brief address at a dinner on March 4 celebrating the 25th anniversary of the founding of the U.S.-based Formosan Association of Public Affairs (FAPA),President Chen Shui-bian declared that Taiwan wants to be independent, to rectify names (replacing China with Taiwan in businesses, postage stamps, etc.),to have a new constitution, and to develop economically. Chen also said there is only a problem of national identity or independence versus unification. There is no problem of "left and right" policy lines, by which Chen meant he, as much as Lee Teng-hui, supported social welfare policies. After explaining his views in Taiwanese, Chen repeated "the four wants and one no" in Mandarin, presumably with the television news soundbite factor in mind. As would be expected, Chen received enthusiastic applause from the pro-independence FAPA audience. (Note: Some local newspapers are calling Chen's new statement the "four yeses and one no." This highlights the common perception here that there must be some connection between Chen's latest statement and the "four no's and one have not" commitment he made in 2000 and reiterated in 2004 and 2006. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Chen explained to the FAPA audience, "Taiwan is a country sovereign and independent of the PRC. Pursuing independence is the common ideal of the Taiwanese people and a long-established goal. Pursuing Taiwan independence is not a dangerous step backward, but the highest aspiration." On name change, Chen argued that "Taiwan" is the best name to use in joining the UN and other international organizations. Chen also said Taiwan needs a "timely, fitting, and effective" new Taiwan constitution to become a "normal and complete country." According to Chen, people should not worry about the high thresholds required to constitutional revisions but push ahead with common purpose and one day "we definitely will succeed." ¶4. (C) Chen's statement at the FAPA dinner seems to have been intended for POLITICAL effect as he did not announce any new policy plans. Other than suggesting he would press ahead with his initiative to apply to join the UN under the name "Taiwan' rather than "Republic of China," Chen did not discuss any concrete steps he intended to take. Chen often tailors his pro-indpendence messages to his audience. For example, in August 2002 he first declared his "one country on each side (of the Taiwan Strait)" doctrine during a video conference presentation to the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI) meeting in Japan. ¶5. (C) In making his Sunday statement, Chen probably was also reacting to strong criticisms levied against him by former President Lee Teng-hui during an address to a joint FAPA-Taiwan Advocates conference earlier the same day. Lee accused Chen of "governing by slogans," i.e., not fulfilling the goals set out in his POLITICAL speeches on issues such as constitutional revision. In addition, according to Lee, Chen's single constitutional change was a step backward, not TAIPEI 00000507 002 OF 002 forward because it established an extraordinarily high threshold for future constitutional revision. Lee also charged Chen with including the "five no's" in his 2000 inaugural address because he was "scared to death of the U.S.," the result being that Chen could not make progress on constitutional revision. ¶6. (C) Although independence fundamentalists have strongly endorsed Chen's latest statement, some moderate DPP figures have tried to downplay its significance. An unnamed Presidential Office official told the United Daily News that Chen's statement meant Taiwan wants to maintain its current independent status quo, which he said was consistent with previous ideas and did not violate the "five no's." The official said he did not know Chen planned to make this statement but he believed the content should not raise U.S. worries. One reformist DPP legislator suggested that it was inappropriate for Chen to make such a statement as he approached his final year in office, shortly before the party selected a presidential candidate and just as the LY caucus was trying to deal with the stalled 2007 budget bill. LY member Bikhim Hsiao suggested that Chen's statement should not be viewed as provocative because the DPP's position since 1999 has been that Taiwan is already a sovereign, independent country. She recommended that the government issue a clarification to prevent possible misunderstandings. ¶7. (C) Kuomintang (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) legislators and officials charged Chen with election campaign gimmickry, one even suggesting that Chen was high on "election amphetamines." They also suggested Chen was tailoring his message to his pro-independence base, that he was engaging in a polemic with Lee Teng-hui, and that it was unclear whether he was announcing new policies or voicing empty rhetoric. KMT legislator Su Chi predicted that Chen will pursue a Taiwan independence hard line this year and that the 2007-2008 elections will be a battle between independence and anti-independence forces, including manipulation of the ethnic issue. Chen's hard line will drag down the U.S. and China, increasing the possibility of conflict with the PRC, Su argued. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Stung by Lee Teng-hui's criticisms and facing an audience of independence fundamentalists, Chen chose this occasion to offer a spirited defense and try to consolidate his support from Taiwan independence fundamentalists. The political atmosphere in Taiwan is heating up as we enter a year of key legislative and presidential elections. Chen and Lee are competing to win support from the same body of Deep Green fundamentalists, which explains some of the bitterness of their dispute. Over the coming months, we will need to be prepared for further strong rhetoric from Chen and other politicians. Although Chen's statement to FAPA on Sunday contained some stronger than usual rhetoric, he did not signal a basic change in cross-Strait policy or a repudiation of his four no's commitments, though his critics are arguing that is the practical result of this speech. YOUNG