TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY - SOARING PROFITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000407 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/TC COMMERCE FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER USTR FOR STRATFORD, ALTBACH E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017 TAGS: ECON EINV ETTC TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY - SOARING PROFITS AND CONFIDENCE REF: A. TAIPEI 244 ¶B. TAIPEI 25 ¶C. 06 TAIPEI 4164 ¶D. 06 TAIPEI 4095 ¶E. 06 TAIPEI 4029 Classified By: AIT Economic Section Chief Daniel K. Moore, Reason 1.4 d ¶1. (U) Summary: Taiwan's semiconductor industry showed strong growth in 2006 at 23 percent overall. The top producers of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) averaged growth of 74 percent. Taiwan may overtake South Korea as the largest supplier of DRAM this year. Taiwan contract chip manufacturers or "foundries" continued to dominate the world market and grew 18 percent. The threat of PRC foundries appears much diminished compared to dire predictions a few years ago. Taiwan's semiconductor packaging and testing industries grew 23 and 39 percent, respectively. Integrated circuit (IC) design firms lagged slightly behind the rest of the industry in Taiwan but still had respectable growth of 10 percent. The impressive results show that Taiwan firms are still highly competitive and can continue to grow through further investment in Taiwan. End summary. 2006 - A Good Year for Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Taiwan's semiconductor industry showed strong growth in 2006 as the island consolidated its role as a key player in the global semiconductor industry. The industry rebounded from relatively sluggish growth in ¶2005. According to Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) estimates from November 2006, the industry was headed to achieve overall growth of 23 percent in 2006 with total output worth NT$1.4 trillion (US$42 billion) up from NT$1.1 trillion a year earlier. All segments saw substantial growth. This reversed relatively sluggish growth in 2005 of just 1.7 percent, with a decline of 5.9 percent for the semiconductor manufacturing segment. DRAM - Expanding and Challenging Korean Giants -------------- - ¶3. (U) The stars of Taiwan's semiconductor industry in 2006 were the island's dynamic random access memory (DRAM) producers. According to data from Taiwan's quasi- governmental Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI),revenue for Taiwan's top four DRAM makers rose 74 percent. ProMOS, the third largest, more than doubled its 2005 revenue, growing by 103 percent. Powerchip, the island's largest DRAM maker, grew by 79 percent and is near to overtaking United Mircroelectronics Corporation (UMC) as Taiwan's second largest semiconductor company. Together Taiwan's DRAM producers are the world's second largest supplier of DRAM chips. ITRI estimated Taiwan's 2005 global market share at 22 percent. South Korea is the largest with Samsung and Hynix, the world's top DRAM makers. Some analysts believe that Taiwan could overtake South Korea sometime in 2007. Profits for the top four Taiwan DRAM makers have been forecast to grow by more than 40 percent this year. January and February have seen a sharp drop in DRAM prices this year of approximately 30 percent, but many analysts expect the industry to do well due to the release of Microsoft's Vista operating system, which requires more memory. ¶4. (U) Taiwan's rapid growth in DRAM production has been realized through massive investment in 12-wafer DRAM manufacturing facilities (or "fabs"). Despite construction costs of up to US$3 billion each, 12-inch fabs are more cost-effective producers of semiconductor chips than less advanced 8-inch fabs. Powerchip operates three 12-inch fabs, tied with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation for the most 12-inch fabs on TAIPEI 00000407 002 OF 004 the island. It has four more fabs planned as part of a joint venture with Japan's Elpida Memory Inc in Taichung's Central Taiwan Science Park and possibly two more for its own use at Hsinchu Science Park (ref A). ProMOS currently has two operational 12-inch fabs with two more planned in Taichung. According to Powerchip, Taiwan already controls 40 percent of 12-inch wafer DRAM output, compared to South Korea's 30 percent. ¶5. (U) Taiwan DRAM firms are also preparing to expand production to Mainland China as well. Taiwan regulators approved in December 2006 long-pending applications by Powerchip and ProMOS to build fabs in the PRC (ref C). ProMOS has indicated that it will build a fab in Chongqing. The Chongqing municipal government has reportedly agreed to invest US$200 million into construction of the fab. ProMOS does not plan to produce DRAM at the Chongqing facility but instead will make power management and display chips for cellular phones (ref E). Powerchip's plans do not appear to be as far advanced as ProMOS's. Foundries - TSMC and UMC Going Strong, SMIC Not So Scary -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Taiwan's semiconductor contract chip makers or "foundries" consolidated their dominance of the global market in 2006 despite dire predictions earlier that PRC foundries would eat into their market share. Foundries do not market their own semiconductor chips but instead produce them for other semiconductor companies, most of which lack manufacturing facilities of their own. Revenue for Taiwan foundries grew by 18 percent in 2006 after declining by 6.3 percent in 2005. The industry leaders had impressive earnings too. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC),the world's largest foundry, earned profits of US$3.8 billion in 2006. UMC, number two in the world, earned almost US$980 million. Taiwan foundries were able to preserve their global market share of approximately 70 percent. ¶7. (C) Until recently, many observers speculated that PRC foundries, especially Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC),would begin to erode market share and profitability of Taiwan firms. However, that threat appears to have faded. SMIC has vied in recent years for the position of third largest foundry with Singapore's Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing but has been unable to overtake UMC. UMC Vice President for Corporate Marketing Lee Chung told AIT recently that SMIC has been good at getting recognition but has fallen further behind the last few years, especially in production of advanced chips with feature size of 90 nanometers. According to TSIA President T.Y. Wu, SMIC is good at building factories but that just takes money. TSMC and UMC can still beat SMIC on quality, technology SIPDIS and efficiency, he said. However, Wu also noted that by adding capacity and lowering prices, SMIC has had a more damaging effect on UMC than industry leader TSMC. TSMC Public Relations Principal Specialist Michael Kramer commented to AIT that his firm sees cooperation between Chartered and IBM as more of threat than SMIC. ¶8. (C) After Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs announced in December 2006 that it would accept applications from Taiwan semiconductor manufacturers to build factories using 0.18-micron technology (ref B), TSMC indicated that it would upgrade its facilities in SIPDIS Songjiang, China, to use the more advanced technology soon. Until now, Taiwan fabs in Mainland China have been limited to 0.25-micron technology. TSMC is the only Taiwan firm with an approved operational fab in China. UMC's Chung told us that his firm is no closer to resolution of its legal difficulties regarding its relationship and alleged investment in Hejian Technology, another PRC foundry. He complained that personnel TAIPEI 00000407 003 OF 004 changes at Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission have delayed the case. Packaging and Testing - Rising and Surprising -------------- ¶9. (U) It was also a good year for Taiwan's semiconductor packaging and testing firms, which take wafers produced mainly by Taiwan's foundries, cut them into individual chips and package them into integrated circuits (ICs). Taiwan's packaging segment grew by 23 percent in 2006. Revenue for testing was up 39 percent. Taiwan has the world's first and third largest packaging and testing firms in Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE) and Siliconware Precision Industries Ltd. (SPIL). They may have benefited in 2006 from financial difficulties for their main rival, U.S. firm Amkor. Analysts have commented that Amkor's financial situation may make it difficult for the firm to keep up with expansion in the industry. ¶10. (U) ASE has been the focus of much attention in the industry with the November announcement that U.S. equity investment firm Carlyle Group plans to buy 100 percent of the Taiwan firm (ref D). The deal sparked controversy because some observers argued that it was an attempt by ASE to escape Taiwan's restrictions on investment in the PRC. Others pointed out that ASE's investment in the PRC was not yet close to Taiwan's capital limits. Many were also concerned that Carlyle's likely plan to delist ASE from the Taiwan Stock Exchange would lead to similar deals for other firms and more delistings. However, the deal now appears to be in jeopardy. On February 15, ASE announced that Carlyle had terminated its exclusive deal with ASE Chairman Jason Chang. The firm is now free to consider other options. IC Design - Lagging but Still Competitive -------------- ¶11. (U) Taiwan's IC design firms lagged behind the rest of the industry last year. IC design firms, which design and market integrated circuits but hire foundries for the manufacturing process, grew by 10 percent in 2006. Taiwan's IC design firms have the second highest market share among "fabless" firms, which contract out all manufacturing. They claim approximately 20 percent of the global market, well behind North America with more than 70 percent. ¶12. (C) Taiwan IC design firms may face a greater threat from PRC competition than other segments of the industry. TSIA's Wu told us that PRC design firms have the SIPDIS potential to catch up quickly because even a small firm can develop a killer application. Firms in Mainland China, he pointed out, have no lack of resources and skill; in addition, they benefit from better access to the PRC market and locally-developed standards. He noted the recent success of Zhuhai Actions Semiconductor, which reportedly grew by 174 percent in 2005. UMC's Chung, however, was less impressed by growth of China's IC design industry, commenting that Chinese firms were still using technology two to three generations behind the most advanced. Comment - Still a World Power in Semiconductors -------------- -- ¶13. (U) The notable performance turned in by Taiwan's semiconductor industry in 2006 sends a message to its competitors in South Korea, China and elsewhere that it is still a force to be reckoned with. Growth was achieved largely through investment and expansion in Taiwan, illustrating that the island's most successful and advanced firms still believe that Taiwan is a good place to do business. TAIPEI 00000407 004 OF 004 YOUNG