LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: KMT HOPES FOR BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002656 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: KMT HOPES FOR BIG WIN IN HAKKA-MAJORITY NORTHWESTERN TAIWAN Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With two weeks to go before the Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, the KMT appears likely to win at least 7 and probably more of the 10 seats in the three counties and one city of Blue stronghold northwestern Taiwan. Traditionally, the KMT receives strong support from ethnic Hakkas, who are heavily concentrated in this region. DPP candidates are competitive only in four districts, including two coastal districts where there are large numbers of ethnic Taiwanese. The DPP hopes to eke out a small number of victories in this region to reduce the gap in the expected overall KMT victory in the January 12 LY elections. Two or three seats would be considered a strong showing for the DPP. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) This cable, one of a series of regional reports in the run-up to the January 12 legislative elections, includes information from meetings with party officials, local candidates, and media reports. Paras 3-4 discuss the northwestern region of Taiwan as a whole. Paras 5-8 provide general capsules on each county and city, followed by details on the individual district contests in the two counties where more than one seat is at stake. Northwestern Taiwan: A Longtime Blue Stronghold -------------- -- ¶3. (C) With just over two weeks before voters in Taiwan head to the polls to choose the next legislature, the KMT is hoping to build on strong support from ethnic Hakka voters in northwestern Taiwan to win a decisive majority of the 10 seats up for grabs in the newly drawn election districts. Northwestern Taiwan comprises Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli Counties and Hsinchu City. Close to Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu have thriving economies with strong high-tech industrial sectors. By contrast, the largely rural and agricultural Miaoli is one of Taiwan's poorest counties. ¶4. (C) One defining characteristic of the region is its large Hakka population, which exceeds 80 percent in broad swathes of the inland, more mountainous areas. Hakka account for 41 percent of the population in Taoyuan County, 70 percent in Hsinchu County, 30 percent in Hsinchu City, and 67 percent in Miaoli County. The DPP draws its support in these four districts mainly from Taiwanese (Hoklo) voters. ;Historic rivalries and cultural/linguistic differences between the Hakka and Taiwanese have enabled the KMT to traditionally count on strong support from the Hakka. The pan-Blue camp has parlayed Hakka support into electoral success, winning 16 of the 23 seats in the region in the 2004 legislative elections, and winning all four of the county magistrate and mayoral races in 2005. The DPP hopes to chip away at the KMT advantage in the region by mobilizing Taiwanese voters and increasing its support from Hakka communities through stepped up grassroots work. While most inland areas are considered "safe" KMT districts, DPP candidates are viable contenders in the coastal areas that have higher concentrations of ethnic Taiwanese. Taoyuan County (6 Seats): KMT Hopes for Big Win -------------- -- ¶5. (C) With just under 2 million residents, Taoyuan County is Taiwan's third largest administrative district, and its 6 legislative seats rank third after Taipei county (12 seats) and Taipei city (8 seats) in the new single-member district electoral system. In previous LY elections, the pan-Blue camp has enjoyed a strong advantage over the pan-Greens, winning 8 of 13 seats in 2001 and 9 of 13 in 2004. The pan-Blue ticket captured 55 percent of the vote in the 2004 presidential election, while President Chen Shui-bian won 45 percent. According to DPP supporters, the Blue-Green split in the county has shrunk slightly in recent years, narrowing from 65-35 to 60-40. The more competitive races are in districts closer to the coast, while the two most inland districts (5 and 6) are considered safe KMT territory. TAIPEI 00002656 002 OF 003 Details on Taoyuan County Contests: -------------- -- District 1, which has a strong Blue majority, pits DPP incumbent Lee Chen-nan against KMT incumbent Chen Ken-te. Both candidates started their political careers in the county council before launching successful bids for LY seats. In the 2004 LY elections, pan-Blue candidates won 56 percent of the local vote and pan-Green candidates won 42 percent. However, DPP officials contend the current gap between Chen and Lee is small. -- District 2, which is on the coast, is the only Green majority electoral district in Taoyuan County. DPP and KMT local officials agree that DPP incumbent legislator Kuo Jung-Tsung currently leads KMT candidate Liao Cheng-ching. A local KMT official said Liao, drafted only a few months ago to run in the district after losing in the party primary in district 5, is catching up and hopes to win votes from the Hakka community due to his Hakka ethnicity. -- District 3 is another electoral district where the DPP has a fighting chance to win a seat. The race between DPP incumbent Peng Tien-fu and KMT incumbent Wu Chih-yang is being closely watched across the island because Wu is the son of KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung. Although Wu Chih-yang has strong name recognition and is Hakka, he lacks the deep local connections of his DPP rival, as the Wu family has long resided in Taipei due to Wu Poh-hsiung's career in the KMT leadership. By contrast, Peng has strong personal connections and grassroots support, having been active in political circles in the county for 20 years. -- District 4 is a contest between two incumbent legislators: Huang Tsung-yuan of the DPP and the KMT's Yang Li-huan. The local county chairmen from both parties said Yang is currently in the lead, but the DPP chair added Huang has recently narrowed the gap. Huang joined the DPP after being expelled from the Taiwan Solidarity Union in October. -- District 5, with a large Blue majority, is expected to go to 6-time incumbent KMT legislator Chu Feng-chih. Local DPP chair suggested that playing up ethnic divisions might boost DPP candidate Lee Yueh-chin's chances against Chu, whose parents are from the mainland. -- District 6 will likely be an easy victory for KMT legislator Sun Ta-chien. The DPP nominated former PFP legislator Chiu Chuang-liang to contest Sun's bid, but Chiu's repeated changes of party affiliation have alienated many voters. Hsinchu City (1 Seat): Seat Likely to Go to KMT -------------- -- ¶6. (C) Hsinchu City is a Blue majority district where veteran KMT legislator Lu Hsueh-chang is expected to defeat DPP newcomer Chung Hung-huei. One reason for the longtime Blue advantage in Hsinchu City is the high concentration of traditionally Blue-stronghold military communities. DPP and KMT officials agreed that Lu -- formerly of the People First Party (PFP) -- maintains a healthy lead over Chung, which the DPP put at 10 percent. A telling sign of the KMT advantage in Hsinchu is that DPP heavyweight and legislative caucus whip Ker Chien-ming, who held one of the city's three seats under the former multiple member system, has chosen to run as a party list candidate rather than trying to compete for the city's single seat under the new election format. Hsinchu County (1 Seat): DPP Hoping for a Split Vote -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Roughly 70 percent of Hsinchu County's population of 490,000 is Hakka, and Blue supporters outnumber Green supporters by nearly a 2-1 margin. Three candidates are contesting the county's lone seat. Local KMT officials predict that incumbent legislator Chiu Ching-chun will win more than half the vote. The DPP is not fielding a candidate, who would have little chance of winning this TAIPEI 00002656 003 OF 003 heavily Blue district. Instead, the DPP is backing Hakka Party candidate Yu Yu-chih, hoping Yu can win if independent candidate Hsu Hsin-ying is able to draw enough Blue votes away from Chiu. Miaoli County (2 Seats): DPP Could Take One Seat -------------- --- ¶8. (C) Miaoli is the least developed county in the region, and its economy is dominated by agriculture and tourism. With a population of 560,000, Miaoli is divided into two districts. District 1 along the coast is dominated by ethnic Taiwanese; this is where the DPP has a chance of winning. District 2 covers the inland, more mountainous areas and has one of the highest concentrations of Hakkas in Taiwan. Details on Miaoli Races: -------------- -- District 1, with a high proportion of ethnic Taiwanese residents, represents one of the DPP's best chances for winning an LY seat in the region. The local DPP chairman told AIT that DPP candidate Du Wen-ching currently enjoys a 10 percent lead according to internal polling, and a KMT official confirmed that KMT candidate Li I-ting is trailing. A two-time incumbent, Du enjoys the support of several local factions, which have long played an important role in elections in Miaoli. In past elections, however, voters in the district have generally favored pan-Blue candidates. -- District 2, with a two-thirds Blue majority, is a contest between two KMT candidates, Ho Chih-hui and Hsu Yao-chang. The KMT Miaoli secretary general said that although efforts to unify the party behind a single candidate have been unsuccessful, he was confident one of the two would win due to the high concentration of Hakkas in the district. The local DPP chairman said the party hoped to take advantage of a split in the Blue vote, but admitted that internal party polling put support for DPP candidate Chan Yun-si at only 10 percent, well behind the two KMT contenders. YOUNG