LY ELECTION PREVIEW: THE BATTLE FOR CENTRAL TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 002617

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: THE BATTLE FOR CENTRAL TAIWAN

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Central Taiwan, a swing region between the
Blue north and the Green south, is shaping up as the key
battleground in the KMT-DPP competition for seats in the
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections on January 12, 2008.
Although the KMT enjoys an overall advantage, controlling
four of the five local governments and having stronger
grassroots organizations, only 2-3 of the 16 LY seats in
central Taiwan are considered "safe" for KMT candidates.
With a KMT-allied but independent incumbent likely to win
another district, DPP and KMT candidates are competing
intensely to win the remaining 12-13 contested races. The
results in central Taiwan will affect the magnitude of the
KMT's expected overall victory in the upcoming LY elections.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) This cable, one of a series of regional reports in
the run-up to the January 12 legislative elections, includes
information from meetings with party officials, legislators,
and academics. Paras 3-6 discuss Central Taiwan as a whole.
Paras 6-11 provide general capsules on each county and city,
followed by details on the individual district contests.


3. (C) With just under four weeks to go before the
election, the KMT retains a modest overall advantage in the
legislative races in central Taiwan. The pan-Blue camp has
been able to resolve most internal disputes between
candidates who won their primaries and losers who had
threatened to split the Blue vote by running as independents
in some districts. Many legislative races in central Taiwan,
unlike the Blue-leaning north and Green-majority south, are
likely to remain in play right up to election day on January

12.

Key Blue-Green Battleground...
--------------


4. (C) With over 5 million residents, a quarter of Taiwan's
total population, and 16 of the 73 LY district seats in
Taiwan's new electoral system, central Taiwan will be a
pivotal battleground in the legislative elections on January

12. Central Taiwan encompasses Taichung City and the
Counties of Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, and Yunlin. These
areas range economically from one of Taiwan's most prosperous
and fastest growing cities, Taichung, to the island's poorest
rural county, Yunlin. Traditionally, the Kuomintang
(KMT)-led pan Blue has enjoyed greater support than the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and its allies in the
region, winning a majority of legislative seats in 2004 and
four of the five county magistrate and mayoral races in 2005.
The pan-Blue presidential ticket of Lien Chan (KMT) and
James Soong (PFP),however, lost the region to President Chen
in 2004 by over 100,000 votes, and central Taiwan is expected
to be a crucial battleground in both the January LY elections
and the presidential election on March 22.

...Is Largely Up For Grabs
--------------


5. (C) In the upcoming LY elections, the KMT has the upper
hand in the more populous northern Taiwan (31 seats),while
the DPP has an advantage in the less populous south (20
seats). Both parties view central Taiwan (16 seats),a
contested swing region, as key to their showing in the
upcoming LY elections, the KMT hoping to score a major
victory over the DPP, and the DPP hoping to minimize its
expected overall losses.


6. (C) Support for the two camps is split relatively evenly
in the city and counties of central Taiwan, and a majority of
the legislative races are likely to go down to the wire.
Taichung County KMT Legislator Hsu Chung-hsiung told AIT that
the party's traditional organizational advantage does not
guarantee that KMT candidates can win the one-on-one races
prescribed by the new single-member district electoral
system. At the local level, individual support bases and
personal appeal and image will be more important than party
affiliation or organizational backing, Hsu explained. As a
result, Hsu cautioned that the KMT has to battle to retain at

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least a modest majority of legislative seats in this region.
Anything less would be a "significant blow" to his party, Hsu
stressed. He also pointed out that defeated LY candidates
would be less active in mobilizing grassroots support for KMT
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, hurting Ma's electoral
prospects.

Taichung City (3): KMT Facing Trouble in Blue Stronghold
-------------- --------------


7. (C) With over 1 million inhabitants, Taichung is
Taiwan's third most populous city and is divided into three
legislative districts. The popularity of KMT mayor Jason Hu
and an urban Blue-leaning electorate is widely thought to
give KMT candidates an advantage over their DPP competitors.
KMT Taichung City Secretary-General Hung Jung-chang told AIT,
however, that despite the Blue majority in two of the three
districts, KMT candidates remain at risk in two districts.
Hung explained that the pan-Green has fielded strong
candidates in all three districts and a former People First
Party (PFP) candidate, running as an independent in District
2, threatens to split the pan-Blue vote there. According to
Hsu Chung-hsiung, Mayor Jason Hu has made little effort to
iron out intra-KMT and pan-Blue conflicts, which are largely
driven by personal grudges.

Details on Taichung City Contests:
--------------

--District 1 is a Blue-leaning district where Tsai Chin-lung,
deputy secretary-general of the KMT legislative caucus,
enjoys the advantage of combining a national reputation with
stronger grassroots support than the DPP's Michael Tsai
(Ming-hsien),former Legislator and former Vice Minister of
Defense. DPP internal polls in November, however, showed
their candidate lagging behind the KMT by only 3 percentage
points, making for a close race.

--District 2 is a strong Blue district where the KMT and PFP
have failed in negotiations to field a single pan-Blue
candidate. Former PFP Legislator Shen Chih-hui antagonized
the local KMT establishment by running against Jason Hu for
mayor in 2005. The local KMT has refused to accommodate her
in any way, and Shen has declared she will stay in the race.
She will be up against KMT Legislator Lu Hsiu-yen, an image
candidate, and DPP Legislator Hsieh Ming-yuan, a DPP
Co-founder who has a stronger grassroots support base than
either of the two Blue candidates. Despite the Blue split,
Lu could possibly win if voters "dump" Shen to "save" Lu, the
stronger candidate

--District 3 is the only Taichung city district where the
Blue-Green base is evenly split. KMT candidate Daniel Hwang
(I-chiao),who left the PFP earlier this year, is nationally
known but does not have solid support from the local KMT
establishment. His opponent, Ho Min-hao, hails from a
long-time local political family and has cultivated a strong
grassroots base. Ho left the smaller pan-Green Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) in November to run under the DPP
banner.

Taichung County (5): Slight KMT Advantage
--------------


8. (C) Taichung County, with 1.5 million inhabitants, is
the fourth-largest administrative district in Taiwan and will
have 5 legislative seats. DPP President Chen narrowly won
all five districts in 2004. Subsequently, however, Districts
1-3 voted Blue in the 2004 LY election. DPP Taichung County
Staffer Chu Tsai-ching told AIT that District 2 and 4 are
uphill battles for the DPP, but the races in the other three
districts remain close.

Details on Taichung County Races:
--------------

--District 1 is a contest between strong KMT and DPP
incumbents. DPP Legislator Tsai Chi-chang, campaigning on
policy, image, and personal outreach, is running head-to-head
against KMT Legislator Liu Chuan-chung, who enjoys support

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from local farmers and fishermen's associations. Internal
KMT polls in late November indicated Tsai had overtaken Liu,
but the race remains too close to call.

--District 2 is the home base of Nonpartisan Solidarity Union
(NPSU) Legislator Yen Ching-piao, a pro-Blue independent with
an underworld background who is very influential in Taichung
politics. The KMT has not fielded its own candidate, ceding
the district to Yen. The DPP has recruited Liu Jui-lung, a
former rural township head, but he does not pose a
significant threat to Yen's electoral prospects.

--District 3 is Blue-leaning but the pan-Blue went through a
bloody primary and post-primary season, with PFP Legislator
Feng Ting-kuo bowing out only recently in favor of KMT
Legislator Chiang Lien-fu, who is currently under
investigation for vote-buying. If Chiang is able to
consolidate the Blue camp, DPP candidate Chin Chao-tung, who
himself survived a tough and bitter primary, will have
difficulty winning this race.

--District 4 is the home turf of powerful Legislator and KMT
Central Standing Committee member Hsu Chung-hsiung. A
relatively unknown TSU candidate, Kao Chi-tsan, will be
carrying the Green colors in this district. Hsu told AIT he
has barely "noticed the existence" of his TSU challenger.

--District 5 is narrowly Green-leaning. The contest between
DPP Legislator Kuo Chun-ming, who moved over from District 4
to avoid facing Hsu Chung-hsiung, and KMT Legislator Yang
Huan-ying, who has strong support from the "military
villages" (juan-cun) located in the district, will likely go
down to the wire.

Changhua County (4): Could Go Largely KMT
--------------


9. (C) Changhua County, with 1.3 million residents and 4
legislative seats, is the most developed and populous of
central Taiwan's three other counties. Changhua is a mixture
of urban and rural areas. In the 2004 presidential election
the DPP took the county by a slim margin of 30,000 votes, but
in the subsequent 2004 legislative election KMT candidates
garnered the largest share of the votes. Most KMT candidates
have deep pockets and have had long political careers at the
local level. They appear stronger than DPP rivals in
Districts 1-3, but KMT Changhua County Chairman Liao Yi-tien
nonetheless suggested the contests are so close that events
in the final weeks before election day could affect the
results. According to KMT and DPP party officials, Changhua
was once dominated by local KMT-associated political
factions, but the influence of these factions is on the wane
as a result of urbanization and economic development.

Details on Changhua Races:
--------------

--District 1 features a three-way race between DPP candidate
Ko Chin-te, Chen Hsiu-ching (KMT),and Chen Chin-ting (NPSU).
Ko, a New Tide faction protege of former (DPP) County
Magistrate Weng Chin-chu, stands to benefit from the
candidacy of the NPSU's Chen Chin-ting, a former KMT member
who shares an overlapping base of support with KMT candidate
Chen Hsiu-ching.

--District 2 pits DPP Legislator Chiu Chuang-chin, an
architect with a clean image, against KMT legislator Lin
Tsang-min, who has a large war chest amassed from running

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local video game parlors. A third candidate from the TSU,
Lin Jao-perng, could eat away at some of Chiu's support base.


--District 3 is the hometown area of DPP Legislator Lin
Chung-mou, who moved back to Changhua from Taipei City in
hopes of improving his reelection chances. KMT candidate
Cheng Jen-fu is a county councilor and daughter-in-law of a
local political powerbroker. Her family controls the county
cable television business, which is under investigation for
possible corruption. A third, independent candidate is not
seen as a major factor in the race.

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--District 4 is the only Changhua district where the DPP
candidate, Legislator Charles C. Chiang (Chao-i),appears to
be stronger than his KMT challenger, Hsiao Ching-tien. Hsiao
is handicapped by a split within the KMT camp since the two
KMT legislators he defeated in the primary are running as
independents.

Nantou County (2): One Seat Best Outcome for DPP
-------------- ---


10. (C) Nantou, Taiwan's only landlocked county, has a
population of 510,000, two legislative seats, and an economy
centered on the Sun Moon Lake tourist industry. KMT and DPP
officials both estimate that Blue voters outnumber Green
voters by a 55-45 margin. With redistricting, the voter
population is now split into two districts, one that leans
Blue, the other Green. DPP and KMT party officials told AIT
the KMT is likely to take District 1 while the DPP is in the
lead in District 2.

Details on Nantou Contests:
--------------

--District 1 will almost certainly go to KMT
Secretary-General Wu Dun-yih, known locally as the "ballot

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machine." Wu faced no KMT challengers in the spring primary
and is running against DPP Legislator Lin Yun-sheng. Lin
originally hailed from this district but ran, and lost, in
the DPP primary for District 2. Subsequently, the DPP
recruited Lin to run in this district, though his chances of
victory appear slim.

--District 2 is a contest between DPP Legislator Tang
Huo-shen, who enjoys a clean image, and KMT Lin Ming-chen, a
county councilor and former County Tourism Bureau Direct.
Although Tang is seen to have a slight edge since this is a
Green-leaning area, Lin enjoys strong backing from the Blue
supporters in this district who worked for the now defunct
Taiwan Provincial Government.

Yunlin County (2): Battling Factions
--------------


11. (C) Local factions are especially important in Yunlin,
one of Taiwan's poorest and most rural counties. Yunlin
voted 60-40 in favor of the DPP presidential ticket in 2004
and also elected a DPP magistrate in 2005, the only county in
central Taiwan to do so. A plethora of candidates from
several small parties and independents have registered to run
for the two legislative seats. The races, however, are
primarily a competition between two candidates backed by
current (DPP) Magistrate Su Chih-fen and two backed by former
(KMT) Magistrate Chang Jung-wei, a local powerbroker who was
previously imprisoned for corruption. The DPP and KMT are
expected to split the county, each winning one seat.

Details on Yunlin Races:
--------------

--District 1 pits KMT candidate Chang Chia-chun, the 28-year
old daughter of former Magistrate Chang Jung-wei, against DPP
Legislator Chen Hsien-chung, who has the backing of
Magistrate Su Chih-fen and his own local powerbase. This
district has generally voted for Blue candidates in past
elections.

--District 2 originally threatened to be a free-for-all with
two pan-Blue and two pan-Green candidates, but the KMT has
now unified behind a single candidate, Chang Shuo-wen, who
previously served as a secretary to former Magistrate Chang
Jung-wei and is the son of a former chairman of the County
Farmer's Association. DPP candidate Liu Chien-kuo, a protg
of current Magistrate Su, faces the possibility that
independent Legislator Yin Ling-ying, formerly of the TSU,
will siphon off enough Green votes to cost him the election
in a district that has generally favored Green candidates in
the past.
YOUNG