KMT VICE CHAIRMAN CHIANG PIN-KUNG ON MA'S JAPAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002537 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL JA TW SUBJECT: KMT VICE CHAIRMAN CHIANG PIN-KUNG ON MA'S JAPAN VISIT, CAMPAIGN WORRIES, UN REFERENDUM Classified By: Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Deputy Director on November 26, KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Pin-kung, a senior advisor to KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, asserted that Ma was able to convince Japanese leaders during his recent trip that he is not "anti-Japan" and seeks to expand bilateral cooperation. Conceding that DPP candidate Frank Hsieh is well-liked in Japan, Chiang argued the DPP independence agenda will limit Hsieh's ability to deliver the stable cross-Strait relationship that Japan wants. In the coming months, Ma will focus on the legislative and presidential campaigns and is unlikely to travel abroad again. Chiang noted KMT concerns for Ma's physical security as he campaigns around the island. He also urged the U.S. to use concrete measures to signal displeasure with President Chen over the DPP UN referendum. End Summary. Japan Trip A Success -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Chiang, Ma convinced his Japanese counterparts that he is neither "anti-" nor "pro-Japan," but sincerely committed to strengthening bilateral economic relations, especially in the technology sector. Ma mentioned Taiwan's desire for a free trade agreement with Japan, Chiang added, but no one in the KMT considers this likely for the foreseeable future. Instead, Ma and others in the KMT are focused on attracting Japanese investment to Taiwan. Chiang said Ma also reassured Japanese policymakers that, if elected president, he would make Taiwan a regional "peacemaker," and not a "troublemaker." ¶3. (C) Chiang noted that the Japanese media and political elites had suspected Ma of harboring anti-Japan sentiments because Ma has claimed the disputed Diaoyutai (Senkaku) Islands for Taiwan, and has criticized Japan for committing human rights violations in the past. This suspicion manifested itself during Ma's 2006 visit, when he encountered hostile questions from journalists and Japanese officials. This time around, Chiang continued, Ma received a much warmer welcome, meeting with senior legislators from the LDP and DPJ, former Prime Minister Mori, and exchanging remarks at a function with MOFA Six-Party talks negotiator Kenichiro Sasae. Ma's promise to forego "posturing" over the Diaoyutai in favor of negotiations was particularly well-received, Chiang added. Hsieh Handicapped By Independence Agenda -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Chiang, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) enjoys a good reputation in Japan because he was educated there. Nonetheless, Chiang predicted Hsieh will face tough questions over his ability to improve Taiwan's relations with China when he visits Japan in December. Although Hsieh has promised if elected to be more pragmatic than his predecessor in dealing with China, he has not distanced himself from the DPP's independence agenda, the pursuit of which is antithetical to the improved cross-Strait relations Japan wants. (Note: Japan Interchange Association Director-General Koichi Ito told AIT today, November 28, that Ma's visit was widely viewed in Japan as quite successful, and that this has stirred concern in Hsieh's camp, which is now redoubling its efforts to raise the profile of Hsieh's upcoming visit to Japan in mid-December; reported septel.) No More Trips For Ma -------------- ¶5. (C) In response to the Deputy Director's question about Ma's future travel plans, Chiang said that Ma is busy campaigning for KMT legislative candidates and, with just four months before the presidential election, is unlikely to go abroad again. He has, in any event, already visited "all the important spots." Chiang also ruled out a second visit to the U.S., "since Ma had already been there." Campaign Worries TAIPEI 00002537 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) Ma's long-stay campaign definitely increased his popularity in central and southern Taiwan, Chiang claimed, though he conceded the results may have been only temporary. Many voters remain undecided and have adopted a "wait-and-see" attitude because they are anxious about their personal financial situations. Anxious voters are more likely to vote with their hearts than with their heads, Chiang suggested, leaving them more vulnerable to DPP campaign "tricks." He mentioned the KMT is considering inviting election observers from the U.S. and Japan to monitor the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. ¶7. (C) Chiang worried that "anything can happen "in the final months of the presidential campaign, adding that the KMT's "top priority" is preventing a physical attack against Ma as he travels around the island campaigning. Chiang asserted that given President Chen's character, he would not rule out the possibility that Chen would declare martial law in order to postpone or invalidate the presidential election, but added that he expected Chen and the DPP to resort to other, less drastic measures first. If Chen were to declare martial law, Chiang claimed, neither the military nor the judiciary would oppose him, since both are now headed by Chen appointees. Urges U.S. to Push Harder Against UN Referendum -------------- -- ¶8. (C) Chiang told the Deputy Director that public support for the DPP UN referendum had decreased slightly following U.S. criticism. While verbal opposition has been helpful, Chiang said, the U.S. should to take more concrete measures, e.g., regarding visit requests, to dissuade Chen. The KMT cannot sidestep the UN referendum issue, Chiang argued, because public support for the idea is still very high, and although the KMT is exploring the possibility of both sides withdrawing their respective UN referenda, this is very unlikely to happen. Therefore, he said, the 18 KMT-led city and county governments will stand their ground in opposition to the "one-step" balloting process ordered by the DPP-controlled Central Election Commission, even though it could increase domestic political tensions. ¶9. (C) Chiang noted that he has visited the Mainland several times over the past year to help Taiwan businesses (Taishang) operating there resolve disputes and secure increased legal protection. Chiang claimed to be involved in all facets of Ma's presidential campaign, but noted that recently his primary duty has been to raise funds and solicit votes for Ma from among the Taishang. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Like a number of our other KMT interlocutors, Chiang appears to be guardedly optimistic about Ma's campaign but also very nervous and suspicious of last-minute "surprises" by the DPP, even to the extent of its employing violence. On this occasion, Chiang also seemed a bit more vehement in his comments about the DPP administration, in one instance calling it a "bandit regime" that has usurped government powers for its own interests. Bio Note -------------- ¶11. (U) Chiang Pin-kung (P.K. Chiang) holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from Tokyo University. He served as Minister of Economic Affairs under President Lee Teng-hui from 1993-95, as Chairman of the Executive Yuan Council for Economic Planning and Development from 1995-2000, and as Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Yuan from 2001-04. In addition to his current role as a KMT Vice Chairman, Chiang is an at-large legislator for the KMT. YOUNG