CANDIDATES COMPETE TO SURVIVE UNDER NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002511

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES COMPETE TO SURVIVE UNDER NEW
LEGISLATIVE ELECTION SYSTEM

REF: TAIPEI 01066

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan will introduce a radically revamped
legislative election system in 2008, halving the number of
legislators and establishing 73 new election districts with
single representatives. The new system will also include 6
seats reserved for aborigines and 34 at large party-list
representatives. The previous system allowed many "media
image" candidates to win election based on a small number of
votes spread throughout large multi-member districts. By
contrast, the new single-member districts compel candidates
to focus on grassroots work to win majority support in their
districts. Some prominent "image" legislators who lack local
bases have already been eliminated in party primaries. Some
others are busy working the grassroots to build the support
bases they now need to compete in head-to-head district
competition, while still others have managed to secure slots
as party list candidates. End Summary.

New Rules of the Game...
--------------


2. (U) Taiwan will introduce a radically revamped
legislative election system on January 12, 2008, halving the
number of legislators from 225 to 113 and establishing 73
small election districts with single representatives. This
change abandons the previous multi-member districts and also
gives voters a second ballot they can cast for the party of
their choice. The 73 new electoral districts each contain an
average of 300,000 residents, though several are much smaller
because each county and city has at least one district,
regardless of population. Indigenous peoples will cast
ballots for 6 additional seats reserved for plains and
mountain aborigines running in island-wide districts. The
remaining 34 seats will be allocated among the political
parties based on the proportion of votes they receive on a
second ballot for party preference (reftel).

...Force Candidates to Focus on Grassroots
--------------


3. (C) The previous system allowed many "image" candidates,
including some controversial figures, to rely on media
exposure to gain the support they needed from a small number
of voters in large multi-member districts. Image candidates
were especially common in metropolitan areas such as Taipei.
Under the new system, most district candidates must focus on
grassroots work to win majority support in their election
districts. DPP Legislator Tsai Chi-chang described
candidates who focus on media exposure as the "air force,"
who are dropping bombs but without knowing where the bombs
will land, that is, without knowing whether potential voters
will see them. By contrast, Tsai characterized his current
focus on attending weddings and funerals as an "infantry"
campaign. KMT Legislator and Standing Committee member Hsu
Chung-hsiung recently told AIT that under the new system a
candidate's personality and charisma, personal connections,
and constituent services will be more important to local
voters than party identification or legislative record. As a
result, he said, candidates are spending most of their time
in their home districts meeting local residents and courting
voters rather than passing bills in the legislature. On a
more negative note, a number of more able, policy-oriented
legislators have told AIT they fear the new system will
produce fewer legislators with international and national
policy exposure.


4. (C) The candidates' focus on working the grassroots
rather than the media has produced what many observers
describe as a "cold" election atmosphere, with campaign
billboards and political rallies appearing later than in
previous LY elections. Taipei County DPP Director Chang
Chi-wen explained to AIT that candidates are spending less on
large rallies and publicity because they are not as effective
in the smaller districts. Many candidates have chosen to
delay the establishment of their campaign headquarters until

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late November, choosing instead to spend more time attending
as many local funerals and weddings as possible.

A Profile of Candidate Types
--------------


5. (C) Traditionally, Taiwan legislators have fallen into
two general categories: those with strong influence in their
local community and those with media reputations, whether
savory or unsavory. Many legislators of course combine
elements of both categories. With the halving of the
legislature and under the new election rules, most district
candidates have no choice but to focus less on media
appearances and more on consolidating or building their local
political bases. Rather than running in district contests, a
number of well-known "image" candidates now appear on party
lists, which include some candidates without local bases and
others who lost their district primary races to candidates
with stronger local bases.


6. (C) The power broker, one important type of locally
influential legislator, tends to be heavy on organization but
weak on policy and image. Local power brokers generally
spend their whole career in a particular locale, working
their way up through a series of positions such as
councilperson, mayor, and legislator, and many have major
business interests. A power broker from a rural district may
rely on local factions, strong support from agricultural and
irrigation associations, and vote buying to mobilize
supporters on election day. Many KMT and pro-Blue
independent legislators fall into this category, as
traditionally the KMT has controlled the network of
agricultural and irrigation associations and has co-opted
local factions.


7. (C) Some legislators or their family members have
encountered legal problems related corruption or vote buying.
A powerful independent legislator, Yen Ching-piao in
Taichung County, has an underworld gang background, but is
quite popular locally and regarded as effective in providing
services to constituents. Recognizing his influence, both
the KMT and DPP try to stay on his good side. (Note: KMT
stalwarts Ma Ying-jeou and Wang Jin-pyng recently appeared
prominently at a well-publicized rally at each side of Yen.
End Note.)


8. (C) Populist candidates, who can be found in both rural
and urban areas, rely on a combination of personal image,
policy ideals, and appeal to local interests to win votes.
Lacking organizational backing, they work to build support by
appealing directly through personal interactions with voters.
Such candidates attend innumerable weddings and funerals and
also work the parks and markets to increase recognition by
constituents. They promote popular community-focused
projects and also offer a variety of constituent services.


9. (C) A close bellwether race in Taichung County's First
District pits Liu Chuan-chung, a local KMT power broker,
against Tsai Chi-chang, a DPP populist. Both incumbent
legislators, the wealthy Liu has won past elections handily
by relying on a powerful local faction, the network of
agricultural and irrigation associations, and vote buying,
according to Tsai. Liu remains virtually unknown to the
media in Taipei, because he rarely shows up at the
legislature. In contrast to Liu, who relies on organizations
rather than personal connections to individual voters, Tsai
spends his days attending funerals and weddings to make
personal contact with large numbers of potential supporters.
Tsai also emphasizes his responsiveness to the requests of

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local residents for community projects such as parks and his
work to set up a service that provides free legal advice to
constituents.


10. (C) Image candidates rely heavily on media publicity,
with some attracting attention by taking radical positions,
spreading sensational scandal stories, or resorting to fierce
attacks on political opponents. Traditionally, image-based
legislators have flourished in urban areas, where social
networks are lacking and personal acquaintance is less

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important to voters. Toughness often works better than a
positive image. KMT candidate Chiu Yi of Kaohsiung, for
example, is wildly popular among Deep Blue supporters for his
relentless televised exposes of alleged DPP corruption
scandals involving those close to President Chen. The KMT
has chosen to give Chiu a high position on its party list,
since his imprisonment for leading a mob assault on the
Kaohsiung district court after President Chen's reelection in
2004 precluded him from running in the primary for a district
seat.


11. (C) Image legislators also include some political
idealists who have tried to promote intra-party reform and
progressive legislation on social, economic, and
environmental issues, often in cooperation with counterparts
from other parties. Such "positive image" legislators,
especially urban intellectuals, fared poorly in the DPP's
legislative primaries. A typical example is DPP legislator
Bikhim Hsiao, a foreign policy specialist and proponent of
women's and children's issues. Hsiao lost her primary to
Wang Shih-chien, a DPP "tough" guy famous for strident
attacks on the KMT in front of the TV cameras. Wang also
benefited from stronger organization work with local party
members. Wang, recently involved in an extramarital scandal,
is now competing against another "positive image" candidate,
the KMT's Justin Chou. Although Wang's Taipei District has a
Green majority, his victory is not assured because of his
scandal and this will be a closely watched race.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Taiwan's new legislative election system is expected
to increase the rate of incumbency and the power of
individual legislators, to marginalize small parties and
accelerate the trend toward a two-party political system, and
to force district legislators to be responsive to
constituents' requests for services. Some fear the focus of
legislators on their constituencies may cause them to neglect
legislation and other important work of the LY itself.
Unfortunately, the new system will not end and may even
exacerbate the problem of vote buying in some districts. A
significant number of the more strident legislators may also
remain in the new LY, which means that partisan shouting
matches and similar attention-grabbing antics are likely to
continue. Nonetheless, some of these who lack a local
support base may also find it difficult to retain their seats
under this new system.
YOUNG