TAIWAN DEFENSE BUDGET MOVES ONE STEP FORWARD:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002408 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2032 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MASS MCAP CH TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN DEFENSE BUDGET MOVES ONE STEP FORWARD: PATRIOT MISSILES, F-16'S, AND HSIUNG-FENG 2E CRUISE MISSILES Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young. Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary. A Legislative Yuan (LY) joint committee has approved the 2008 defense budget and sent it to the full LY for action. The approved defense weapons systems include PAC-2 upgrades, PAC-3 missiles, P-3C aircraft, diesel submarines, and F-16 fighters, while reducing funds for Taiwan's indigenous Hsiung-feng 2E (HF-2E) cruise missiles. KMT legislator Su Chi sought to zero-out the entire HF-2E budget, but succeeded in cutting only one-third of the funding. President Chen Shui-bian and the ruling DPP quickly charged that the KMT, and specifically Su Chi, were undermining Taiwan's defense. Su countered by claiming President Chen had ordered production of nuclear weapons, a charge Chen vehemently denied and for which Su offered no credible evidence. On both HF-2E and the nuclear charge, Su was apparently operating on his own recognizance, and KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou subsequently distanced himself from Su's statements. End Summary. LY Committee Approves Classified Defense Budget -------------- -- ¶2. (C) The LY Joint Defense-Budget Committee on Oct. 16 approved funding for the following weapons systems in the classified defense budget: -- PAC-2 upgrades: NT$4.399 billion (US$ 135.3 million) -- PAC-3 missiles: NT$ 17.523 billion (US$539.2 million) -- P-3C aircraft: NT$ 1.761 billion (US$54.2 million) -- Diesel submarines: NT$5.488 billion (US$168.8 million) -- F16 C/D fighters (66 units): NT$12.25 billion (US$377 million). The Joint Committee cut NT$10 billion from the original 2008 NT$22.25 billion F-16 budget proposal, then "froze" the remaining NT$12.25 billion pending receipt of U.S. Price & Availability (P&A) data. An LY Joint Committee document that AIT received from a member of the committee combined the 2007 F-16 NT$15 billion (also frozen with a deadline of Oct 31) with the 2008 N$12.25 for "a total of NT$27.25 billion" in F-16 funding, suggesting legislators apparently intend for the 2007 F-16 budget to continue beyond the Oct. 31 deadline and carry over to 2008. (Note: LY contacts tell AIT that the LY will not specifically address this carry-over issue until after Oct. 31, if at all.) 
-- Hsiung-feng 2E (HF-2E) cruise missiles: NT$2.55 billion (US$78.5 million). Of the proposed 2007 HF-2E NT$3.83 billion budget proposal, 1/3 was passed, 1/3 cut, and 1/3 frozen. -- Also approved were: AH-64D attack helicopters (30 units) at NT$7.43 billion (US$229 million); UH-60M utility helicopters (60 units) at NT$6.674 billion (US$205 million); Harpoon missiles NT$1.135 billion (US$35 million); and E-2T upgrade at NT$305.6 million (US$ 9.4 million) after NT$100 million was cut from the proposal and the entire budget frozen pending receipt of P&A data. ¶3. (C) The Joint Committee decision now goes to the full LY for the second reading and floor debate, probably in mid- to late-November. The LY plenary usually endorses Joint Committee budget decisions, but on occasion it will reduce or slash more controversial budget items. If the LY is to meet its schedule for passing the budget in time for adjournment on December 21 -- and legislators running in the January 12 legislative elections have strong incentive to do so -- final LY budget approval would have to be made by December 21. President Chen Attacks KMT Defense Bona Fides -------------- ¶4. (U) President (and DPP Chair) Chen Shui-bian and other TAIPEI 00002408 002 OF 003 DPP leaders quickly went on the attack, criticizing the pan-Blue parties for cutting the HF-2E budget. He singled out "a certain opposition legislator" -- KMT legislator Su Chi (see par 6) -- for trying to cut HF-2E funding in the face of "988 missiles" aimed at Taiwan by China. If the opposition pan-Blues continue to insist on cutting the defense budget, Chen challenged, there should be a public debate on "whether Taiwan needs a national defense" so that citizens "can understand clearly which side is really defending Taiwan's security." KMT Treads Water on Defense -------------- ¶5. (U) KMT leaders were, in turn, quick to deny Chen's criticisms and to reject his debate challenge. Of course Taiwan needs defense, but it should be a "reasonable defense," KMT spokesman Su Chun-bin cryptically rejoined. KMT legislator and defense expert Lin Yu-fang told the press that the KMT does not oppose defense spending. Rather, KMT reduction of the HF-2E budget on Oct. 16 was because the testing phase has not been completed. "Hopefully," he said, HF-2E budget cuts can be restored after completion of the necessary tests, "paving the way for mass production." Su Chi told the press that the cuts by the pan-Blue dominated Joint Committee were to maintain regional stability and avoid provoking China. ¶6. (C) Lin Yu-fang told AIT that Su Chi had been the main force behind cutting the HF-2E budget and had actually tried to zero-out the HF-2E budget. Lin termed this "foolish" and insisted that Su was acting on his own and not for the party or even for candidate Ma. Ma, he noted, had publicly distanced himself from Su Chi by stating that Su's opposition to the HF-2E reflected his role as a legislator. Lin, who grew up in a farming community in southern Taiwan, argued that Su Chi does not understand Taiwan politics or the political ramifications of his statements. ¶7. (C) Lin told AIT that he and fellow KMT legislator (and retired Army General) Shuai Hua-ming had worked to block Su Chi's move to zero-out the HF-2E and had succeeded in retaining two-thirds of the HF-2E budget. The one-third that was frozen, he said with a smile, would be readily available for HF-2E production when needed. Lin, who like Su earned his doctorate in the U.S., was particularly incensed at Su Chi's frequent touting his ties to the U.S. and his "U.S. friends" in support of his budget positions. This, Lin argued, was actually counterproductive. ¶8. (C) On Friday, Oct. 19, Su Chi took the LY podium and publicly charged that President Chen had ordered the production of nuclear weapons. Su claimed that President Chen's objective was to provide leverage with the U.S. to request asylum in the event of possible indictment for corruption after leaving office. President Chen and senior administration officials immediately denied Su's charges. When DDIR queried Su about his charge, Su could provide only hearsay third-hand evidence. This cast serious doubt on the bona fides of Su's dramatic charge, doubt reinforced by the lack of any follow-up over the ensuing week. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The differences between Su Chi and Lin Yu-fang -- the KMT's two most influential defense specialists who cooperated for two years to block the defense "Special Budget -- appear to reflect contrasting visions of cross-Strait relations and Taiwan's future defense needs. While Lin Yu-fang has been (at least the past six months) a strong supporter of PAC-3 acquisition, Su Chi continued leading the opposition to PAC-3's right down to the Oct. 16 committee vote. The differences between Su and Lin are only partially explained by their very different political situation -- Lin is running for reelection in a heavily competitive district, whereas Su Chi has the luxury of holding an "at-large" KMT seat that TAIPEI 00002408 003 OF 003 does not require specific campaigning. YOUNG