KMT TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON REFERENDA, KMT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002296 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2032 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: KMT TAIPEI MAYOR HAU LONG-BIN ON REFERENDA, KMT POLITICS, "NATIONAL DAY" Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: KMT Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin told the Director on October 4 that KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's campaign was "getting better," and that Ma's long-stay program was a continuing success. The presidential election will be close because 90 percent of Taiwan's voters have already decided, and they are split 50-50 along blue-green lines. If Ma wants to win, Hau argued, he should ignore the remaining "swing voters" and focus on maximizing KMT voter turnout. Deep-blues like Hau and Lien Chan dislike the KMT UN referendum, but most recognize it as a necessary evil and will still vote for Ma. President Chen and the DPP will continue to "provoke" the U.S. and China in the run-up to the presidential election, Hau predicted, because Chen's standing up to U.S. and Chinese pressure energizes the deep-green base. Hau welcomed assurances that AIT's Neihu office project was still underway, and predicted that October 10 "National Day" celebration would remain orderly. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Director met with KMT Taipei Mayor Hau Long-bin on October 4 to discuss KMT party politics, the upcoming "National Day" celebrations, and current U.S.-Taiwan relations. Hau also asked about the status of AIT's proposed new office complex (NOC). Ma Campaign -------------- ¶3. (C) Hau told the Director that KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's campaign was "getting better," and that Ma's long-stay program in southern Taiwan was an ongoing success. Despite Ma's increasing traction in the south, Hau continued, the race will still be "very close." This is because the voting public is almost evenly split along blue-green lines, with only ten percent of Taiwan's voters remaining undecided. Hau argued that the current POLITICAL climate suggests that Ma can, without any special effort, count on taking at least half of the "undecideds." But, even if Ma were to exert himself to appeal to centrist voters, at least 30-40 percent would still support Ma's opponent, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting). It makes more sense for Ma to focus on energizing the notoriously apathetic KMT base. A higher-than-average turnout for the presidential election would bode well for a KMT victory, Hau insisted, because it would indicate high KMT participation. KMT UN Referendum -------------- ¶4. (C) Hau told the Director that he and other KMT leaders, including Ma and KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan, disliked the KMT UN referendum, but recognized it as a necessary evil. Hau explained that the KMT "had to" launch its own UN referendum to match public opinion and to siphon support away from the DPP version. Hau predicted that, despite objections to the KMT UN referendum and Ma's other nods to "Taiwan consciousness," most deep-blues realize the critical importance of this presidential election and will vote for Ma, even if it is with "tears in their eyes." ¶5. (C) In response to Hau's inquiry, the Director remarked that although both UN referenda are problematic, the DPP version is worse because it touches on the sensitive issue of name-change. Hau asserted that the DPP referendum is the first step in the DPP's plan to "eliminate the ROC." Although the DPP referendum will almost certainly fail this time around, he predicted, if the voters ever approve "UN for Taiwan," the DPP will then push to rename the country accordingly. The Director noted that, while the U.S. supports Taiwan charting its own course through democratic means, the U.S. opposes acts which could provoke cross-Strait tension with Beijing. ¶6. (C) Hau claimed that U.S. public opposition to the DPP referendum had only strengthened support for President Chen and the DPP. Chen argues to his base that the U.S. is trying to "bully" Taiwan into submission, and earns points by "bravely" standing up to U.S. pressure. Hau suggested that, TAIPEI 00002296 002 OF 002 while the DPP welcomes U.S. verbal opposition, President Chen might give in if the U.S. pressured Taiwan's few remaining diplomatic allies. Hau warned that President Chen will continue efforts to "provoke" the U.S. and China in the run-up to the presidential election. AIT Neihu Project -------------- ¶7. (C) Hau asked for a status report on AIT's new office complex. The Director stated that $80 million has already been set aside to begin initial preparations and construction at the NOC site, and that it was the Director's personal hope to hold a public groundbreaking ceremony at the Neihu site before his departure in 2009. The Director mentioned he intended to invite Hau, MOFA representatives, and others to the ceremony. Hau's adviser, Prof. Zhuang Wen-si, remarked that a public ceremony would help reduce anxiety that the U.S. was not committed to building a new complex, and releasing the current property to the Taiwan government. The Director assured Hau and Zhuang that budget concerns had merely delayed the NOC project, which the Director hoped could be completed as early as 2012. Hau Expects Orderly National Day Celebrations -------------- ¶8. (C) Hau told the Director he did not expect any significant public disturbances during the October 10 "National Day" celebration. Former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-te's "Red Shirt Army" no longer draws large crowds, and should not present a security concern, Hau predicted. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Hau's views on Taiwan politics are freighted by his and his father's deep Blue roots. But his observation that an over-aggressive USG response to the DPP UN referendum plays to the ruling party's strategy is something we've heard elsewhere. YOUNG