KMT VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OUTLINES ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 002193 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP/TC,STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD AND KATZ, TREASURY FOR OASIA/TTYANG E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EFIN PINR TW CH SUBJECT: KMT VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OUTLINES ECONOMIC AGENDA BEFORE U.S. TRIP REF: TAIPEI 1670 (NOTAL) TAIPEI 00002193 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Stephen M. Young, AIT Director, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In a September 26 meeting with the Director, KMT Vice Presidential candidate Vincent Siew (Hsiao Wan-chang) previewed his October 3-5 visit to Washington, where he will articlulate KMT plans for Taiwan to play a "moderate and positive" regional role if they return to power next year. Siew reiterated his support for cross-Strait economic liberalization (reftel),including increased transportation, investment, and tourism. He noted, however, that China's growing economic strength is making it increasingly less reliant on Taiwan investment and business links. Siew said KMT economic policy hinges on stimulating growth through increased domestic demand, especially investment. The Director emphasized the importance of progress on economic and defense issues, particularly cross-Strait security, and urged prompt passage of defense spending legislation this fall. He also called for continued cooperation on export controls and counter-proliferation, and highlighted the Trade and Investment Framwork Agreement (TIFA) as the best vehicle for addressing ongoing U.S. market access concerns. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The meeting took place at Siew's newly-opened Cross-Straits Common Market Foundation (CSCMF) office in Taipei. Siew was accompanied by advisor and former Health Minister Dr. Steve Chan (Chan Chi-shean; see bio par. 10) and CSCMF Chief Executive Officer Douglas Hung. The Director was joined by economic chief (notetaker). -------------- -------------- Siew's Washington agenda; importance of defense budget -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Noting that Siew would receive a warm welcome during his October 3-5 visit to Washington, the Director stressed U.S. interest in working with the next Taiwan administration. Relations have suffered in recent months, especially over the UN referendum issue, but the two sides must continue to prudently address defense, economic, and, in particular, cross-Strait security issues. After Washington, Siew said that he will travel to the San Francisco area, including technology sector meetings in Silicon Valley, and Vancouver. Responding to the Director, Siew identified two goals for his Washington visit: 1) On behalf of Ma Ying-jeou, to articulate the KMT's future plans for national defense, foreign, cross-Strait, and economic policy; and 2) to discuss the KMT's plans if returned to the Presidential Palace to play a "moderate and positive" role as "stakeholder and peace-maker" in the region. The Director reiterated the importance of a continued recovery in Taiwan defense spending toward a target of 3 percent of GDP, and said he would use a meeting with Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-pyng later in the day (septel) to encourage prompt action on the annual defense budget. Siew said Ma told him that the KMT is committed to defense budget passage. -------------- Economic relations with China -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Siew, the KMT continues to support improved cross-Strait economic ties, and hopes that China will be ready to respond quickly and favorably to a Ma administration's overtures. He added, however, that China's growing economic strength has made Taiwan investment and business links relatively less important than in the past. China, for example, is now less reliant on Taiwan for high technology investment and know-how. As a result, explained Siew, China is less "anxious" to engage with Taiwan on TAIPEI 00002193 002.2 OF 003 cross-Strait economic liberalization, and negotiations will therefore be "more difficult" than in the past. In Siew's view, cross-Strait economic negotiations will be easier under the KMT, as the PRC would not "immediately trust" Frank Hsieh. In general, observed Siew, Taiwan is "losing our leverage" on economic relations with China. Siew noted that Chinese friends and contacts are optimistic that cross-Strait economic relations will improve if Ma wins the election. Taiwan is gradually losing its economic advantage over China, he continued, and must "work out a dialogue" while avoiding becoming overly dependent on the PRC. -------------- KMT economic platform -------------- ¶5. (C) Outlining the KMT's overall economic platform, Siew highlighted the importance of stimulating domestic demand to boost economic growth. Although consumer spending remains strong, investment is relatively low. Improved cross-Strait economic ties would help encourage multinational corporations to use Taiwan as a regional operations hub. In Siew's analysis, upgrading Taiwan's infrastructure and improving its quality of life will encourage foreign companies to locate here. The Director said that eventual cross-Strait flights should be open to third-country travelers, a proposition welcomed by Siew, who said that Taiwan "does not need to protect" its transportation sector. Siew also said Taiwan would be willing to accept third-country carriers in a Ma administration, although China likely would oppose this. He described exchange of a banking surveillance memorandum of understanding (MOU) as a "precondition" for opening cross-Strait financial ties, and noted that Hong Kong could serve as a model in this regard. Siew said he welcomes branch offices of Chinese banks in Taiwan, and supports Chinese investment in Taiwan's science parks as long as IPR protections are respected. ¶6. (C) Siew elaborated on the KMT's priorities, which include achieving annual GDP growth of 6 percent through increased investment, as well as raising per capita GDP to USD $20,000 and reducing unemployment to below 3 percent by 2011. According to Siew, an economic slowdown in the U.S. would have only limited impact on the Taiwan economy, which must rely instead on domestic factors to increase growth. Siew, a native of the southern Taiwan city of Chiayi, also identified reducing the north-south income and development gap as a top priority. -------------- Cross-strait investment and tourism -------------- ¶7. (C) Siew expressed satisfaction that China has publicly indicated its willingness to accept increased cross-Strait economic ties. He said a Ma administration would welcome Chinese investment in Taiwan on a case-by-case basis. Although the KMT would generally be open to all Chinese investment, high technology, agriculture, and other sensitive sectors would have to be handled carefully. Cross-Strait investment should be "two way," added Siew. He proposed allowing one million Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan during the first year of a liberalized tourism policy. After the initial increase, the hotel sector would be able to make decisions about investing in increased capacity. Siew identified Jinmen as a potential site for casino development to take advanatage of liberalized cross-Strait tourism. -------------- U.S.-Taiwan economic agenda -------------- ¶8. (C) The Director stressed that continued cooperation on export controls and counter-proliferation remains a top U.S. TAIPEI 00002193 003.2 OF 003 priority. Although discussion of a bilateral free trade agreement is unrealistic given the President's lack of trade promotion authority, the Director highlighted the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as the primary vehicle for expanding U.S.-Taiwan trade and economic ties, and said the two sides should continue to press ahead on bilateral investment, taxation, and procurement concerns, as well as continue to address pharmaceutical pricing issues. ¶9. (C) COMMENT. Siew repeated his pragmatic, liberal approach to cross-Strait economic opening, but today's meeting was our first chance to hear him elaborate on the KMT's overall economic policy. Siew's emphasis on stimulating domestic demand is a welcome counterpoint to a traditional focus on export-led growth, and could serve as a useful model in the region. A broader and less China-centric economic development plan is also likely to play better in the political arena. END COMMENT. ¶10. (C) Biographic data on Steve Chan (Chan Chi-shean): Chan, 59, is a Changhua native and served as Minister of Health under President Lee Teng-hui in 1997-2000. He will accompany Vincent Siew during his October 2007 visit to the U.S. A surgeon, Chan completed his residency at Yale in 1974-76, and continued his medical training in Philadelphia in 1976-80 before practicing in California in 1980-90, including a 1986-89 stint as Chief of the Department of Surgery at Pomono Medical Center. Chan returned to Taiwan in 1990, and served as President of the Chimei Foundation Medical Center in Tainan from 1990 through 1997. Chan continues to be associated with Chimei, which was involved in medical treatment related to the 2004 campaign shooting involving Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu, and more recently provided care to the wife of Taichung mayor Jason Hsu after she was seriously injured in a car crash last November. Chan and his wife Lee Lee-hung have two children in the U.S.: a son who works as a federal attorney in New York, and a daughter in her final year at Boston University medical school. YOUNG