DUELING UN RALLIES: MOSTLY SMOKE, LITTLE FIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 002130

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/15/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DUELING UN RALLIES: MOSTLY SMOKE, LITTLE FIRE

REF: TAIPEI 02123

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The DPP and KMT on September 15 hosted
competing rallies in Kaohsiung and Taichung, respectively,
that aimed to promote Taiwan's entry into the UN and their
party's separate UN referenda. Led by all the DPP's top
leaders, the party faithful turned out in moderate numbers to
support the DPP's proposed UN referendum and bid to join the
organization under the name "Taiwan." President Chen urged
voters to support the referendum and the Hsieh-Su
presidential ticket next March, but said nothing about U.S.
opposition to the referendum. Nor did he break any new
ground on cross-Strait or sovereignty issues. In their
competing rally, KMT leaders criticized the DPP
administration for poor economic performance and emphasized
the need to raise people's living standards. Ma called the
DPP's UN referendum an "election gimmick" intended to stir up
emotions ahead of the presidential race. AIT observed little
anti-U.S. rhetoric at either event. End Summary.


DPP Leading the UN Charge in Kaohsiung...
--------------


2. (C) Led by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leaders,
the party faithful turned out in moderate numbers on
September 15 for the "Protect Taiwan, Enter UN" march and
rally in Kaohsiung. The rally aimed to stir up support for
the DPP's planned UN referendum bid to join the organization
under the name "Taiwan." Despite claims by organizers that
more than 500,000 people participated, more realistic police
estimates ranged from 50,000 to 150,000. Kaohsiung police at
the rally told AIT/K the number was around 50,000, explaining
that the site could not physically accommodate more people.
The DPP, which mobilized supporters from all over the island,
especially the south, budgeted NTD28 million (USD850,000) for
the event to cover costs of tour buses and meals for the
participants. In addition to the DPP, the Taiwan Solidarity
Union (TSU) also participated in the event, despite former
President Lee Teng-hui's recent criticism of the DPP and KMT
UN referenda.


3. (SBU) The DPP parade started at 4:30 in the afternoon
and marched to the night rally site, near the Kaohsiung Art
Museum. President Chen Shui-bian led most of the cabinet, as
well as presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting),vice
presidential candidate Su Tseng-chang, and other DPP
heavyweights in a 4 km march through downtown Kaohsiung. The
marchers entered the final rally grounds at around 6:00 p.m.
They passed through a large green and orange "UN arch,"
symbolizing Taiwan's UN bid, while Beethoven's "Ode to Joy"
(All Men are Brothers),Chen's perennial campaign song,
blared in the background. Although the DPP rejected a
proposal to encourage protesters to wear "Bush shoes" (a
local nickname for "Croc"-type sandals) as a protest against
the U.S., vendors hawking the sandals seemed to do a brisk
business.


4. (SBU) President Chen and candidate Hsieh delivered
impassioned speeches at the evening rally. Chen urged the
people to support the DPP's UN referendum and the Hsieh-Su
presidential ticket next March. Chen also criticized the KMT
for the highly restrictive referendum law passed in 2005,
which he claimed has set a high bar for any referendum to
pass. Presidential candidate Frank Hsieh attacked KMT
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou for not "standing with
Taiwan" and challenged Ma "to give Taiwan a chance" if he
really loves Taiwan. None of the rally speakers mentioned
U.S. opposition to Taiwan's UN bid and the DPP's UN
referendum. On his way down to Kaohsiung, however, President
Chen told reporters that U.S.-Taiwan relations were at low
ebb and claimed without elaboration that high-level talks
with Washington had been suspended.

...Linking Up with New York Event
--------------


5. (SBU) The Kaohsiung rally prominently featured a DVC

TAIPEI 00002130 002 OF 002


link to a rally held simultaneously in New York.
Participants at both locations chanted "protect Taiwan, elect
our own people, UN for Taiwan" at the climax of the rally.
The New York event was led by Taiwan Government Information
Office Spokesman Shieh Jyr-wei, who flew out especially for
the occasion, and entertained the crowd with a rap
performance. Media report over 3,000 people attended the New
York activity.

KMT Trying to Keep Up
--------------


6. (C) The opposition KMT, for its part, organized a march
and rally in Taichung City intended to compete with the DPP
Kaohsiung event. Dubbed "Fight for people's livelihood,
return to the UN," the Taichung activities largely focused on
attacking the DPP administration for corruption, poor
economic performance, and failing to improve living
standards. Police estimate turnout was around 50,000.
Although most of the KMT senior leadership attended either
the march or the rally, notably absent were former KMT
Chairman Lien Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong, who have
been critical of the KMT referendum drive. Some media
claimed enthusiasm and participation by KMT legislators from
northern Taiwan was muted. Local branches chartered 1,000
tour buses to take people to the rally and built 10 floats to
highlight civic, social, and economic problems that the DPP
administration has failed to address.


7. (SBU) KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, wearing a
farmer's hat, polo shirt, rolled up blue jeans and
blue-and-white flip-flops to symbolize his "Taiwaneseness,"
emphasized economic themes rather than the UN issue during
his speech. Ma said the KMT rally aimed to fight for
improving people's daily lives and economic conditions. "If
we can't improve the people's lives first, the issue of the
UN referendum is superfluous," Ma said. Ma criticized the
DPP referendum as an "election gimmick" intended to stir up
emotions ahead of the presidential race next March.

Pro-Unification Groups on Their Own
--------------


8. (SBU) Striking a dissonant chord, several
pro-unification groups in Taipei held a rally on the same day
to voice their opposition to the DPP and KMT UN proposals.
Participants criticized the DPP referendum as pursuing Taiwan
independence. Some urged maintenance of the "status
quo"--Taiwan and the mainland belong to one China--as the
only way to guarantee peace. Others said that as long as
they enjoy a good job and life, there is no need to be a
member of the UN. Taipei police estimate that approximately
12,000 people attended the Taipei event.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Despite a moderate turnout for the DPP and KMT
rallies, the well-orchestrated crowds did not seem
particularly enthusiastic. While rally leaders and speakers
were impassioned, most participants appeared to be at the
events only because they had been mobilized by their
respective party apparatuses. The events in Kaohsiung and
Taichung will have little if any impact on Taiwan's bid to
enter the UN, and probably only limited effect in drumming up
further support for the UN referendum proposals, but the
activities marked the first major political rallies of the
2008 presidential campaign.
YOUNG