KMT-DPP FACE CHALLENGES IN ATTRACTING YOUTH SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001819 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV SOCI TW SUBJECT: KMT-DPP FACE CHALLENGES IN ATTRACTING YOUTH SUPPORT Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Scholars, party officials, students, and young professionals all tell AIT that there is a wide gap between the needs and desires of youth and the programs and ideologies of the two main parties in Taiwan. Both camps are working to tailor their messages to appeal to the youth and capture their votes, the KMT emphasizing the economy and the DPP stressing national identity, though some contacts doubt the effectiveness of either theme. Taiwanese youth are generally put off by politics, which they view as dirty, and they tend to regard both major parties with equal disdain. The organizers of a new small third party hope to find the right message to attract disaffected youth, but the results so far have been disappoining. End Summary. The Past Becomes Increasingly Irrelevant... -------------- ¶2. (C) AIT recently canvassed a variety of contacts from political parties, academia, and the general public for their views on the attitudes of Taiwan's youth toward politics. Jou Yi-cheng, former DPP Youth Affairs Director who recently founded the Third Society Party, told AIT that he expected historical issues to play a less prominent role in determining the party identification of young voters in the future. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the end of martial law in Taiwan, he noted, but yesterday's issues and causes have little effect on young people's attitudes. A group of students at Taichung's Ming Dao High School in Taichung told AIT that unlike their parents who lived under martial law and fought tirelessly for democracy, their own political decisions are guided by personal preferences rather than history. The traditional image of the opposition KMT as a conservative party out of touch with young people and of the ruling DPP as a "younger" party focused on reform do not hold sway with Taiwan youth, scholars argue. Academia Sinica Fellow Wu Nai-teh attributed this shift in perception to the increasing number of DPP scandals over the past few years, which has alienated many young supporters. On the other hand, KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's reformist agenda and his movie star appearance have improved his party's standing with young people, pollster Tai Li-an explained. ...While Familial Socialization Becomes More Pertinent -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Academia Sinica Scholar Michael Hsiao, parental transmission is the major determinant of initial party identification among young voters. He estimates that 60% of first time voters are influenced by their parents. Wu Nai-teh agreed with this assessment, adding that family socialization has been playing an increasingly significant role in the political socialization of young voters in Taiwan. One explanation for the high degree of family influence, according to Russell Hsiao, a 24 year old young professional, is the absence of other social networks within Taiwanese society to cultivate and support a political identity that young people can identify with. Family remains especially important because peer-to-peer political socialization is neither well developed nor well-defined, he explained. At a meeting with high school students in Taichung, one participant told AIT that young people discuss politics more openly with their parents at home than with their friends at school and that many of her friends share the same political views as their parents. KMT Approach: Image and the Economy -------------- ¶4. (C) According to a recent KMT poll, the KMT's approval rating among young voters surpassed that of the DPP for the first time. Ma Ying-jeou's spokesman Su Jun-pin told AIT that he attributed this increase to Ma himself and the image he projects, adding that Ma's popularity in central and southern Taiwan is on the rise as a result of his "Long-Stay" program there, which has been well received by many youth. KMT Youth Division Director Daniel Hsia told AIT that the party is working hard to increase its outreach efforts to TAIPEI 00001819 002 OF 003 young voters in order to transform young people's dissatisfaction with the DPP government into ballots. Ma's positive image helps these efforts, he noted. ¶5. (C) KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung underscored to AIT the significant role the economy will play in stimulating young voter support for the opposition party. Ma is planning to expand his outreach to young voters by placing heavy emphasis on the deteriorating state of Taiwan's economy, he explained. For example, the high university acceptance rate combined with the shortage of job opportunities upon graduation is a source of great frustration for many youth. Wu Nai-teh, on the other hand, downplayed young people's concerns over and interest in the economy, suggesting this approach will provide very little gain for the KMT. According to Wu, young people do not even understand the KMT's economic plan. DPP Approach: National Identity -------------- ¶6. (C) Political observers and party officials expect the DPP to use the debate over national identity to target young voters. DPP Youth Affairs Director Chou Yung-hong told AIT that according to DPP's most recent poll, voters aged 20-29 consider Taiwan's bid to join the UN more important than other age groups. Chou said that his organization plans to hold a variety of events and symposiums in the next couple of months to publicize the DPP's position on the national identity debate. Wu Nai-teh separately told AIT that the DPP has been trying to turn attention away from corruption and toward national identity in hopes of securing more young people's votes. ¶7. (C) A young professional working with the Third Society Party told AIT he expected the DPP's stress on national identity to be counterproductive, having little to no effect on today's youth. Many youth feel that continuing the discussion of national identity is increasingly irrelevant, he said, adding that the DPP's emphasis on identity will alienate many young voters rather than attract them. Chen Chi-yu, a legislative assistant, expressed concern to AIT about the DPP's disconnect with young voters. He noted that DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun recently voiced his fear that the party's disconnect with Taiwanese youth could be very costly to the party. In search of a Moderating force? -------------- ¶8. (C) Evidence of youth apathy towards politics can be found in their stand-off attitude toward political parties. According to one contact, young people view the KMT and the DPP in the same light and there is very little either party can do to persuade young people. Young people view politics as dirty and are most comfortable expressing their concerns through student movements rather than through traditional political channels, he added. ¶9. (C) Yun Wen-song, Deputy Director of the "Taiwan ThinkTank" suggested that young voters will likely look more favorably at smaller parties such as the new Third Society Party. According to Jou Yi-cheng, the Third Society views moderate young voters as its core constituency. He noted that the main challenge his party faces is turning youth apathy into public support for a relatively unknown party. This challenge is difficult, however, as the last youth rally the Third Society organized two weeks ago attracted only twenty student participants. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Although young people want reform, Taiwan's current highly polarized political environment has discouraged youth participation in politics. The DPP's past success in attracting young people was due to its youthful and reformist image, but this has been dealt a serious blow by the many corruption scandals and what is often seen as the party's poor record of leadership. The KMT's only hope for winning youth support lies with Ma and his ability to rejuvenate the TAIPEI 00001819 003 OF 003 KMT's stodgy, conservative image. Currently, however, neither party has an edge over the other with Taiwan's youth. ¶11. (U) This report was prepared by AIT Political Section Summer Intern Brandon Jackson. YOUNG