KMT HONORARY CHAIRMAN LIEN CHAN OFFERS TEPID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001661

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: KMT HONORARY CHAIRMAN LIEN CHAN OFFERS TEPID
SUPPORT FOR MA YING-JEOU, OPPOSITION TO UN REFERENDUM

REF: 2005 TAIPEI 4316

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young. Reason(s):
1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary. KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan on July 24
conveyed to the Director his lukewarm support for KMT
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, suggesting cracks in the
KMT political firmament that could undermine Ma's campaign.
Lien did not indicate concrete plans for continuing his
cross-Strait KMT-CCP initiative, and his apparent distance
from Ma Ying-jeou suggests this will not be a centerpiece of
Ma's cross-Strait platform. He obliquely acknowledged that
KMT failure to inform the Chen administration may have
prompted its refusal to permit PRC Taiwan Affairs Office
(TAO) Chairman Chen Yun-lin to visit Taiwan over the past two
years. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The Director called on KMT Honorary Chairman Lien
Chan at his Cross-Strait Peace and Development Foundation on
July 24. A relaxed, avuncular and soon-to-be first-time
grandparent Lien was accompanied by former TECRO Washington
Representative Stephen Chen, now a Senior Advisor at the
National Policy Foundation (NPF),a KMT think tank founded by
Lien.

Tepid Support for Ma Ying-jeou
--------------


3. (C) In response to the Director's inquiry about KMT
support for presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, Lien
responded, "We have no other choice; this is the man and this
is his hour." Therefore, he (Lien) had directed the NPF to
assist Ma and serve as Ma's brain trust. (Note: Stephen Chen
separately told AIT that NPF is deeply involved in Ma's
campaign and has analysts "at every one of Ma's stops"; AIT
notes these specialists do not actually accompany Ma and,
according to people close to Ma, are not an integral part of
his campaign. End Note.)


4. (C) Lien offered similarly tepid support for Ma's running
mate, Vincent Siew (Xiao Wanchang). Noting that Siew is "a
good man" with whom he had worked well for many years during
the KMT era and who had been his (Lien's) vice presidential
running mate in 2000, Lien noted cryptically that he and Siew
"sometimes see things differently." Lien said he expressed
"reservations" in 2002 as KMT Chairman when Siew told him he
wanted to contribute to the new Chen government as an
economic consultant. Siew, he concluded, "did not listen to
my advice."
KMT Cross-Strait Initiative
--------------


5. (C) Lien told the Director that the KMT's primary
cross-Strait policy is maintaining the status quo, a position
supported by the majority of Taiwan people who "do not want
to rock the boat." The Director asked Lien if he had
discussed China's ongoing drive to squeeze Taiwan's
international space during his three Beijing visits over the
past two years. Yes, Lien responded, increasing Taiwan
participation in international organizations was one of the
"five points" agreed during his April 2005 inaugural visit to
Beijing. Lien said he raised this issue with President Hu
Jintao during their one-on-one meeting, and Hu agreed the two
sides should work out a modus vivendi to resolve the issue of
Taiwan participation in international fora. In fact, Hu told
Lien, the PRC was planning to sign an MOU with the WHO
Secretariat the following week to allow greater Taiwan

SIPDIS
participation in WHO technical meetings and requiring only
post facto notification to Beijing, vice the previous
requirement of advance permission from Beijing. (Note: This
agreement is regularly lambasted by DPP leaders as a secret
agreement intended to sharply limit Taiwan's participation in
WHO activities. End Note.)


6. (C) The Director reminded Lien that while the KMT-CCP
dialogue has been a step forward, the U.S. has long urged
Beijing to talk directly with the elected government of
Taiwan. Lien responded that he fully agreed and -- in
something of a non sequitur -- explained that one of the

TAIPEI 00001661 002 OF 002


"five points" was to establish a twice-annual series of
KMT-CCP forums on politics and security and on economics.
The two sides had commenced with economics, he explained, on
the assumption that this would be less controversial. Taiwan
authorities, however, summarily rejected the KMT application
for TAO Director Chen Yunlin to visit Taiwan for the first
forum in Fall 2005. Upon questioning, however, Lien
acknowledged that "maybe we surprised MAC" (Taiwan's Mainland
Affairs Council) and "perhaps our application was too
sudden." (Note: MAC officials at the time told AIT that the
KMT had not attempted to prepare the way for the PRC visit
applications, leading them to conclude this was a political
ploy by the KMT. See reftel.) Lien insisted the KMT gave MAC
more lead time the second time around in August 2006, but the
66 TAO visit applications never got past the Interior
Ministry. "What else could we do?" Lien asked, throwing up
his hands. (Note: Taiwan's sudden loss of diplomatic partner
Chad to Beijing last Summer effectively scuttled this visit.
End Note.)


7. (C) The Director asked Lien how he viewed Beijing's
attitude toward Taiwan based on his three visits. "I don't
think Beijing leaders are stupid enough to have designs on
Taiwan other than maintaining the status quo," Lien
responded. Taiwan's current situation, he said, fully serves
the interests of the PRC. The danger, he noted, is that Chen
could put the PRC in an impossible predicament and force it
to act. Consequently, he urged the Director, the U.S. should
give President Chen a clear, precise message on the UN
referendum that leaves Chen no wriggle room for lawyerly
wordsmithing.

Comment
--------------


8. The relaxed Lien appears to have accepted that he is now
on margins of KMT and Taiwan politics. He did not indicate
interest in involving himself further in KMT internal
politics, particularly the DISCORD and mutual distrust
between Ma and Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng.
Lien's damning-by-faint-praise endorsement of Ma Ying-jeou's
candidacy indicates there remain deep divisions within the
KMT that could undermine Ma's chances in the presidential
election next March.
YOUNG