Think Tank Director Suggests 2008 Presidential Election to

UNCLAS TAIPEI 001578 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP, EAP/PD FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: Think Tank Director Suggests 2008 Presidential Election to be "Defining Event" for Taiwan's Future REF: A) 2006 Taipei 0660 B) 2006 Taipei 4168 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Dr. Soong Hseik-wen, Director of National Chung Cheng University's new Institute of Strategy and International Affairs (ISIA),told AIT/K that the Institute's main purpose is to promote Taiwan's democratization, localization, and security. Dr. Soong stressed the importance of the 2008 presidential election as a "defining event" for Taiwan's future. If Taiwan wants to pursue independence, he argued, it must do so in the next several years before China has grown into a superpower. End Summary. Institute of Strategy and International Affairs -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) Funded by the central government in cooperation with National Chung Cheng University, ISIA was founded in 2006 to promote and support Taiwan democratization, localization, and security. Although the Institute supports Taiwan independence, it acknowledges the possibility of unification with China, Dr. Soong told AIT/K. ISIA considers Taiwan currently to be an independent state and identifies the PRC as a security threat, not only to the island, but to East Asia as a whole. Therefore, cross-Strait relations and U.S. foreign policy remain high on the Institute's research priorities. The Institute receives partial funding from Taiwan's Ministry of Defense. ¶3. (SBU) In addition to playing an academic role, Dr. Soong and the Institute also serve as consultants to government committees in order to facilitate an ongoing dialogue between scholars and government officials. Dr. Soong told AIT/K that ISIA soon will take a further step and play an active role in the 2008 elections, though he declined to define what he meant by "active role." Taiwanese Identity -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Democratization is fueling Taiwanese identity and independence, Dr. Soong said. The DPP has strengthened its position by unifying the four different ethnicities on the island (Taiwanese, Hakka, Aborigine, and Mainlander) under one "Taiwanese identity" umbrella. The DPP government has used a variety of tactics, such as new education policies regarding language education and history textbooks to establish a cohesive Taiwan identity (see ref A). Dr. Soong predicted that nationalism will continue to grow in Taiwan and will manifest itself in a serious push for independence (see ref B). ¶5. (SBU) Taiwan's democratization, its fight for international space and the continual growth of China are all affecting the current cross-Strait balance, according to Dr. Soong. Dr. Soong suggested that the effects of these developments will be reflected in the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. 2008 Elections -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Dr. Soong said that what is at stake in the 2008 elections will only become clear as time goes on. Currently, the economic and independence issues are competing for the spotlight in the presidential election campaign. Dr. Soong predicted that referendums will be held related to these two issues, and the people will decide where Taiwan's priorities should lie. ¶7. (SBU) Although now not sufficiently unified to take any serious steps toward independence, the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, Dr. Soong asserted. If Taiwan wants to pursue independence, Dr. Soong suggested, it must act within the next five years. Otherwise, he argued, China will have grown into such a superpower that "Taiwan's cry for independence will be silenced." The small window of opportunity ensures the 2008 presidential election will be a "defining event" for Taiwan's future, Dr. Soong predicted. Pierre-Louis Young