Taipei Economic Brief for June 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001575 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/EP USTR FOR ALTBACH AND STRATFORD USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/WZARIT TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF GOVERNORS, SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN, AND NEW YORK FRB MARI BOLIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON PINR TW SUBJECT: Taipei Economic Brief for June 2007 ¶1. This cable summarizes selected June 2007 economic events in Taiwan: --Taiwan's Economic Performance Improved --Taiwan Approves IC Packing Firms' China Investment --Taiwan Passes 2007 Central Budget --Individual Debt Resolution Law --Incentives for Biotech Industry --Retiree Service Market to Expand --Green Energy Output to Reach US$20 billion by 2015 --Incentives to Attract Foreign Expatriate Specialists Taiwan's Economic Performance Improved -------------- ¶2. Taiwan has improved its economic performance in the second quarter (Q2) of this year with the island's real GDP y-o-y growth increasing to 4.4%, up from 4.15% in Q1, according to Taiwan official estimates. Imports of capital goods, an indicator of investment, reversed a decline in Q1 to growth in Q2. During April-May, foreign investment also reported a 75% y-o-y growth, and manufacturing production growth accelerated, although export growth slowed. In the first five months of 2007, the inflation rate remained below one percent, and the unemployment rate of 3.8% set a six-year low for the Jan-May period. ¶3. Both official and private think thanks are optimistic about Taiwan's economy for the rest of this year. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics predicted Taiwan's year-on-year economic growth will rise from 4.15% in Q1 to 4.67% in Q4. Academia Sinica expects an even higher growth rate of 4.79%. A survey published by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research in late June showed 40% of manufacturing firms anticipated better performance over the next six months, while 18% predicted worse performance. According to Taiwan's central bank, booming real estate and stock markets, together with resolution of delinquent credit/cash card debt problems, will stimulate private consumption. Exports will continue to expand as demand from Japan, Europe, and China will remain strong. Taiwan Approves IC Packing Firms' China Investment -------------- -------------- ¶4. The Investment Commission approved China investment applications from four IC packing companies on June 28, including Siliconware Precision Instrument, Walton Advanced Engineering, Greatek Electronics, and Advanced Semiconductor Engineering. Their combined investment in China will be US$99.6 million. Meanwhile, these four companies promised to invest NT$75 billion (US$2.3 billion) in Taiwan, and their Taiwan projects are expected to create 6,500 jobs. In April 2006, Taiwan lifted the ban on investment in China by low-level integrated circuit (IC) packaging firms. Taiwan Passes 2007 Central Budget -------------- ¶5. Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) passed the 2007 central budget on June 15. The LY cut 2.1% in funding proposed by the Executive Yuan (EY) for 2007 administrative programs. The 2007 cuts included a 40% slash in special allowance (pocket money) for the President, a 20% slash in information technology equipment (hardware) procurement, and an 18% cut in outsourcing funding. The LY removed the 2007 privatization program by cutting NT$20.1 billion (US$609 million) from sales of equity shares in state-owned enterprises. The budget legislation passed 197 days after the November 30, 2006 deadline set by Taiwan's Budget Law. According to official estimates, due to the delay in budget legislation and the consequent delay in funding major public constructions projects, Taiwan's real GDP growth in the TAIPEI 00001575 002 OF 003 first half of this year was 0.25-0.3 percentage points below the level if the funding would have been available. Individual Debt Resolution Law -------------- ¶6. Taiwan completed legislation of the Individual Debt Resolution Law (IDRL),which goes effective in early 2008. The law, designed mainly to assist delinquent credit/cash card debtors, will permit insolvent individuals to reschedule debt payments and make payments covering only 20% of their total outstanding unsecured debt with long payment terms. When that portion of the debt is repaid, the debtors can request the court dissolve the remainder of the debt obligation. With banking sector insistence, individuals already reaching rescheduling agreements with banks will be excluded from the coverage of the law. A provision covering mortgage loans was also deleted. Observers believe the law will erode the banking sector's profitability and lead to banks tightening unsecured loans. Incentives for Biotech Industry -------------- ¶7. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) agreed to a draft law entitled the "Statute for Development of Biotechnology and New Medicine Industry" proposed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The draft law will extend tax incentives for the biotechnology industry after the Statute for Upgrading Industries expires in 2009. According to the draft law, investors in biotech and pharmaceutical industries will continue to be entitled to five-year tax credits for their R&D and training programs. New in the draft, the tax credits will start from when the ventures begin reporting profits. Also new, tax deductions will be available to corporate shareholders for their investments in biotechnology and development of new medicines. High-level professional and technical experts in this sector will be permitted to defer taxes on stock dividends until the shares are sold. Retiree Service Market to Expand -------------- ¶8. The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) published a retiree service market study which concluded a retiree service market is emerging in Taiwan, as the population reaching the retirement age of 65 will increase from 2.3 million today to an estimated 2.9 million ten years from now. Compared to other age groups, retirees are richer and will require more health care, safe and comfortable housing, and travel services. A sharp increase in spending by retirees will lead to substantial growth of medical care and related sectors, health food, and travel industries. CEPD estimates their growth will create 83,000 jobs by 2015. Green Energy Output to Reach US$20 billion by 2015 -------------- -------------- ¶9. In early June 2007, Economic Minister Steve Chen reported Taiwan's energy policy to the Presidential Office. By 2015, Taiwan's target for enewable energy output will reach US$20 billion, or 3% of the global total. The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) has set a goal that by 2010, electricity generated from renewable energy will increase to 512.9 kilowatts, accounting for 10% of Taiwan's total installed capacity. Renewable energy development will be focused on wind power, solar photovoltaic, terrestrial heat, hydraulic power, and biomass fuels in the short term and move on to hydrogen energy and fuel cells in the long term. Currently, 168 solar photovoltaic power systems are under construction. Beginning this year, city buses in Kaohsiung and Chiayi County will run on TAIPEI 00001575 003 OF 003 bio-diesel fuel. Gas stations in Taoyuan and Chiayi will begin to supply B1 diesel fuel, and those in Taipei City will supply E3 ethanol gasoline. B1 diesel fuel will be available island-wide in 2008, and B2 diesel fuel in 2010, and E3 ethanol gas in 2011. By 2010, solar cells, biomass and wind generation will provide approximately 3.48 billion kilowatt hours for nearly 870,000 households in Taiwan. Incentives to Attract Foreign Expatriate Specialists -------------- -------------- ¶10. On June 27, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEDP) approved a set of measures to attract foreign expatriate specialists to fill a high-tech labor shortage of 34,000 over the next three years. With these measures, Taiwan will provide foreign expatriate specialists tax incentives and permit their PRC-national family members join them in Taiwan and enroll in local schools. Tax rates on stock dividends distributed to foreign expatriate specialists (currently 25%) and capital gains from property transactions (currently 35%) will be lowered to 20%. Household allowances (including air travel, home leave, moving expenses, rent, and school fees) paid by companies will be considered tax free. (Note: CEPD may be currently revising these proposed measures to cover a more broadly defined group of expatriates.) YOUNG