KMT VICE CHAIRMAN JOHN KUAN ON MA CAMPAIGN, UN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001562

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: KMT VICE CHAIRMAN JOHN KUAN ON MA CAMPAIGN, UN

REFERENDUM, AND PAN-BLUE COOPERATION,

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT Vice Chairman John Kuan told the Deputy
Director on June 29 that ethnic Taiwanese vice presidential
candidate Vincent Siew brings economic expertise and broad
personal popularity to Ma Ying-jeou's ticket. KMT
Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng will help Ma's
campaign in exchange for the top spot on the KMT ballot for
at-large LY seats, Kuan predicted. The PFP, which did better
than it expected in securing nominations for its legislative
candidates, is cooperating with the KMT, and the two parties
could unify before the LY elections next January, Kuan
suggested. According to Kuan, the KMT has launched its own
referendum on joining the UN simply to counter the effects of
the DPP referendum on the issue. Kuan informed DDIR that Ma
hopes to visit the U.S. in September. End Summary.

VP Candidate Vincent Siew
--------------


2. (C) KMT Vice Chairman John Kuan told DDIR on June 29 that
he believes KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has made
a wise choice in selecting Vincent Siew (Hsiao Wan-chang) as
his running mate, noting that Siew always came out first in
the internal polls the party used to guide its vice
presidential candidate search. Former Premier Siew, who is
given much credit for Taiwan's economic success, has no
political enemies and enjoys favorable popularity ratings
throughout Taiwan, even the Deep Green south, Kuan explained.
An ethnic Taiwanese born in Chiayi County, Siew will
especially help Ma attract "native" Taiwanese votes, he
suggested. (Note: In a separate conversation, People First
Party (PFP) legislator Daniel Hwang (Yih-jiao) predicted that
Siew, who has worked with Taiwan's business leaders for four
decades, will also help Ma raise funds for the campaign. End
Note.)

Wang to Retain Position as LY Speaker
--------------


3. (C) Kuan said that Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang
Jin-pyng has been quieter, now that he is no longer a
potential vice presidential candidate. When he is asked,
Wang will offer genuine support to Ma's presidential
campaign, Kuan predicted. In exchange for his support, Wang
will retain his top spot on the KMT's list of at-large LY
candidates, thus assuring that he will hold on to is powerful
position as speaker in the next LY that will take office in
February. No one in the KMT will oppose this arrangement,
Kuan added, because they know it is best for party unity and
stability. According to Kuan, relations between Ma, Wang,
and Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan are good. The KMT is
"more cohesive and unified" than most party members had
expected it to be at this stage of the campaign.

Beating the Ethnicity Card
--------------


4. (C) The two main issues during the presidential campaign
will be ethnic identity and corruption, Kuan suggested. As
it has in the past, the DPP will try to stigmatize the KMT as
an "alien regime" led by "mainlanders," including Ma
Ying-jeou himself. If Ma is to win, Kuan continued, he must
convince voters that he and the KMT are "connected to
Taiwan." This is the point of Ma's "long stay" program,
where, over the next four months, the KMT candidate will live
in each of Taiwan's counties for 3 weeks. As the election
nears, Ma will spend most of his time in the south, where KMT
support is weakest. This strategy may not gain Ma many votes
from staunch DPP supporters, Kuan conceded, but it might
reduce the loss of swing votes to Ma's DPP opponent, Frank
Hsieh.

Optimistic about Ma Trial Outcome
--------------


5. (C) Kuan suggested Ma might escape conviction in his
ongoing trial for alleged misuse of his special Taipei

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mayoral account because "Taiwan's current political
atmosphere" favors Ma. Without elaborating, Kuan stated that
the High Court recently issued several decisions which will
help President Chen defend himself against charges of
corruption once he leaves office. Since the courts have
given some space to President Chen, they must also give
leeway to Ma in order to show the public that they remain
politically impartial.

Counter-Referendum on UN
--------------


6. (C) Kuan said that the DPP referendum on joining the UN
under the name "Taiwan" would work against the KMT in two
ways. First, no one can oppose the referendum for fear of
being accused of "not loving Taiwan." Second, if the DPP
referendum is included on the presidential ballot, it almost
certainly will increase Green voter turnout. In response to
the DPP referendum, the KMT decided to offer its own version
of a UN referendum in order to mobilize its own voters and to
deflect accusations that the party does not love Taiwan. The
KMT version proposes applying to the UN and other
international organizations using whatever name might
increase Taiwan's chances of being accepted, including but
not limited to "Taiwan." Kuan argued that the KMT
referendum, unlike the DPP version, will serve U.S. interests
because it decouples Taiwan's international participation
from the sensitive "name change" issue. (Note: In a separate
conversation, KMT legislator Su Chi argued to AIT that the
party had no choice but to endorse some kind of referendum to
expand Taiwan's membership in international organizations
because it was vulnerable to DPP attack after years of having
done nothing to regain a place for Taiwan in the UN. End
Note.)

Pan-Blue Unity
--------------


7. (C) Cooperation between the KMT and its putative pan-Blue
ally the People First Party (PFP) "couldn't be better," Kuan
told the DDIR. The KMT has agreed to name eight PFP
legislators as district candidates in the upcoming LY
election, and may agree to two or three additional at-large
candidates. The PFP "did better than expected," Kuan
continued, and therefore "is not making any noise." Although
there is no formal written agreement, Kuan added, there is a
tacit understanding that all of the PFP LY candidates will be
running under the KMT banner. The KMT would like the two
parties to unite before the election, and this might happen,
Kuan suggested. (Note: In a separate conversation, PFP
legislator and Taichung County candidate Daniel Hwang
(Yih-jiao) confirmed that all of the PFP candidates
understand that KMT financial and organizational support will
be conditioned on their running as KMT candidates. Hwang
added that PFP Chairman James Soong might be willing to
consolidate the two parties before the election, but did not
elaborate on what Soong might demand in return. End Note.)

Cross-Strait Relations Under a Ma Administration
-------------- ---


8. (C) DDIR asked Kuan how Ma expects to reduce cross-Strait
tension if he is elected president. Because the KMT does not
promote independence, it will not antagonize China, Kuan
responded. In return for rejecting independence, the KMT
will ask China to demonstrate goodwill by removing missiles
currently aimed at Taiwan. Kuan added that an unnamed
high-level PRC contact had advised him personally that
missile removal was "negotiable," as long as the KMT accepted
the "1992 Consensus" on one China.

Ma Hopes to Visit U.S. in September
--------------


9. (C) Kuan told DDIR that Ma would like to visit the United
States, most probably in September, after Congress returns
from its summer recess. Such a trip would be very important
for Ma, Kuan stressed. DDIR responded that the U.S. would
welcome a visit by Ma.

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