DPP AND KMT CONTEST BATTLEGROUND COUNTIES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001172

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP AND KMT CONTEST BATTLEGROUND COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL TAIWAN


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Changhua, Nantou, and Yunlin are key swing
counties in central Taiwan where 8 seats will be up for grabs
in upcoming legislative elections. The three counties will
also produce 10 percent of the votes in the critical 2008
presidential election between the ruling DPP's Frank Hsieh
and the opposition KMT's Ma Ying-jeou. The pan-Blue slightly
outnumbers the pan-Green in the region's current Legislative
Yuan (LY) contingent. Sluggish economic growth in this
largely agricultural area may be dampening voter confidence
in the DPP, which could help the KMT in the upcoming
legislative elections to be held in December 2007 or January

2008. Local KMT officials expect their party to take 4-8 of
the total 8 seats, while the DPP predicts it may win 4 seats.
End Summary.

Fruit Exports, Local Ties Versus Taiwan Identity
-------------- ---


2. (C) AIT met recently with Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin
county KMT and DPP party leaders to discuss local views on
the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. While
northern and southern Taiwan generally vote Blue and Green
respectively, these three counties in central Taiwan are more
evenly split between the two camps and are likely to emerge
as an important battleground in the upcoming presidential and
legislative elections. While two of the three counties voted
DPP in the 2004 presidential election, the pan-Blue narrowly
came out ahead in the 2004 legislative elections, winning 9
seats compared to 8 for the pan-Green and 3 for independents
under the previous multi-member district system.


3. (C) Local KMT and DPP leaders expect particularly intense
competition this year as electoral reforms will reduce the
number of legislators in this region from 20 to 8. Contacts
from both parties told AIT that "bread-and-butter" issues,
especially fruit and produce exports, HEALTH care, and
education will be key voter concerns. Sluggish economic
growth in these largely agricultural areas, which contrasts
sharply with the booming economy of neighboring high-tech
oriented Taichung, may be dampening voter confidence in the
ruling DPP, to the benefit of the KMT.


4. (C) Ideological issues such as ethnic identity,
independence, and constitutional amendments may also find
resonance with voters when they elect their next president in
January or March 2008. When it comes to legislative
elections in this region, however, the dictum that "all
politics are local" holds true. Local factions, personal
relationships, and vote buying continue to play an important
role in the rural heartland of central Taiwan. Cross-Strait
trade and tourism are also important factors since produce
exports and tourism are important in the regional economy.
KMT contacts told AIT that voters are frustrated with the
slow development of cross-Strait relations under the DPP
government.

Gearing Up for Battle
--------------


5. (C) Combined, the three counties will have 8 of the total
73 district seats in the new LY to be elected in December
2007 or January 2008. KMT officials expect to win at least 4
seats and optimistically talk of a possible sweep in all 8
districts, while the DPP anticipates winning at least 4
seats. Both KMT and DPP officials predicted that the smaller
pan-Blue People First Party (PFP) and pan-Green Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) will lose their legislative
representation in the region because the new single-member
election district format favors the large parties. At this
early stage, contacts from the two major parties also
registered concerns that some disgruntled candidates who have
lost primary elections might decide to run as independents,
which could split the pan-Blue or pan-Green vote in ONE or
more districts, leading to upsets.


6. (C) Changhua is the most developed and populous of the

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three central Taiwan counties. The KMT has traditionally
enjoyed a modest edge over the DPP here, with the pan-Blue
taking 5 seats compared to the pan-Green's 3 seats in the
2004 legislative elections. While the DPP won the 2004
presidential race by 4 percent, it lost the 2005 county
magistrate election. Local KMT party officials expressed
confidence they could win all 4 legislative seats, but
acknowledged some weakness in particular districts. DPP
officials told AIT their best chances are in two districts,
one of which the KMT identified as an area of concern. In
all four districts, there are potential splits in ONE or both
camps.


7. (C) The economy of Nantou, Taiwan's only landlocked
county, is centered on the Sun Moon Lake tourist industry.
Both KMT and DPP officials estimate that 55% of Nantou voters
are Blue versus 45% Green. Nonetheless, the pan-Blue and
pan-Green each won 2 LY seats in Nantou in 2004. With
redistricting, the voter population is now split into two
districts, ONE Blue and ONE Green. The Blue district will
almost certainly go to incumbent "ballot machine" Wu Den-yih,
who is also the KMT's Secretary General. Currently, Wu faces
no challengers either inside or outside his party. In the
Green district, two DPP legislators are battling in a
primary. The KMT candidate, Director General of the Nantou
Tourism Bureau, faces a tough challenge in this Green
stronghold, even with help from Wu Den-yih.


8. (C) Local factions play a particularly prominent role in
Yunlin, the poorest of the three counties. Yunlin voted 60%
to 40% in favor of the DPP ticket in the 2004 presidential
election, and also elected a DPP magistrate in 2005. In the
2004 LY elections, the pan-Green won 3 of 6 seats compared to
2 for the pan-Blue. ONE of Yunlin's two districts is a
stronghold of the KMT-linked Chang family faction, and is
therefore likely to go to the KMT despite its decision to
field a young and inexperienced candidate. Although the
other district is pro-Green, the TSU's plan to field a
candidate could split the Green vote and hand the election to
rising KMT star Hsu Shu-po. Hsu's rival has threatened to
run as an independent if he loses the primary, which would
split the pan-Blue vote. Whichever camp does the best job in
unifying its forces may win this election.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Traditional pork-barrel and factional politics will
play an important role in the upcoming elections in this
competitive central Taiwan region. If the presidential and
legislative elections are held together on the same day in
January 2008, this area will be a key battleground in the
contest for power between the ruling DPP and opposition KMT.
Races in central Taiwan will also test the ability of the two
major parties to unify their forces by preventing splits and
defections.
YOUNG