DPP CHAIRMAN YU SHYI-KUN DISCUSSES ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001171

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRMAN YU SHYI-KUN DISCUSSES ELECTION
POLITICS AND TAIWAN IDENTITY


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun told the Director
on May 24 that President Chen will work closely together with
former Premier Frank Hsieh, the party's presidential
candidate, to ensure the DPP wins in 2008. While Hsieh won
the primary by unifying forces within the party unhappy with
President Chen, Premier Su Tseng-chang, and the New Tide
faction that supported Su, the entire party is now unifying
behind Hsieh. The DPP will push Taiwan identity themes
throughout the campaign to highlight the contrast with the
KMT, Yu suggested, adding that he believes partisan
polarization has eliminated the moderate middle ground in
Taiwan politics. The Director urged Taiwan to set aside
partisan politics to pass a robust defense budget. Yu
emphasized that the DPP shares the same interest but doubted
that the impasse in the legislature would be resolved in the
near future. End Summary.

Hsieh Rides Anti-New Tide Wave to Victory
--------------


2. (C) The Director met on May 24 with DPP Chairman Yu
Shyi-kun, one of four candidates who ran for the party's
presidential nomination, to discuss election politics and
Taiwan identity issues. Analyzing the recently concluded
presidential primary, Yu explained that former Premier Frank
Hsieh (Chang-ting) won by unifying forces within the party
dissatisfied with President Chen, then Premier Su Tseng-chang
and the New Tide faction, which supported Su. Yu suggested
that the disciplined and aggressive former New Tide faction
had over the years made too many enemies within the party.
New Tide's wavering in the face of last year's "Red Shirt"
protests calling for President Chen's resignation, moreover,
raised further doubts about the faction's loyalty to the
party. Yu emphasized that the decision to exclude pan-Blue
voters from public opinion polls used in the legislative
primaries will not necessarily produce weaker DPP candidates
with limited public appeal, but rather helps to generate
candidates who more closely represent the party's "core
values."

President Chen's Role in Upcoming Campaign
--------------


3. (C) Yu told the Director that President Chen will "work
as one" with Hsieh to make sure the DPP wins in 2008, and he
discounted the possibility that policies or electoral tactics
pursued by Chen could undermine Hsieh's campaign. Yu added
that the nature and extent of Chen's participation in the
presidential campaign will be decided by the raw calculation
of whether it boosts Hsieh's electoral prospects.


4. (C) Yu explained that President Chen decided to appoint
Chang Chun-hsiung to the Premiership again because Chang
would not need time to learn the ropes and could focus on
running the government in a way that would help lead the DPP
to electoral victory. Chang is congenial and enjoys good
relations with Hsieh, Yu observed. Yu expects the
Presidential Office, Executive Yuan, and the DPP to work
closely with Hsieh's campaign team throughout the election
season. Yu noted that the selection of a vice presidential
running mate will be Hsieh's to make, with the most important
consideration being choosing someone who adds value to the
ticket. Both former Premier Su Tseng-chang and former Vice
Premier Yeh Chu-lan are potential candidates and would help
Hsieh, Yu added.

DPP Closing Gap on KMT
--------------


5. (C) Yu noted that the DPP supports holding legislative
and presidential elections concurrently on either January 19
or 20, 2008 to reduce costs and boost the party's electoral
prospects. The DPP believes joint elections would raise
voter turnout, especially for the legislative races, giving
the DPP a small advantage over the KMT. Initially, the KMT
supported joint elections because it enjoys advantages in

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financial, grassroots, and local organization, Yu noted, but
its current stance is unclear as the party faces a leadership
"crisis." The split between Ma Ying-jeou and Wang Jin-pyng
and the problem of Ma's indictment and ongoing trial could
undermine its organizational advantages in the election, Yu
noted. Such internal division, Yu pointed out, contrasts
markedly with unity within the DPP. Despite holding an open,
heated primary, all three losing DPP candidates quickly
rallied behind Frank Hsieh within 24 hours of his victory and
pledged their support for his candidacy.


6. (C) Yu predicted that Hsieh will be able to defeat Ma
Ying-jeou. Internal DPP polls indicate that Ma leads Hsieh
by a 10 percent margin, but that gap has been narrowing over
the past several weeks as the DPP show of unity reinstilled
confidence in the party. Yu quipped that Ma's ratings go
down whenever he does anything of substance, while his
ratings go up when he "does nothing," such as taking a
bicycle tour around the island as he did recently. In the
long-term, Yu predicted Ma will be hurt by the KMT's decision
to hold passage of the annual budget "hostage" to the
controversial Central Election Commission (CEC)
reorganization bill. Although early polling indicated the
public blamed the DPP for holding up the budget, that has now
changed. Most people now see the KMT as the obstructionists
in the legislature. The KMT's decision to continue defending
the legacy of former President and dictator Chiang Kai-shek
also damages Ma, Yu added.

Taiwan Identity Key to Victory in 2008 . . .
--------------


7. (C) Turning to DPP electoral strategy, Yu said the DPP's
goal is to translate the increase in Taiwanese identity into
more votes for the party. A rise in the percentage of the
population who identify themselves as Taiwanese from 30 to 68
percent over the past decade means that appealing to Taiwan
identity will be key to winning the presidential election.
Yu said that Blue-Green confrontation has eliminated the
moderate middle ground in this presidential contest and
therefore the DPP will push identity-related themes to
highlight the contrast with the KMT. This will be Ma's
Achilles heel, Yu predicted, because Ma identifies with
"China" and wants unification, hence voters who identify with
Taiwan will turn from him in the end.

. . . But Who Am I?
--------------


8. (C) Yu defined "Taiwanese" in subjective terms as those
who "identify" with Taiwan, irrespective of birthplace or
provincial origin. Yu said he, for example, considers
himself a "Taiwanese of Chinese descent" (huayi Taiwanren),
but added that he may not necessarily be ethnically or
racially "Han Chinese" (Hanren). Yu claimed that Beijing
conducted genetic studies in southeast China aimed at proving
that Taiwanese are Chinese, but then suppressed the results
when they showed that the population of the region derived
not from the Han ethnic group, but from the Yue people, who
populate northern Southeast Asia as well as southern China.
Yu, who noted he had submitted his own DNA for testing,
indicated he was hoping to find aboriginal and other non-Han
elements in his DNA, contrary to his China-based family
genealogy, which he no longer believed. (Note: We have
heard previously that a good number of the DPP leadership has
been undergoing DNA testing in hopes of having a politically
correct pedigree. Some DPP officials have proudly revealed
their "mixed" heritage to AIT. End note.)

Prospects Dim for Passing Annual Budget
--------------


9. (C) The Director underscored the importance of Taiwan
passing a robust defense budget, which has been held up by
the DPP-KMT deadlock in the legislature. Yu emphasized that
the DPP also wants to see the annual budget passed, but is
unwilling to cave into KMT attempts to hold the budget
"hostage" to the CEC reforms. According to Yu, pressure is
growing within the KMT to pass the budget as some legislators

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are arguing that failure to act is hurting local KMT
interests. While Speaker Wang likely wants to see the budget
passed, only Ma has the ability to influence the KMT caucus
on this issue. Doubting that Ma would be willing to do so,
Yu predicted that Premier Chang will not be able to resolve
the impasse.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Frank Hsieh, Yu Shyi-kun, President Chen, and other
party leaders all share the same goal of producing a DPP
victory in the 2008 presidential election. While Yu and
others are promoting Taiwan identity issues to mobilize the
DPP base, as well as to hold their candidate to core "green"
issues, we expect Hsieh to play a more moderate hand in an
effort to appeal to potential swing voters. Coordinating the
differing campaign agendas of party heavyweights will be key
to the DPP's efforts to win in 2008.
YOUNG