FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN LIN I-HSIUNG ON DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001129

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2032
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FORMER DPP CHAIRMAN LIN I-HSIUNG ON DOMESTIC
POLITICS

REF: 06 TAIPEI 2543

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Former DPP Chairman and respected party
elder Lin I-hsiung told the Director on May 16 that, despite
a contentious presidential primary, the DPP will rally behind
candidate Frank Hsieh. Lin predicted Hsieh will beat KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008 presidential election,
because, in Lin's view, the Taiwanese majority in the KMT do
not identify with Ma and furthermore the KMT has resisted
democratization and localization since becoming the
opposition party in 2000. Lin hoped that the new president,
either Hsieh or Ma, will improve political cooperation by
serving as president of all the people rather than as a party
leader in confrontation with other parties. Lin believed
that President Chen forced out Premier Su Tseng-chang for his
own political purposes, as he had previously forced out his
other premiers. Lin argued that an effective referendum law
would strengthen Taiwan's democracy, ending the recurrent
stalemates in the Legislative Yuan (LY),as contentious
issues could be submitted directly to the people for
decision. End Summary.


2. (C) In a meeting with the Director on May 16, former DPP
Chairman and party elder Lin I-hsiung predicted that DPP
candidate Frank Hsieh will win the 2008 presidential election
against the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou. Lin noted he had met with
Hsieh the previous day, but added he had no plans to join
Hsieh's campaign. Members of the public like himself should
avoid direct involvement in the inter-party fray, Lin
observed. During the campaign season he planned to urge
political leaders to move toward greater cooperation in the
future. Noting that the KMT has a strong organization at the
local level, Lin predicted that it will do better than the
DPP in the upcoming Legislative Yuan (LY) elections. He also
thought that the reduction in number of legislators and shift
to single representative districts should improve the overall
quality of legislators.


3. (C) Lin expressed hope the current level of intense
confrontation between the KMT and DPP would ease after the
presidential election. The Central Election Commission (CEC)
should not be a major issue, Lin observed, but the KMT and
DPP are treating it as such to gain political advantage for
themselves in the presidential election. Lin hoped that
Hsieh or Ma, whoever was elected, would serve as a president
of all the people rather than as the leader of one political
party in confrontation with another. The DPP and KMT share
common views on many policy issues, Lin observed. Therefore
the two parties should be able to work together in the
Legislative Yuan (LY),as Frank Hsieh has suggested. While
DPP and KMT ideals and ultimate goals differ, their positions
on maintaining the current status quo and not allowing Taiwan
to be ruled by China are similar, Lin added.


4. (C) Democratization and localization have been the two
main political trends in Taiwan over the last two decades,
Lin observed. Former KMT President Lee Teng-hui supported
these trends, but since losing power in 2000, the KMT
leadership has resisted democratization and localization.
However, continuously confronting the DPP in the LY and
blocking the annual budget has hurt rather than helped the
KMT politically, Lin argued. Ma Ying-jeou represents the
aging Mainlander wing of the KMT, which dominates the party's
top ranks, but the local level Taiwanese party leaders and
members do not identify with Ma. Asked about KMT LY Speaker
Wang Jin-pyng's difficult relations with Ma, Lin speculated
that Wang is waiting for a possible opportunity in case Ma is
convicted in his trial for corruption. While Ma may be
convicted for violating the law in his use of the Taipei
mayoral special funds, this is a problem with the system
rather than corruption, Lin suggested, adding that many other
officials could face the same problem.


5. (C) Referring to Premier Su's rather abrupt resignation,
Lin said there was no need for President Chen to change the
premier at this time. The DPP has a strong tradition of

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lining up behind its candidates, and Su would have worked
with primary winner Frank Hsieh. In this case as before, Lin
observed, President Chen had wanted to change the premier for
his own political purposes. None of Chen's many changes of
premier had been warranted by the political situation
confronting the premier. Lin believed President Chen would
work with Hsieh in the interests of winning the presidential
election, but acknowledged Chen might promote some
fundamentalist ideas to gain Deep Green votes. Despite
Chen's past "surprises," he is not an extremist, Lin argued,
citing the moderation apparent in Chen's 2000 presidential
campaign.


6. (C) Lin said he did not see a need for hasty action in
removing statues of Chiang Kai-shek. The truth about
Taiwan's history needs to be brought out. Gradually, when a
broad public consensus emerges, then it will be possible to
make decisions about issues such as how to view Chiang
Kai-shek.


7. (C) The ongoing turmoil between the KMT and DPP in the
Legislative Yuan shows that Taiwan needs further work to make
its democracy effective, Lin said. Taiwan should have a
government system that is clearly either parliamentary or
presidential, with appropriate political mechanisms to
resolve differences or stalemates. Lin added that he favored
a parliamentary system. In addition, Taiwan should have a
workable referendum law to replace the current restrictive
law that the KMT designed to make referendums difficult. If
the political parties in the LY reach an impasse, then the
issue should be submitted directly to a popular referendum.
Lin predicted that having an effective referendum law would
greatly reduce legislative stalemates. On sensitive issues,
such as those involving sovereignty, the referendum threshold
could be set high, 70 or even 80 percent, to prevent
ill-considered moves that could provoke cross-Strait
tensions.


8. (C) The DPP states its goals, Lin said, and the KMT
should not be afraid of saying its goal is unification. It
should make the case to the people what benefits unification
would bring, for example, peace and expanded business or
other opportunities on the mainland. China should also
explain the benefits of unification to the people of Taiwan.
(Comment: Lin's point seemed to be that the people of Taiwan
will be able to make rational choices about their future in a
peaceful atmosphere and democratic process if they are given
the information they need to make such choices. End Comment.)


9. (C) Beijing has adopted the wrong strategy toward Taiwan,
Lin argued. Instead of resorting to counterproductive
threats, China should focus on attracting Taiwan. China is
like Taiwan 30 years ago. Those responsible for Taiwan
policy have a "China Chauvinist Mentality," and moderates do
not dare challenge them. PRC hardliners are mistaken to
claim that Taiwan is a base for U.S. imperialism. China's
influence in Taiwan will far outweigh that of the U.S. if
cross-Strait relations are good, Lin suggested. Lin agreed
with the Director that China is likely to change politically
over time in a democratic direction.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Lin is highly respected for his idealism about
democracy and for his serenity in the face of deep personal
tragedy. While a political prisoner during authoritarian
times, Lin's mother and two of his young daughters were
murdered on the highly symbolic date of February 28 in what
is widely believed to have been a politically motivated
killing that has never been solved. Lin has generally
avoided partisan politics since leaving the DPP in early 2006
over his frustration and disappointment with party leaders,
but he did put in brief appearances late in the campaigns of
his friends Chen Chu and Frank Hsieh when they were running
for mayor in Kaohsiung and Taipei last December. We would
not be surprised to see Lin make a similar appearance on
behalf of Frank Hsieh's presidential campaign.


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